Can the West Curb Russia’s Shadow Fleet?

Russia’s shadow fleet has become crucial for bypassing Western sanctions and keeping oil revenues flowing. As global scrutiny intensifies, can the West finally sink this secretive network—or will it remain a loophole too complex to close?

Following the imposition of wide-ranging sanctions by Western countries in response to the Kremlin’s aggressive policies, Russia has faced the serious threat of losing a significant portion of its foreign exchange earnings. Oil and gas sales account for a large share of the country’s state budget and reserves, making it essential for Moscow to maintain export volumes despite its political isolation.

In this context, the “shadow fleet” has become a kind of back door—enabling Russia to circumvent restrictions and evade official oversight.

These vessels frequently change flags, ownership, and GPS signals, using tactics that range from obscuring cargo origins to re-registering under shell companies. The goal is simple: to keep the flow of “oil money” that sustains the Russian economy—and funds military operations—moving.

The Russian Shadow Fleet as a Vital Economic Lifeline 

Aware of this system’s vulnerability to increasingly stringent sanctions, the Kremlin is working to build long-term protection. Chief among these tactics is re-registering vessels in so-called “friendly” jurisdictions that have not formally joined Western sanctions and, therefore, do not interfere with transactions or subject the vessels to close scrutiny.

Additionally, Russia has been purchasing large numbers of second-hand ships through offshore intermediaries to complicate ownership tracking.

Since all ships entering international waters require insurance, and major global insurers avoid Russian carriers due to sanctions risk, fictitious third-country insurers have emerged to service these “problematic” vessels without concern for reputational or legal consequences.

Operators also employ techniques such as disabling transponders, faking accidents, or changing IMO numbers to hide vessel routes and ties to Russia. The shadow fleet operates in a gray zone, skirting international norms thanks to this mix of legal manipulation and technical obfuscation.

Pressure on International Platforms

Western governments and institutions are not turning a blind eye. At the European Union level, new regulations are under discussion that would increase oversight of ships with suspicious registration histories and impose strict penalties on ports that assist shadow fleet operations.

In the United States, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is exerting additional pressure by levying multimillion-dollar fines and barring violators from the U.S. market. The United Kingdom, in coordination with NATO allies, is also creating mechanisms to blacklist vessels that breach the sanctions regime.

Joint intelligence sharing, tighter customs and border services coordination, and rising media scrutiny support these enforcement efforts. In response, the Kremlin is intensifying the secrecy of shadow operations, but each intercepted vessel damages Russia’s international standing.

Geopolitical Game and the Role of Third Countries

Russia is working diplomatically to ensure support—or at least neutrality—from countries unwilling to adopt Western sanctions. Chief among these are China, India, and various nations in the Middle East and Africa. These countries may not intend to violate global norms outright but are open to economic benefits, including discounted oil or access to Russian markets.

In many cases, buyers are willing to overlook the origin of goods in pursuit of profit. Russian diplomats continue to argue that sanctions are a “Western tool” that violates the principles of free trade. This narrative contributes to a gray area in international commerce, where the shadow fleet can find transit hubs and legal loopholes. Countries that facilitate the transshipment of Russian cargo risk facing secondary sanctions from the U.S. or EU. However, they often gamble that their role is minor or that geopolitical winds may shift in Moscow’s favor.

New Threats and Risks

Expanding the “shadow fleet” and multi-level schemes for circumventing sanctions pose real risks to the global economy and the security of maritime routes. The environmental threat is growing, as many ships in Russian orbit are technically outdated. An accident with an old tanker can lead to large-scale oil spills, damage to water resources, and harm to ecosystems. In addition, it creates an unfair competitive advantage over bona fide international carriers that comply with all the rules, while the “shadow” segment saves money by avoiding sanctions and formal inspections.

This spreads corruption schemes and contributes to the emergence of a whole “gray” network of global trade, where the real beneficiaries remain undisclosed. Russia, which is already under a barrage of international criticism, suffers increasing reputational losses when the facts of the detention of questionable vessels and the activities of “fictitious” carriers become public. But at the same time, the risk for those countries that help the Kremlin circumvent sanctions is growing, as they may become subject to secondary restrictions and lose access to developed markets.

The Kremlin's Evasion Tactics 

Russia is actively seeking ways to shield its exports. It’s establishing alternative routes that bypass European ports, developing maritime hubs with lenient inspection regimes, and offering significant discounts on raw materials to retain foreign buyers. The Kremlin’s diplomatic and propaganda arms are also hard at work persuading governments around the world to question the legitimacy of Western sanctions, framing them as “illegal” or politically motivated.

Simultaneously, Moscow is investing in cyber and information warfare to target maritime tracking systems, attempting to erase digital footprints and obscure shipping routes. These efforts allow the shadow fleet to pierce multiple layers of sanctions, but with every exposure, the system’s effectiveness weakens.

Will the West Hold the Line?

Public pressure in the U.S. and EU is growing, pushing governments to maintain a hard line against the Kremlin. Any backsliding or tolerance for sanctions evasion is a betrayal of solidarity with Ukraine. Yet, some in the business community—concerned about energy supplies and rising costs—advocate for loosening certain restrictions.

This tension creates opportunities for Moscow to exploit gaps in transatlantic unity. Still, most Western governments remain committed, with intelligence sharing and customs enforcement intensifying to identify and disrupt shadow fleet operations. Investigative journalists and watchdog groups are also crucial in exposing companies that risk their reputations by enabling Russia’s covert shipping.

Ultimately, the shadow fleet’s survival depends not only on technical evasion but also on whether the West can sustain a coordinated, uncompromising sanctions regime despite market volatility and political fatigue.

Will the West Have Enough Political Will?

Internal pressure in the US and the EU is constantly growing, as public opinion in many Western countries is leaning toward a hard line against the Kremlin. Concessions or ignoring the circumvention of sanctions are seen as incompatible with the principles of solidarity with Ukraine.

At the same time, big businesses, which fear energy shortages and rising oil prices, sometimes advocate for the “softening” of certain regulations. In this ambiguous situation, Moscow tries to find cracks in transatlantic unity.

However, the position of most governments remains consistent, and the exchange of information between intelligence agencies and customs services is intensifying to identify and block “shadow” routes. Many media and independent research organizations are conducting investigations aimed at uncovering Kremlin schemes and publicly disclosing companies that risk their reputations by cooperating with Russian “ghosts.”

Therefore, the fate of the “shadow fleet” depends not only on technical methods but also on the West's ability to maintain a tough sanctions policy for a long time despite the turbulence of global markets.

A War Beneath the Waves

Russia’s efforts to shield its shadow fleet are a predictable response to the devastating impact of sanctions, which are cutting deep into its oil-driven economy. In trying to preserve lost revenue streams, Moscow relies on a patchwork of outdated ships, fake companies, and illegal insurance. While each workaround buys time, it also increases Russia’s dependence on gray markets and deepens its global isolation.

If the international community can remain united—consistently punishing violators and closing off every loophole—the shadow fleet’s operational capacity and financial benefit will begin to crumble. However, an immediate collapse is unlikely. Many actors in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East continue to benefit from Russian oil and are reluctant to take sides in the broader geopolitical struggle.

What unfolds next will determine not only the fate of Russia’s ghost fleet but also the balance of economic and political power in the post-sanctions era.

Bohdan Popov, Expert at Kyiv-based United Ukraine Think Tank