Robert Fico Rushes to Return to Leadership

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico left hospital on 31 May. He is returning to work despite suffering severe gunshot wounds in an assassination attempt two weeks prior and undergoing two lengthy surgical operations in the following days.

The government led by Robert Fico has been preparing the public for his return to leadership. On 27 May, it was announced that the Prime Minister's condition was improving.

To recap, the assailant shot Fico four times at close range during an open government session in the town of Handlová on 15 May. The attacker, 71-year-old Slovak writer Juraj Cintula, was apprehended at the scene and charged with attempted murder.

"Today's medical commission meeting confirmed a gradual improvement in the Prime Minister's health," the government reported without elaborating.

However, this seems to be a hasty rehabilitation process, given the patient's age and the severity of his injuries. Why is Fico so eager to resume his duties despite the serious nature of his wounds and the need for a slow recovery? The urgency seems warranted to avoid potential complications from an early return to active duties. It appears Fico is attempting to formally reclaim his leadership to either prevent something or expedite certain matters.

What could this be? Considering the pro-Russian views of the Slovak Prime Minister and the removal of Viktor Orbán's influence over Ukraine's EU accession, the reasons likely lie in this direction.

Notably, on 24 January 2024, before his visit to Ukraine, Robert Fico stated that he would inform his Ukrainian counterpart of Slovakia's objection to Ukraine's NATO membership, as he believed it would be "nothing but a basis for World War III." This meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal did take place on 24 January in the border city of Uzhhorod. It's worth mentioning that a NATO summit in the US is scheduled for mid-July, where significant announcements regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership are expected.

There are also closer dates to consider. The G7 Summit is scheduled for 13-15 June in Apulia, Italy. The Ukraine Peace Summit is to be held on 15-16 June in Lucerne, Switzerland. The European Council (EC) meeting will take place on 27-28 June in Brussels, Belgium. All these events are highly irritating to the Kremlin due to the prospect of increased support for Ukraine by key democratic nations. The EC meeting is particularly aggravating with the possibility that the processes frames of Ukraine's EU accession might be finalised there.

This follows Ukraine and Moldova being granted EU candidate status in June 2022, with accession talks opening in December 2023. The preliminary agenda for the European Council (EC) meeting on 27-28 June includes a second item on Ukraine. Almost all 27 member states have supported the start of Ukraine's EU accession talks during the General Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg on 25 June, ahead of the European Council meeting.

Belgium Pushes for Ukraine Negotiation Framework Amidst Hungarian Opposition

Belgium, holding the EU presidency for the first six months of this year, is insisting on starting negotiations within its term. However, Hungary, which will take over the presidency from 1 July, is doing everything possible to delay the process, trying to block key financial and military support to the Ukrainian government from the EU.

EU's leading countries are no longer willing to tolerate Budapest's blackmail. Consequently, the leaders of key EU nations plan to punish Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán by assigning Hungary a minor portfolio in the next European Commission.

Currently, this policy is being implemented by the European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, who represents Hungary in the European Commission. He is considered entirely loyal to Viktor Orbán and, therefore, has a pro-Russian stance. Politico reports that there is a move to ensure that neither Várhelyi nor any other Hungarian representative holds this position in the next European Commission.

The situation remains fluid, but after a two-hour discussion among EU ambassadors on 29 May regarding the negotiation frameworks for Ukraine and Moldova, it seems progress has been made.

Previously, EU countries could not reach a consensus on approving the negotiation frameworks for the two candidate countries. However, on 29 May, a timeframe for agreement at the ambassadorial level was set for the first week of June. This is being pushed by Belgium, which holds the EU presidency until the end of June.

Despite opposition from Hungary and possibly Slovakia, nearly all 27 member states support holding the first intergovernmental conferences (IGC) – official negotiations – after the EU affairs ministers meet on 25 June.

Budapest continues to vehemently block Ukraine's progress but overlooks Moldova's advancement. Specifically, Hungary has requested additional changes to the draft agreement, citing 11 bilateral issues concerning minority rights, trade, anti-corruption measures, agricultural regulations, the internal market, and good neighbourly relations. These demands are evidently artificial and have been repeatedly used by Budapest to block EU assistance to Ukraine.

The next meeting of EU ambassadors is expected to take place on 5 June, where the discussion on the negotiation framework and the draft agreement will continue.

How does Robert Fico fit into this almost technical process? It appears that the stakes are rising, prompting Fico to assist Orbán. Having only one opponent to Ukraine's EU accession seems peculiar; adding another opponent might create the impression of a broader movement. The most recent case of EU accession is Croatia, which took ten years, from 2003 to 2013, to join the EU. Croatia also did this after a devastating war, but it seems Ukraine has every chance to complete this process much faster and receive the necessary transitional conditions.

How much can Fico hinder this? Following mass protests in Slovakia against restrictions on freedom of speech and increased authoritarianism, he has fewer arguments to impede his eastern neighbour – Ukraine.