A Dramatic August for Trump: The Schedule Decides Almost Everything
In the last week of August, several events converged around the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, which could play the role of game-changers for the 2023 election campaign. Several legal proceedings involving Trump as the accused are currently underway. In one of the cases, by noon on August 25th, Trump and a group of associates are to surrender to authorities in the state of Georgia. Simultaneously, Trump enjoys fervent support from those voters who stand by the Republicans, despite the legal issues. There is also significant resistance within the Republican party against the 45th President's attempt to become the 47th president as well.
Loudest accusations were presented on August 14th by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from the state of Georgia. These accusations involve a conspiracy in which Trump participated to overturn the 2020 presidential elections.
These charges encompass some events detailed in the indictment by U.S. Special Prosecutor John "Jack" Smith on August 1st, 2023. Previously, Smith had also accused Trump of mishandling classified documents, and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg accused him of paying money to a porn star. In all three cases, Donald Trump has not pleaded guilty.
Photo: District Attorney Fani Willis is pursuing Trump under a law originally designed to combat organized crime. Source: Twitter Fani Willis
Legal Pursuits in the Spotlight
The grand jury's indictment, approved on August 14th, accuses Trump and 18 others, including former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and former Department of Justice official Jeffrey Clark, of racketeering and other crimes. What's most striking is the application of the so-called RICO law in this case, a special statute typically used against organized crime, resembling the mafia.
On the same day, late in the evening of August 14th, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis requested that all accused individuals surrender to county authorities by August 25th. She stated her intention to prosecute all 19 defendants under one case and ask the judge for a court review over the next 6 months. In essence, she aims for a swift trial. Interestingly, Fani Willis has significant experience using RICO, but this marks her RICO-debut in a case involving politics.
Fani Willis, a Democratic district attorney, was elected to her position in 2020. She spent two and a half years investigating how Trump and his associates exerted pressure on officials in the Georgia election commission for two months to overturn President Joe Biden's victory, which he secured in the state by a slim margin.
Trump turned to his own social media platform, Truth Social, to respond to the accusations. "The witch hunt continues!" he noted on August 15th. He also accuses Prosecutor Willis of political bias, given her affiliation with the Democratic party.
On one hand, Donald Trump cites his right to freedom of speech. However, political analysts point out that it's not about freedom of speech but about Trump's actions. Specifically, the pressure he allegedly exerted on government officials in Georgia in a bid to secure extra votes.
So, the 77-year-old Trump has been accused of racketeering, a central point of the indictment, which includes 161 specific acts in furtherance of the conspiracy. These charges carry a penalty of 5 to 20 years in prison, but it's expected that Trump would face a much shorter sentence than the maximum punishment, assuming the accusations are proven.
This legal process, like others involving Trump, won't be swift. The charges are too serious and allegations of political bias are too numerous. Thus, the process must be conducted flawlessly.
At the same time, a possible sequence of court hearings will unfold against the backdrop of the pre-election race. The most sensitive moment lies in whether the first court hearing will take place before the start of the primaries, the internal party elections for the Republican party candidate. The primary start date is mid-January 2024. Although the initial high-profile events and voter interactions have already begun in early August. And the prosecutor requested the judge to schedule the hearings for January 2nd, 2024.
Another crucial legal collision arises. If Trump is found guilty in one or both federal cases and manages to win the 2024 White House election, theoretically, he could pardon himself. Such a precedent hasn't been set, and many lawyers believe that if such a self-pardon occurs, it's highly likely to be contested in the US Supreme Court.
Photo: The graph matters. Source: The Gaze. Bloomberg, Associated Press, Frontloading HQ, court documents
Voters Believe
Interestingly, amid the intense legal battles, the positions of voters who support the Republican Party and its current politicians seem to be diverging. In particular, influential Republican Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana stated in a CNN interview on August 20 that he believes former President Donald Trump should step out of the 2024 Republican Party presidential race. He referred to recent polls indicating that Trump is trailing behind Joe Biden.
Cassidy isn't alone in this sentiment. Many Republicans are wary of Trump's legal troubles, understanding that it could bolster Democrats' ability to rally their voters. However, how does Trump respond to such challenges? He continues to lead among Republican candidates.
According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month, Trump garnered 47% of Republican votes nationwide, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped six percentage points from July to only 13%. None of the other candidates participating in the initial party primaries on Wednesday managed to break out of the single-digit figures.
The CBS poll* yielded even tougher results. Ron DeSantis had only 16% of the respondents' support compared to Trump's 62%. Other Republican politicians received one-sign support figures.
Photo: Control package – currently with Trump. Source: CBS
What is Trump doing with such cards in hand? He declined the televised debates scheduled for August 23 in Milwaukee, hosted by Fox News, and instead announced he would do an online interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. This move has upset both the National Republican Committee and Fox News. However, Trump doesn't want to lose his dominant support, which he already has. Meanwhile, other Republican leaders are still competing to make it to the semi-finals.
Where will this battle be fought? That's quite an intriguing question. According CBS News/YouGov survey the most sensitive topics for voters are combating inflation, reducing violent crime, and curbing illegal immigration. At least in terms of inflation, Trump has strong arguments. During his tenure, annual price growth ranged from 1.2% to 2.4%. In contrast, inflation under Joe Biden's rule escalated to 8% in 2022 after reaching 4.7% in 2021. Of course, any astute economist will remind us that the acceleration in inflation in 2021-2022 is a consequence of measures exactly Trump implemented to counter the impact of the pandemic. But this may not concern a significant portion of voters who feel the current rise in prices here and now.
Trump also has something to say about tackling illegal migration. At the very least, he can point to the construction of the border wall with Mexico. And it's not as crucial how effective that wall-building program was.
But perhaps the biggest influence on the race will come from the American judiciary. So, we are in for a prolonged legal drama.
* This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,061 U.S. adult residents interviewed between August 16-18, 2023, including 538 likely Republican primary voters. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error is ±3.0 points for the sample overall and ±5.7 points for likely Republican primary voters.