No Changes on the Information Front?

While military experts say that the fighting on the frontline of the Russian-Ukrainian war has "stabilized," Russia continues to try to turn the tide in its favor. The Russians began to realize that they would not be able to achieve their goals of occupation and subjugation by purely military means last year. Therefore, they started looking for alternative methods, and terrorism came to the fore. Massive attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure marked the winter of 2022-2023. Russia concentrated its efforts on the energy sector, leading to blackouts in Ukrainian cities and villages. Akin strategy aimed to break the will of Ukrainians to resist and facilitate the occupation of Ukrainian territories. However, the result of outright terrorism didn't satisfy the Russian leadership. Russia shifted to a combination of different approaches aimed at applying information and psychological pressure on Ukrainians.

The information aspect of warfare is especially consequential given the increased digitalization of modern societies. Today, information is disseminated almost instantly. Accordingly, any propaganda can have a deep impact on the state of public consciousness, which, in turn, affects the state of the armed forces. Another integral aspect of information warfare is cybersecurity. Breaches in cybersecurity can inflict significant damage. With this, the Russian side is actively using hacker attacks on Ukraine. A vivid example of such attacks was the disruption of the Ukrainian mobile network Kyivstar on December 11, 2023, as a result of a cyber attack by Russian hackers. These factors indicate the shifting of the war to an increasingly informational sphere.

A New Information Level of War

The Russian-Ukrainian war is the first large-scale military conflict to be covered instantly by the latest information platforms, including YouTube, Telegram, and TikTok. It affects the nature of information influence and psychological special operations carried out to support the conduct of hostilities.

Since the first days of full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the Russian side has been actively using propaganda tools designed to exert psychological pressure on Ukrainian society. At the same time, they have changed significantly over almost two years. While initially, when the Russian side was confident of an imminent victory, propaganda focused on "Ukraine's looming surrender" and "invincibility of the Russian army," after prolonged hostilities, the nature of propaganda changed significantly. Akin changes prove the Russian aggressors' willingness to learn from their experience.

At the moment, Russian information pressure doesn't aim to promote any favorable attitudes toward Russia but to sow discord, panic, and depression among Ukrainians.

The key areas of Russian information and psychological influence as of the fall of 2023 are as follows:

• intimidation of Ukrainians with large-scale shelling, advanced weapons, and increased mobilization among citizens of the aggressor state;
• the narratives claiming the West grew wary of supporting Ukraine;
• the negative situation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, problems in the Ukrainian army, discord, and depression.

However, the primary idea of Russian information and psychological influence is the alleged conflict among the military and political leadership of Ukraine. At the moment, Russia is focusing its efforts on this narrative.

Changes in Russian Propaganda

It is worth noting that Russian propaganda acts unconventionally and constantly seeks to reinforce its messages with the help of external sources. For example, they monitor the Ukrainian information space and collect and analyze all statements by public and political figures to use them in their information warfare. Since there is no censorship in Ukraine (even under martial law), it is not difficult to find the necessary messages among public and political figures critical of the government.

Russia also utilizes the foreign press when they publish controversial publications. It is not difficult to find points and quotes to build the concepts necessary for propagandists (e.g., about the "abandonment of Ukraine" or "failure of the Armed Forces").

The tools of information influence are also quite diverse. Russia uses numerous fakes. For example, they stage videos with allegedly Ukrainian military personnel talking about the "leadership's betrayal." They also use specially created anonymous telegram channels allegedly run by Ukrainian military personnel. Elements of data falsification are also occasionally used, such as video messages from Ukrainian officials using deep-fake technology.

It is important to note that Russian information influence is adapting to new conditions. Since they have realized that the position expressed by the Russians results in hostility from Ukrainians, they use pseudo-Ukrainian sources as repeaters of the necessary messages. For example, they utilize fake military personnel or anonymous citizens who use the Ukrainian language to increase trust.

The most important area of Russian information pressure is countering mobilization. It uses all available information platforms to achieve this goal. The Russians propagandize against mobilization and provide recommendations on how to avoid it.

In general, Russian information and psychological special operations should not be underestimated, as they are constantly improving their approaches and methodology, using a wide range of tools and instruments, and investing significant resources in their projects. One should use only verified and reliable sources of information, actively practicing discernment regarding various narratives.