The Ukrainian Front: Why It Is Time for Europe to Act More Decisively

Ukrainians are grateful to prominent members of the European community for their bold stand in support of Ukraine and Ukrainians in an open letter published by Le Monde late last year. Their call to Western politicians is hard not to support. But there is a problem - the plan proposed by European intellectuals is unrealistic in the current circumstances and could lead to a worsening of the situation.

It is necessary to recognise the fact that there can be no successful negotiations with Moscow a priori. Throughout 2024, the Kremlin has been voicing on all available platforms the basic conditions not even for peace, but for the start of negotiations. These are Russia's occupation of the still free cities of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as the complete disarmament of the Ukrainian army. As we can see, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not want to establish a just peace, nor does he want to start negotiations, for which he is setting unrealistic conditions.

Moreover, the indecisive stance of Western politicians is making Putin more and more confident. Russia believes that its economic problems, which are trumpeted by the Western media, are greatly exaggerated. On the contrary, the problems of the EU's economy are diminishing. At the same time, Moscow is betting on radical (far-right or far-left) parties coming to power in Europe, which, according to the ruling elite of the Russian Federation, should provoke civil confrontation in some EU countries.

In addition, Moscow is not so much interested in occupying part or all of Ukraine as in restoring the Warsaw Pact of the Soviet era. A springboard for its resurrection is already being created by the prime ministers of Hungary, Viktor Orban, and Slovakia, Robert Fico. The fall of Ukraine will throw Europe into a stupor and open the way for Putin to further expand westward and replace current leaders with populists like Marine Le Pen and her ilk. This happened 85 years ago. Let us recall the pro-fascist government of France under Philippe Pétain and Pierre Laval.

As for the deployment of allied troops on the territory of Ukraine, for example, to protect the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, the EU does not currently have combat-ready army units to implement this plan. Moreover, European armies lack combat experience in modern drone warfare. It should be acknowledged that at the moment, the EU armies are not much different from North Korea's units in the Kursk region of Russia.

But this is not the biggest problem. The EU does not have sufficient defence production to meet the needs of modern warfare. Czech President Petr Pavel's initiative to purchase 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine from around the world is another proof of this. The reality is that the ‘economically powerful’ EU cannot produce as many shells in a year as the ‘sanctioned and underdeveloped’ North Korea can easily supply to Russia.

At the same time, we should not forget that there is no better rear for Ukraine than the EU territory. In the current situation, any military action in the EU does not require echeloned air defence protection from air strikes. Unlike in Ukraine, where any defence enterprise faces unrealistic risks of missile attack.

In addition, EU citizens are not ready to go to war. In Poland, for example, according to an IBRiS poll conducted in early 2024, only 16% of people are ready to take up arms to defend their country. This is not to mention participation in hostilities in Ukraine. In addition, the deployment of a French contingent on Ukraine's border with Belarus, for example, would simultaneously turn it into a target of choice for Moscow.

After all, attacks on the French on the territory of Ukraine would not be equivalent to an attack on a NATO country, as we recall Russia's military operation in the African Sahel region, where Russian proxies drove the French contingent out. In addition, the loss of the French army in the war in Ukraine will be a powerful psychological blow to the divided society of the Fifth Republic and will jeopardise the existence of democratic governments operating in the EU.

Therefore, in addition to the voiced position of European civic leaders, a number of urgent measures need to be taken.

First of all, it is necessary to simply forget about any possibility of freezing the war as unattainable and harmful. The very possibility of Europe returning to a ‘pre-war’ and ‘business as usual’ state is like a drug that has a detrimental effect on the minds of European elites, driving them into a mode of inaction and non-resistance to evil.

Secondly, the frozen Russian assets should be used to quickly rebuild the EU's military industry. This will create a rear for Ukraine that is invulnerable to Putin's missiles. It will also support the limping economies of the EU countries. Ukraine, on the other hand, will receive an uninterrupted supply of modern weapons and timely repair of military equipment. It is better to postpone the issue of rebuilding Ukraine until after the victory over fascist Russia.

Thirdly, an EU fund should be created to support European companies' investments in oil and gas development and production around the world. Total may well want to become one of its beneficiaries. The mere public intention to create such a fund will reduce global oil prices. And this will immediately have an economic effect for energy-dependent countries such as Germany or Poland.

Finally, the EU has a large and still unused resource to strengthen its own NATO military contingents and multiply the number of personnel in the face of the reluctance of EU citizens to serve in the army. The number of Ukrainians subject to mobilisation and protected by European programmes is in the hundreds of thousands.

European countries should cancel the protection programmes for Ukrainians subject to mobilisation and give them a choice: either sign a contract to serve at NATO military bases on the eastern borders (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) or be extradited to Ukraine and serve in the Ukrainian armed forces. Thus, full-fledged military contingents will be formed on the eastern flank of the Alliance. They will be trained by Ukraine, supplied by the EU, and commanded by NATO. The implementation of this project will also secure Ukraine's northern borders.

This is a minimum programme. It is easy to implement and will be supported by European voters.