Wagner Leaves, but Does Not Say Goodbye
The largest Russian private military company, Wagner Group, has fallen into a trap. Some ended up in neighboring Belarus, while others are seeking positions in other Russian PMCs or preparing to go on safari in Africa. Meanwhile, the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has played dead possum.
On July 4th, during a broadcast on the state television channel, a representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Andriy Yusov, announced that, according to the Directorate's data, Prigozhin "will be in Belarus." Yushov also mentioned the possibility of relocating the legal address of Wagner PMC, with Belarus being used as a logistical hub for potential deployment of militants to other directions and possibly to other continents, including Africa.
Photo: Lieutenant-General Serhii Naiev on the Ukraine-Belarussia border. Source: Serhii Naiev, official FB account
On the same day, Lieutenant-General Serhii Naiev, the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, hinted that the Ukrainian military takes the threat of Wagner fighters appearing in Belarus seriously. He stated, "...a decision has been made to strengthen the northern border of our state with personnel and combat equipment," in a video posted on his official Facebook account.
But what about inside Russia? Firstly, it seems that the honeymoon between Wagner and Putin has been put on hold. On June 30th, Roskomnadzor (the state agency responsible for media and internet censorship) blocked media outlets associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin, such as RIA FAN, "Politics Today," "Economy Today," "Nevsky Novosti," and "Narodnye Novosti." All of these resources appeared on the registry of banned websites, although the reason for restricting access was not specified. Additionally, the website of the media group "Patriot," which is close to Prigozhin, is also inaccessible in Russia.
Almost immediately after this, on July 3rd, Wagner representatives in their Telegram channels canceled their previous calls for recruiting fighters to the PMC. It is reported that this is related to the "temporary absence of Wagner PMC from a special military operation and the relocation to the Republic of Belarus."
So, is the high-profile story of Russia's largest PMC, Wagner, over? Not at all.
Operation "Relocation"
At the end of June, Prigozhin's private jet, along with another similar aircraft, landed in Minsk. On June 27th, Alexander Lukashenko spoke to the media about the specifics of relocating the "Wagnerites," and according to sources, he held a closed meeting with his long-time acquaintance, Prigozhin.
However, it would be a mistake to assume that the owner of Wagner PMC stayed in Belarus for long. He spent less than a day there, after which both planes returned to Russian territory, as if there was no "presidential word" about the possibility of Prigozhin and the "Wagnerites" going to Belarus.
Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may talk about his role as a peacemaker and urge people not to fear the "Wagnerites" on Belarusian territory. But the reality is different: Lukashenko was used as a mediator due to his significant dependence on the Kremlin and his formal "presidential" status. It was with the president of another state that Prigozhin was willing to negotiate.
The sudden appearance of Wagner camps on Belarusian territory does not necessarily mean that they will all be relocated there. It is more likely a form of separation. The most valuable Wagner personnel may remain in Belarus for a certain period as foreign mercenaries, while the majority of the PMC personnel will integrate into regular units of the Russian security forces.
Kremlin's Response Unfolding
The Russian leadership has found itself unable to swiftly carry out decimation, the harsh punishment of every tenth rebel according to Roman tradition. Therefore, the Kremlin will gradually neutralize the influence of its recent proxy, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Wagner Group units are already transferring heavy weaponry to regular units, and Wagner's recruitment centers in various regions of Russia are being closed down.
Prigozhin's company, Concord, which previously served as a contractor for the Russian Ministry of Defense in organizing military personnel nutrition, has ceased to be involved in those operations. This dealt a significant blow to the rebellious baron-bandit's income stream.
As previously mentioned, Russian intelligence agencies have shut down media outlets owned by Prigozhin. His media capabilities are often underestimated. However, both the bot and troll factory in Olgino, as well as the informational portals and the production of "patriotic films," notably aided the "ordinary businessman from St. Petersburg" in his ascent to the top of the Russian Olympus.
Thus, Prigozhin has been stripped of three crucial levers that sustained his influence:
- Access to state funding from Putin.
- Access to heavy weaponry and ammunition supplies.
- Access to media resources.
Why Such a Bitter Political Suicide?
It is highly doubtful that Prigozhin and his company seriously contemplated capturing Moscow. It was more likely a bargaining chip and an attempt to elevate his position in the grand Russian domestic political game. However, the bluff proved inconsistent and now resembles a regrettable political suicide.
The first to exploit Prigozhin's mistake was Victor Zolotov, a close associate of Putin and the commander of the Russian National Guard. Zolotov promptly stated the necessity of arming his subordinates with heavy armored vehicles. Overall, the "March of Justice," as Prigozhin dubbed his private army's touch down, had already posed numerous questions to Russia, for which it was difficult to find answers. Perhaps that's why comparisons are now being made in the West between Prigozhin's uprising and Benito Mussolini's "March on Rome," although it's doubtful that the owner of Wagner knows who Mussolini is.
One of the main questions is how Putin should behave less than a year before the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024. The Kremlin leader has long been accustomed to living and working in a monopolistic political environment, where most opponents have been eliminated, imprisoned, or forced into exile. Surprisingly, it is under these circumstances that Prigozhin's insurrections may pose a more serious challenge to Russian authority than it initially appears.
Therefore, the Kremlin propaganda machine will erase mentions of Wagner's involvement in the battles in Donbas, while the security forces will suppress any budding political activity. But what will happen to Wagner's projects in Africa (Mali, Central African Republic), the Middle East (Syria), and Latin America (Venezuela)?
Wagner and Great Politics
A serious mistake is to believe that Prigozhin was ready to end Wagner's involvement in the war against Ukraine. It is precisely this war that elevated him to the higher ranks of Russian politics. Prigozhin is a war criminal, and this is something that no one should forget. As well as the fact that the criminal-military company he created leaves a bloody trail in various countries.
But there is good news for Kyiv. In particular, a number of experts in the West believe that Ukrainians will now have more arguments to receive assistance, as the whole world has seen that Russia is weaker than previously thought.
At first glance, it seems that Western intelligence services missed the plot involving Prigozhin. But that's not entirely true. Now the United States and their European partners have public grounds to adjust their policy towards Russia. However, of course, it will take some time for that.
For example, the phone conversation between CIA Director Burns and the head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin indicates that Washington has clearly focused on the issues of nuclear security and the inviolability of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Specifically, the part of Russian nuclear forces that were relocated to Belarus. There was also some concern about the storage bases of nuclear weapons located near the route of Prigozhin's "march of justice."
Photo: No money - no party. Wagner stopped recruiting. Source: medialeaks.ru
Wagner's Reincarnation
Right now, the Kremlin is trying to accomplish two tasks simultaneously. First, to use a part of the "Wagnerites" as a proxy tool to intimidate the West. Their possible deployment in Belarus, where Putin promised to move a certain amount of tactical nuclear weapons, could create significant psychological tension for Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Second, to reboot a power system that has proven to be openly ineffective.
The combination of weapons of mass destruction with the presence of fighters from military-criminal structures turns Belarus into a platform of destructive influence on European security. By the way, this aligns with Lukashenko's interests, as he has nothing to lose after the 2020 campaign and worsening relations with the US and EU. On the other hand, there are growing hopes in the West that the well-known Leninist principle of political action, "The worse, the better," will be implemented in Russia.
At the same time, Putin will try to reboot his power system, which did not withstand the crash test by Prigozhin. Considering Putin's traditional reluctance to make personnel decisions that would give the impression that someone is pressuring him, August 2023 may become another dramatic month for Russia. The loyalty check in the Russian law enforcement agencies yielded uncertain results.
In fact, the first signs have already emerged. General Sergey Surovikin has not appeared in public since Prigozhin's uprising, and there are speculations surrounding his fate. It is known that he was interrogated because he was believed to be the one who supported Prigozhin the most.
Surovikin is a very complex figure. He holds the second-highest military rank in Russia, Army General, just like the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
At the time of Prigozhin's rebellion, Surovikin was the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces. And these forces include not only tactical aviation but also missile defense, as well as the aviation component of the Russian nuclear triad. It was during Surovikin's command that Wagner received the most resources and media support during the invasion of Ukraine, from October 2022 to January 2023.
And what about Wagner itself? In Russia, there is a great saying for this: "There should no empty holy place." (Nature abhors a vacuum). We will see the reincarnation of this private military company. Because without proxy forces and hybrid operations, Putin will not survive.
As they say, to be continued.