Why the Quick Lifting of Sanctions on Russia Before Concluding a Full and Stable Peace Agreement Opens the Path to a New War

The quick lifting of sanctions on Russia without a full peace agreement will not bring peace, but will only give the Kremlin a pause to restore forces and prepare a new wave of aggression against Ukraine and Europe

The modern Russian strategy is a strategy of long waiting, in which any period of weakening external pressure is used not for internal transformation, but for restoring resources and planning the next wave of aggression. This is precisely why discussions about the possible quick easing of sanctions after a hypothetical "ceasefire" create critical risks for the security of Ukraine and the European Union.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly proven that it regards a truce not as a tool for seeking peace, but as a pause for regrouping. In this context, the Western sanctions policy becomes one of the key levers of deterrence, and its reckless rollback is capable of turning any diplomatic initiative into a tool of Russian revanchist policy.

The Premature Lifting of Sanctions Will Restore Financial Flows That Are Directly Converted into Military Resources

The Russian economy remains a wartime economy, where the share of the defense budget already exceeds the levels of the USSR at the end of the Cold War. Any significant easing of sanctions means a rapid growth in budget revenues through an increase in the export of energy resources, the restoration of access to transport logistics, the return of banking channels, and the revitalization of the metallurgical and machine-building sectors. In reality, this is not "economic stabilization," but rapid militarization.

Experience demonstrates that the Russian defense industry knows how to convert any budgetary easing into the modernization of armaments, the procurement of Western technologies through third countries, and the expansion of the production of missiles, drones, and armored vehicles. Sanctions do not destroy the Russian economy, but they effectively limit its military component. Refusal to use this tool will mean the return of the Russian Federation to large-scale rearmament in extremely short periods.

Any "Break" in Sanctions Will Give Russia the Opportunity to Restore Critically Important Import Chains

Russia continues to obtain technological components for armaments through bypass schemes, however, their price and quantity are substantially limited. Full sanctions make the import of microelectronics, composites, machine tools, optics, and software expensive, risky, and fragmented. If the sanctions regime is eased, Russia will get a chance to restore systematic supply chains through "friendly" countries without the need to adhere to hidden schemes. In such a case, the scale and quality of weapons production will grow many times over. This is precisely why, in a number of peace proposals, including the Dmitriev-Witkoff Plan, the Russian side insisted on the quick easing of sanctions shortly after the cessation of fire. For Moscow, this is not a diplomatic gesture, but a purely pragmatic mechanism for regaining access to critical resources.

The Quick Lifting of Sanctions Creates a Dangerous Illusion of Peace That Is Not Based on Real Changes in the Behavior of the Russian Federation

The Dmitriev-Witkoff Plan directly envisaged a scenario in which sanctions are lifted essentially immediately after the suspension of hostilities. In other words, Ukraine was required to adopt a capitulation model, in which Moscow does not change its strategic goals, but gains convenient conditions for restoring forces. The Kremlin insists that the key element of the "peace process" should be the return to the pre-war state of trade and financial operations, while issues of Ukraine's security are pushed to the back burner. This is a typical Russian approach: a formal cessation of fire is interpreted as the cessation of sanctions, and not as the beginning of real de-escalation.

All this means that the premature unfreezing of assets, the restoration of access to SWIFT, permissions for the supply of oil and gas to Europe, or the easing of export restrictions will become the foundation for new aggression. The modern Russian state has proven that it is incapable of using economic opportunities for stability – it uses them for war.

The Restoration of Russian Revenues from Energy Without Peace Guarantees Creates Risks Already for Europe

Any easing of sanctions returns to Russia inflows from the sale of oil and gas. In the absence of real political guarantees, this means the actual financing of the next stage of the war against Ukraine or potentially – against European countries. Moscow does not hide that it regards the Baltics, Poland, and Moldova as zones of long-term pressure, and the restored volumes of energy revenues can become a resource for destabilizing these regions through hybrid operations, military provocations, or missile blackmail.

Modern Europe has already come to the realization that dependence on Russian energy is a tool of political blackmail. The quick lifting of sanctions will return this tool to the hands of the Kremlin at the most dangerous moment – when the Russian Federation has not yet suffered a strategic defeat and is trying to restore its influence.

Russia Regards Sanctions Pauses as Strategic Victories That Stimulate New Aggression

The worst scenario is the premature lifting of sanctions without a full agreement that contains legally defined guarantees of Ukraine's security. In such a case, the Kremlin will perceive the West's decision as confirmation of the success of its attrition tactics. This will mean only one thing: Moscow will use every tool to seek a new moment for an attack, convinced that the West will again make concessions. The history of Russian policy – from Georgia in 2008 to Donbas in 2014 – proves that any "pause," not backed by force and institutional control, turns into preparation for a new offensive.

The Premature Easing of Pressure Is a Strategic Mistake That Carries Risks for the Entire Continent

In reality, sanctions today are part of the West's defense infrastructure. They are not a form of punishment – they are a deterrence tool. If Europe and the United States allow easing without real, legally interwoven peace, they will open the path to a new wave of war. Russia will not change its goals; it will only gain the opportunity to restore industry, accumulate reserves, and again attempt to revise borders by force.

Projects like the Dmitriev-Witkoff Plan demonstrate: Moscow uses diplomacy not for peace, but for creating conditions in which it can continue the war from more advantageous positions. This is precisely why the quick lifting of sanctions without a full agreement is not a path to peace, but a path to its disruption. Only a resilient, multi-level, and tied to real guarantees sanctions policy can ensure that the war does not return to Europe in a few years again – with a new scale and new intensity.

Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure