New Sanctions against Russia – How they Reduce its Ability to Wage War

New EU sanctions against Russia, scheduled for June 27, 2025, were aimed at restricting Russia's access to financial resources and technologies, but its adoption was postponed. 

These measures are intended to restrict Russia's access to financial resources and technologies, which is critical to ending the war in Ukraine.

Sanctions against Russia, imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, are a key tool of the international community to weaken Russia's economic and military capabilities. They are part of the strategy of the international community, in particular Ukraine's partner countries, to end Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. Sanctions remain one of the key tools for putting pressure on Russia, and their impact is already having a significant effect on the aggressor country's economy. However, as before, the process of adopting new restrictions faces internal challenges within the EU, in particular due to the position of individual member states.

On June 27, 2025, the European Union planned to introduce the 18th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, aimed at further weakening its economic and military capabilities, but its adoption was postponed due to the position of Slovakia, which effectively blocked the vote.

The Main Areas of the New Sanctions have been Identified

The new package of sanctions prepared by the European Commission targets key sectors of the Russian economy – energy and banking. The restrictions apply not only to the internal economic activities of the Russian Federation, but also to transactions related to the Nord Stream project, which was previously an important tool for energy blackmail against Europe. These measures are intended to further isolate Russia on the international stage by limiting its access to the financial resources and technologies needed to support its military machine.

The energy sector remains the backbone of the Russian economy, despite the country's attempts to diversify its revenues. Sanctions targeting this sector limit Russia's ability to export oil and gas, as well as to obtain modern equipment for the extraction and processing of energy resources.

Restrictions in the banking sector complicate international transactions, affecting the ability of Russian companies and the state to raise capital. These measures are particularly noticeable in the context of existing sanctions, which are gradually depleting Russia's economic reserves.

The European Commission insists that this package of sanctions will not be changed, despite resistance from some EU member states. This position demonstrates the determination of European institutions to counter Russian aggression, although internal contradictions within the EU may slow down the implementation process.

Obstacles to Sanctions: Slovakia's Position

At a meeting of EU ambassadors on June 27, 2025, Slovakia proposed postponing the adoption of the 18th package of sanctions. The main reason was concern about the possible negative consequences for the country's economy, in particular due to the impact of the proposed RePowerEU legislation. This legislation, aimed at accelerating the EU's transition to renewable energy sources, could complicate the situation for countries that are still dependent on Russian energy sources, including Slovakia.

Slovakia, like some other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, has historically been dependent on Russian gas and oil. Despite the gradual transition to alternative energy sources, the rapid introduction of new sanctions could cause economic difficulties for such countries. Bratislava insists on the need to find a compromise solution that would take into account its national interests. This demonstrates the difficulty of reaching consensus in the EU, where each member state has the right to veto sanctions decisions, as well as the intensification of Russian agents of influence in Europe, who are making every effort to counteract the EU's joint actions in support of Ukraine.

What is the Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy?

The sanctions imposed by the international community since 2014, and especially after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, are already having a significant impact on the Russian economy. According to The Telegraph, the Russian economy is showing signs of decline, as confirmed by both Western analysts and internal assessments by Russian institutions.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank of Russia are warning of the risk of recession caused by a number of factors, the main ones being inflation, labor shortages, and the credit crisis. Consumer price growth in Russia is accelerating due to limited access to imported goods, the devaluation of the ruble, and disruptions in logistics chains. This reduces the purchasing power of the population and increases the cost of production.

The labor shortage in Russia reaches 2.6 million people. This is due to migration, mobilization, and war losses, which reduce the productivity of the economy. At the same time, businesses in Russia are facing an increase in debt due to limited access to international financial markets and high interest rates within the country.

These problems have forced the Russian leadership to recognize the need to reduce war spending. At the summit in Minsk, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is forced to revise its military budgets due to economic constraints. This was the first public acknowledgment that sanctions are indeed affecting Russia's ability to wage war.

Why is it Important to Increase Sanctions Pressure Now?

Russia's economic vulnerability creates a unique opportunity for the international community. The sanctions already in place have proven effective, but to achieve maximum results, it is necessary to act quickly and in a coordinated manner.

Experts believe that it is during this period that Ukraine's partner states must act as quickly as possible to take advantage of Russia's economic weakness. The synchronization of sanctions, as mentioned by Zelensky, is critical to ensuring a unified approach to pressure on Russia. This includes not only economic restrictions, but also personal sanctions against individuals who support aggression, as well as measures against companies that circumvent sanctions through third countries.

Despite significant progress in sanctions policy, serious challenges remain. The position of countries such as Slovakia shows that the economic interests of individual states can slow down the decision-making process. To overcome these obstacles, the EU must develop compensation mechanisms for countries that suffer losses due to sanctions, for example, through subsidies for the transition to alternative energy sources. In addition, it is important to strengthen control over the implementation of sanctions. Circumvention of sanctions through intermediary countries such as China, India, or Türkiye remains a serious problem.

The economic impact of previous sanctions is already noticeable: according to the European Commission, Russia's oil and gas revenues have fallen by 80%, inflation exceeds 10%, and interest rates have reached 21%. The Russian president has acknowledged the need to reduce military spending, confirming the effectiveness of the sanctions. Russia's economic vulnerability, confirmed by statements from its own leadership and analysts, creates a unique opportunity to end the war. Increasing pressure on Russia right now could be a decisive step toward ending the war and restoring peace in Ukraine.

Anton Kuchukhidze, political scientist and foreign policy analyst, expert at the “United Ukraine” Think Tank