Europe Would Spend Far Less Supporting Ukraine Than Yielding to Russia – NYP
Backing Ukraine through to victory is likely to cost Europe dramatically less than conceding to Moscow.
The Gaze reports this, referring to a new study referenced by the New York Post.
The analysis, titled “Europe’s Choice” and produced by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in partnership with Corisk, compares the long-term economic and security implications of two divergent scenarios: continued military support for Ukraine or a Russian-favorable settlement.
Researchers estimate that sustaining Ukraine’s war effort for four years would require between $606 billion and $972 billion from European governments. However, a Russian success, enabled by reduced Western assistance, could push costs for Europe as high as $1.4–1.8 trillion, nearly twice the price of continued aid.
The report argues that Europe must assume strategic leadership, especially in light of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the Trump administration, which analysts describe as disconnected from realities on the battlefield.
The researchers built projections on the premise that U.S. support for Kyiv may significantly diminish, forcing Europe to bear responsibility for Ukraine’s defense.
The study outlines a scenario in which Russia gradually advances due to insufficient aid to Ukraine. Under such conditions, Europe could face a wave of millions of Ukrainian refugees, resulting in enormous social and economic pressure on EU states.
A Russian victory would also reinforce Moscow’s strategic position, potentially redirecting its ambitions toward the Baltics or the Arctic, triggering a costly security build-up along NATO’s eastern flank.
According to the analysis, a decisive Ukrainian victory is attainable if Europe commits up to $972 billion over four years. This funding would enable the purchase of 8 million additional drones, 95 military brigades, and up to 2,500 new tanks, along with other equipment.
Such an outcome, the report notes, would allow refugees to return, encourage stability and reconstruction, and create conditions for renewed investment in Ukraine. By contrast, a frozen conflict or Russian victory would lock Europe into permanent financial obligations to Ukraine without restoring security on the continent.
The researchers also argue that part of the necessary resources could come from seizing and redirecting frozen Russian assets.
As The Gaze reported earlier, the European Union is preparing a new defense assistance package worth $92.7 million, set to be financed through profits generated from frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Read more on The Gaze: Using Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine's Reconstruction: Creating a Reparations Fund to Restore Justice