ISW: Kremlin Exploits Ceasefire Narrative to Undermine Western Unity
The Kremlin is actively manipulating the discourse around a potential ceasefire in Ukraine in an effort to weaken the unity between Kyiv, Washington, and European allies.
The Gaze reports on this with reference to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW analysts report that Russian authorities have intensified their media outreach efforts in the West, seeking to present Russia’s proposed terms, effectively demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as reasonable compromises in the eyes of Western audiences.
President Vladimir Putin’s speech on May 11, along with recent interviews given by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to Western media outlets, are interpreted by ISW as calculated moves to insert Russian narratives into the Western information space. These narratives aim to create the impression that Moscow is open to dialogue while concealing the ongoing limitations of Russia’s military capacity and the absence of tangible progress on the battlefield over the past years.
Despite the language of diplomacy, Moscow continues to pursue its original war aims, which include the subjugation of Ukraine under Russian influence. ISW emphasizes that Russian leadership shows no genuine interest in a peace settlement that falls short of fulfilling these objectives. On the contrary, the Kremlin is attempting to leverage international discussions about a 30-day ceasefire to fragment the transatlantic consensus and increase pressure on Ukraine to make concessions.
Putin’s call to return to negotiations based on the so-called Istanbul protocols of early 2022 is particularly concerning. These proposals, long rejected by Kyiv, are widely regarded as a blueprint for Ukraine’s surrender. Moreover, Putin insists that any future talks address what Russia considers to be the “root causes” of the war – a narrative that deflects responsibility from Russia’s full-scale invasion and instead blames the West and NATO expansionism.
While promoting the idea of negotiations, Russia continues offensive operations across multiple frontlines. On May 11, Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, while Russian troops made incremental gains in the northern Kharkiv and southern Novopavlivka sectors. This contradiction between rhetoric and action reinforces ISW’s conclusion that the Kremlin is not negotiating in good faith but instead using peace talk gestures to support its strategic deception.
Read more on The Gaze: What lies behind Putin’s second so-called ceasefire