Nawrocki – Conservative Revenge in Poland: What Does it Mean for Ukraine and Eastern Europe

The presidential elections in Poland, which took place on June 1, 2025, became not only a domestic political turning point, but have shaped all of Eastern Europe.

The victory of Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and candidate from Law and Justice political party, who was supported by Donald Trump, marks Poland's return to ideological traditionalism.

Despite the narrow margin — 50.89% to 49.11% for Rafał Trzaskowski — this result opens a new era. Warsaw's geopolitical line is changing, shifting toward Washington rather than Brussels, which has direct consequences for the region and, in particular, for Ukraine.

Poland as the Leader of Eastern Europe After Russia’s full-scale war

Poland's geopolitical role has grown over the last decade. From the edge of the European periphery, it has become one of the main arbiters of security on NATO's eastern flank. After 2022, Warsaw cemented its image as a key regional player: a logistics hub for Western aid to Ukraine, the main transit point for American initiatives in Eastern Europe, and a supporter of a firm anti-Russian stance.

At the same time, Poland has constantly balanced between participation in European security mechanisms and a separate, “sovereign” line similar to that of Orbán. And it is here that the result of the 2025 presidential election became crucial: Poland is not going into isolation, but it will not act in perfect sync with Brussels either.

In the economic and defense spheres, Poland is the undisputed leader among Eastern European countries. A security budget exceeding 4% of GDP, large-scale rearmament, systematic industrial capacity building, and agricultural expansion all create an impression of political maturity and ambition for autonomous influence.

Despite his declarative commitment to these vectors, Nawrocki ideologically brings other priorities to them: less integration into European rules, more into bilateral relations with the US. This changes the logic of Poland's regional leadership from pro-Western to a national hub of influence.

A Reliable Partnership for Ukraine, but not without Nuances

As an ally of Ukraine, Poland has been one of its most reliable partners to date. From the first days of the Russian invasion, it became a logistical rear, a humanitarian refuge, and a political advocate in Brussels and Washington. However, Nawrocki's rhetoric carries a change in tone — not a break, but a distancing.

He acknowledges the terrorist nature of Russia's actions, but demands that Ukraine take historical responsibility for Volhynia, questions the prospect of NATO membership, and openly signs declarations on the inadmissibility of such expansion. This points to a possible breakdown in the strategic partnership: support may remain in the military sphere, but weaken in the political sphere.

The Elections in Poland Might Became a Catalyst for Change

The results of the June 1 elections confirmed the ideological shift. Karol Nawrocki, who was supported by 10,606,682 Poles, won thanks to the mobilization of the right-wing electorate, Trump's support, the transfer of votes from the far right, and the weakness of Tusk's government. Rafal Trzaskowski, with 10,237,177 votes, lost a battle in which identities, rather than programs, competed. The turnout of 71.7% — one of the highest in Poland's recent history — demonstrated the deep division of society into two camps: the pro-Western liberal center and the nationalist periphery.

The Winner's Political Views

Nawrocki's position on Russia is not pro-Russian in the direct sense. He recognizes it as an aggressor, calls the Kremlin's actions imperialist terror, and the West's policy naive. But despite all his criticism of Moscow, Nawrocki avoids direct confrontation with Putin. When asked if he would shake Putin's hand, he said, “It depends on Poland's interests.” This is the approach of a pragmatist, not an ideologue.

His statement about wanting to be present at the negotiating table between the US, Russia, and Ukraine on behalf of the EU demonstrates Poland's ambition for subjectivity in the post-war order. But at the same time, he avoids commitments regarding Ukraine's accession to alliances, which objectively plays into the Kremlin's logic.

Nawrocki's views on Ukraine are a combination of harsh historical demands, revisionism, and social protectionism. In his vision, Ukrainians must prove their “commitment to friendship” by acknowledging guilt for historical crimes, not claiming special conditions in the EU, and not competing with Polish farmers in the agricultural market.

He criticizes benefits for refugees, questions the effectiveness of humanitarian aid, and opposes Warsaw's political protectorate over Kyiv. At the same time, he recognizes the need for military support and even declares his readiness to expand it. But he adds: only within the limits of Polish interests.

Nawrocki's interpretation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is devoid of romanticism. It is not a war of good against evil, but a geopolitical catastrophe caused, in his words, by the “stupidity of the European elites” and Donald Tusk personally.

Navrotsky does not deny Poland's involvement in providing assistance, but seeks to move the conflict into a phase of negotiations, where Warsaw will act as an arbitrator rather than a party. He supports the principle of Ukraine as a buffer rather than an ally. In this context, his rhetoric about a peace agreement, business participation in Ukraine's recovery, and the need for “principled realism” is shaping a new reality, which is sometimes overly pragmatic.

Geopolitical Changes under the New Leader

After Navrotsky comes to power, the tone of Poland's foreign policy will change. It will be difficult for Tusk's government to implement its pro-European initiatives under the presidential veto. Warsaw will increasingly move away from collective decision-making mechanisms in the EU and focus on bilateral alliances, primarily with the US.

Poland's presidency of the EU Council may be undermined by disputes between the president and the government. And the unity of the Polish position on sanctions, military procurement, and security guarantees may be undermined.

Poland's new geopolitical profile is that of a player with its own vision of order, which does not necessarily coincide with the European one. Its new role is not that of a regional integrator, but rather an independent platform of influence. This poses new challenges for Ukraine: maintaining military cooperation, containing conflicts in the economy, and neutralizing the risks of historical enmity. And most importantly, learning to work with two sides of Poland: the liberal government and the conservative presidency.

Igor Popov, head of United Ukraine Think Tank, expert on political and security issues