Leading in Uncertainty: US Election Race

The US presidential race will officially begin on 19 August. Until then, it is a period of courting and evaluations. On this date, the Democratic National Convention will commence, aiming to finalise the nomination of the party’s candidates for President and Vice-President. Currently, the party faces a challenging moment of self-assessment following the intense televised duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Republicans, it appears, have already made their choice.

One might say that before the Democratic National Convention, the Republican National Convention will take place from 15-18 July at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The only remaining uncertainty for this convention seems to be whom Donald Trump will choose as his Vice-Presidential candidate. As for the Democrats, they need to act not just quickly but with lightning speed.

Polls? Out of the eight regular polls conducted in June, four favoured Trump, three favoured Biden, and one was neutral. In all cases, the advantage of either was minimal. But this was before the 27 June debates, the first public debates of this campaign. There is also a growing sentiment that neither Biden nor Trump should be candidates. This view was even expressed by John Bolton, former National Security Advisor in the Trump administration, in his column.

Photo: President Joe Biden inspects the border. He is trying to take a proactive approach to the issue of illegal immigration, ahead of Donald Trump. Source: White House, X (formerly Twitter)

Trump Unchallenged by Fellow Republicans

Why does Trump have a virtually assured prospect of securing the candidate status? Because Trump has predominantly been supported by regional presidential primaries and caucuses that select delegates for the Republican National Convention. His closest competitor, Nikki Haley, received predominant support only in the District of Columbia and Vermont, leading her to withdraw her candidacy on 6 March.

Currently, Trump's shortlist for Vice-Presidential candidates seemingly includes three individuals:

• Doug Burgum (67), Governor of North Dakota: Also a policy advisor on energy for Trump’s campaign, Burgum is the wealthiest among governors, owing to inherited family business and earnings in IT and venture capital. In December 2023, Burgum made a strong statement in favour of continued support for Ukraine in its armed resistance against the Russian invasion, but under strict oversight: "It is in our interest that Ukraine succeeds in its war against Russia, but the US does not write blank cheques. There must be accountability. Every dollar that goes to Ukraine to help fight Putin must be tracked and accounted for."
• Marco Rubio (53), Senator from Florida: Of Cuban descent, with a legal education, Rubio has been in public service and politics since the age of 27. His parents left Cuba for the US in 1956 during Fulgencio Batista's dictatorship. Rubio condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and co-authored a bill against Russian proxies.
• J.D. Vance (39), Senator from Ohio: A former Marine and Iraq war veteran with a legal education, Vance worked in a law firm before venturing into IT and media investments. He authored the New York Times bestseller "Hillbilly Elegy," which was adapted into a Netflix film in 2020. In December, Vance stated on CNN's "State of the Union" that "it is in America's best interest... that Ukraine has to accept that some territories will need to be ceded to the Russians" to end the war.

Many analysts believe Trump should consider an African American and/or female candidate for Vice-President, but such individuals are absent from his shortlist.

A Supreme Challenge for the Free World

John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor, said:

"The coming days will determine whether Biden survives as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Even if he does, however, it is harder than before to deny he is in serious, potentially fatal political trouble – and at a time when the free world has rarely been in greater need of effective leadership."

Photo: “Last night didn’t change that, and that’s why so much is at stake in November,” said Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States on June 27. Source: Barack Obama, X (formerly Twitter)

Democrats Face Greater Uncertainty

The sequence of holding the Democratic convention after the Republican convention is expected in American politics as it is traditional. Officially, it is currently believed that the majority will propose Joe Biden for President and Kamala Harris for Vice-President. However, the 27 June televised debates appear to cast doubt on this choice, with even those affiliated with the Democratic Party publicly expressing reservations.

Reuters obtained three possible scenarios from Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a member of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and author of the book "Primary Politics":

Biden may decide to step down before being nominated at the convention;

Competitors may challenge Biden, needing to attract the delegates that the incumbent president gathered in primaries across various states and territories;

Alternatively, Joe Biden might step down after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. In that case, the Democratic National Committee would have to choose another candidate very quickly, as the election is in early November.

However, on X (formerly Twitter), the Democratic National Convention 2024 account states their intention to support Biden: “Only 50 days until convention week! Democrats from all 50 states and US territories will gather in Chicago to nominate Biden-Harris.”

This seems likely, as American political traditions do not include examples of rapid candidate changes shortly before elections. A similar dilemma arose in 2016 with both Biden and Trump present on the board. At that time, neither party dared to change their candidates mid-game, believing that such a swift change would increase the risk of defeat despite any potential shortcomings of the candidates.

But are there truly strong alternatives to Biden?

The name most frequently mentioned is the current Vice-President. As a black woman, Kamala Harris would ostensibly garner support from women and African American voters. However, polls indicate that all the negative sentiments attributed to Biden also affect Harris.

Therefore, some Democrats are actively promoting Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as a candidate. She currently appears less appealing than Harris but it’s important to consider that a governor, even of a large state, is far less known in the media than a Vice-President. Whitmer's media presence could change significantly within a few weeks if the Democratic Party announces her as the candidate.

Recent public opinion polls indicate that voters still perceive Biden's alternative candidates in a less personalised manner. Such surveys seem more like polls on perceptions or rejections of Trump. For example, a Data for Progress poll, conducted the day after the debates and cited by Newsweek, included just over a thousand potential voters, including nearly four hundred potential Democratic voters, with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

The poll shows that Democratic voters' approval of Joe Biden has declined by 12 percentage points over the past four months to 51%. This is not solely due to the debates but they have also contributed. In a head-to-head with Trump, Biden garners 45% to Trump's 48%. This difference is within the margin of error, indicating that the chances remain approximately equal.

Among the Democratic contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris (59) also scores 45% against Trump's 48% in a direct contest.

Photo: Vice President Kamala Harris on June 15: “I am heading to Switzerland for a summit on peace in Ukraine. I look forward to supporting Ukraine's efforts to secure a just and lasting peace with our allies and partners.” Source: Kamala Harris, X (formerly Twitter)

All other potential Democratic candidates currently have lower levels of support, but Trump's chances against these opponents are also lower:

• Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (52 years old) – 44% against Trump’s 46%. However, the poll showed about 9% of undecided voters in this matchup, which is a significant reserve for Whitmer.
• Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (42 years old) – 44% against Trump’s 47%.
• New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (55 years old) – 44% against Trump’s 46%.
• California Governor Gavin Newsom (56 years old) – 44% against Trump’s 47%.
• Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (64 years old) – 43% against Trump’s 46%.
• Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (59 years old) – 43% against Trump’s 46%.
• Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (51 years old) – 43% against Trump’s 46%.

Therefore, the situation looks as though the Democrats need to work a miracle for their top candidate to gain an advantage over Donald Trump. While Biden’s position is not yet strong enough for real victory, it is still stronger than that of his fellow party members.

Alternatively, the Democrats may need to choose someone from the second tier of potential candidates for unified strong support. Almost all notable alternative candidates have roughly the same starting levels of trust. However, each has certain advantages over Biden and Harris, as they are not yet at the pinnacle of national media visibility and recognition, but only at its base. It's worth comparing their potential for further growth, whereas Trump's level of trust is already more or less fixed.

Thus, the race will be very tight, with a minimal margin separating the winner from the loser. The likelihood that Joe Biden remains the Democratic candidate is still very high. Fifty days until the Democratic convention is enough time for them to make a final decision, which will certainly be influenced not only by public opinion polls but also by the attitudes of key party donors. We continue to watch.