Blackmailing Hungary: Will Budapest Be Deprived of Its Voting Rights in the EU?

How far can a member state push the boundaries of EU unity before facing serious consequences? As Hungary continues to block sanctions and aid to Ukraine, the question arises: will the EU finally invoke Article 7 and strip Budapest of its voting rights, or will it once again shy away from punishing internal dissent?

Context and Preconditions of the Crisis Inside the EU

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU imposed sanctions on Russia. Hungary formally supported them, but Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had already expressed skepticism about their effectiveness. He argued that the sanctions harmed European economies more than Russia and called for their revision.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU significantly increased sanctions pressure. However, Hungary has repeatedly delayed the adoption of new sanctions packages or blocked their implementation.

In 2024, for instance, Budapest threatened to veto the extension of sanctions unless several Russian oligarchs, including Mikhail Fridman, were removed from the sanctions list.

Hungary heavily depends on Russian energy resources: approximately 85% of its gas and 80% of its oil come from Russia. Additionally, the Russian state-owned company Rosatom is involved in expanding Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant, further deepening ties between the two countries.

Ideologically, Orbán presents himself as a defender of national sovereignty against Brussels’ pressure. He openly criticizes the EU’s policy of integration and what he sees as interference in the internal affairs of member states, striving to maintain autonomy in decision-making.

The European Commission, in turn, has expressed concerns about the rule of law in Hungary, particularly regarding restrictions on judicial independence and media freedom.

As a result, Brussels has frozen the allocation of certain EU funds to Budapest — an essential lever of pressure on the Orbán government.

European Politics and the Crisis of Decisions

Hungary’s continued obstruction of EU sanctions policy is fueling deep divisions within the Union, raising questions about how far Brussels is willing to go to enforce unity.

In March 2025, Hungary once again exercised its veto power, threatening to block sanctions against over 2,000 Russian individuals unless several were removed from the list. Under pressure from other member states, the EU ultimately agreed to drop a few oligarchs, enabling the sanctions to be extended for another six months.

These repeated acts of defiance have reignited debate among EU countries about invoking Article 7 of the EU Treaty — a mechanism that could strip Hungary of its voting rights in the Council of the EU. Although this article exists to address severe and persistent violations of EU values, its application is extremely rare, as it requires unanimous consent from all other member states—a formidable political obstacle.

Countries like Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic have voiced support for tougher measures, arguing that Hungary’s actions threaten the integrity and credibility of the EU.

In contrast, Slovakia and several Balkan states have adopted a more cautious position, concerned that punitive steps could deepen internal divisions.

Austria and Italy also caution against complete isolation, warning that it could push Hungary closer to Russia and China — an outcome that would further complicate Europe’s already fragile geopolitical environment.

The EU now faces a delicate balancing act: defending its fundamental principles without triggering internal fragmentation or driving dissenting members into the orbit of rival powers.

The Ukrainian Dimension: What does this Struggle Mean for Kyiv?

Hungary’s decision to block financial aid to Ukraine and slow down the supply of weapons has far-reaching consequences—not only for Kyiv but for the European Union as a whole. Ukraine currently serves as a strategic shield, buying time for Europe to prepare for a potential escalation of its conflict with Russia.

Every month that the Ukrainian army holds off Russian advances gives EU member states the opportunity to boost defense budgets, strengthen their armed forces, and seek alternatives to energy dependence on Moscow.

However, without adequate support, Ukraine risks losing ground on the frontline—posing serious security challenges for the rest of Europe. A defeat or significant weakening of Ukraine would open the door to further Russian expansion, particularly toward the Baltic states and Poland, potentially provoking a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Blocking aid to Ukraine also threatens the EU’s internal stability. If member states are unable to find a mechanism to override Hungary’s veto, it could set a dangerous precedent—one that allows individual countries to blackmail the Union, undermining European unity in the long term.

The Future of Sanction Policy and EU Unity

Article 7 of the EU Treaty is a mechanism that can deprive a member state of its voting rights in the EU Council in cases of serious and systematic violations of the Union’s values. It involves two stages: a warning stage, where the EU formally notifies the country of its violations, and a sanction stage, in which voting rights may be suspended.

However, the final step requires unanimous approval from all other member states, which makes the process extremely difficult. To date, Article 7 has never been successfully implemented due to political risks and fears of deepening internal divisions.

Although the likelihood of invoking Article 7 remains low, support for this option is growing. The main obstacle is the concern that it would set a dangerous precedent and trigger an internal crisis within the EU.

As an alternative, some countries advocate for reforming the decision-making process to reduce the possibility of blackmail by individual members. Paris and Berlin are central to these efforts, with the ability to pressure Prime Minister Orbán through economic leverage and negotiations over financial assistance.

The threat from Russia and uncertainty about continued U.S. support are pushing the EU to reassess its defense and security architecture. Hungary’s obstruction has highlighted the urgent need to strengthen European strategic autonomy. As a result, EU leaders are increasingly considering the creation of a unified security decision-making mechanism that would bypass national vetoes. This could mark the beginning of a more integrated European defense policy, aimed at reducing reliance on the United States.

The EU is at a crossroads: it must either develop effective tools to resist internal blackmail or risk losing its credibility as a geopolitical actor. With the U.S. retreating from its traditional role as Europe's security guarantor, the burden falls on the EU to ensure cohesion, even on divisive issues such as sanctions and defense.

If Hungary escapes consequences once again, it could embolden other member states to adopt similar tactics, threatening the Union’s long-term unity and resilience.

 Ihor Petrenko, Expert at Kyiv-based United Ukraine Think Tank