Is the World on the Brink of World War III?

June 21, 2025, was a turning point in modern geopolitics: the United States conducted a large-scale military operation codenamed “Midnight Hammer” aimed at destroying Iran's key nuclear facilities. What are the consequences of this decision for global politics, the economy, and Ukraine?

Operation Midnight Hammer: The Beginning of War?

On the evening of June 21, 2025, Washington time (early morning of June 22, European time), the US launched a series of powerful air and missile strikes on three key facilities of Iran's nuclear program — in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This move, made in support of Israel, not only exacerbated the already tense situation in the Middle East, but also raised questions about whether the world was on the brink of World War III. The operation, dubbed “Midnight Hammer,” was the largest combat mission involving B-2 bombers in US history. According to the Pentagon, more than 125 aircraft were used, including seven B-2 stealth bombers, which dropped 14 GBU-57 super-powerful bombs capable of penetrating fortified underground bunkers, as well as dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

US President Donald Trump said in his address that the operation destroyed Iran's nuclear program, which, according to him, posed a threat due to the possible production of nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the decision “historic,” stressing that it was aimed at preventing a nuclear threat from “the number one state sponsor of terrorism.” Iran also acknowledged the attacks but claimed that it had evacuated enriched uranium from these facilities in advance, reducing radiation risks, although the damage to the facilities was significant.

This military action was the culmination of an operation against Iran launched by Israel on June 13, 2025, when its air force attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and eliminated key military and nuclear scientists. The involvement of the United States took the conflict to a new level, effectively marking its entry into the war on the side of Israel.

The Final End of the “Rule of Law”: a New Era of “Might Makes Right”

Operation Midnight Hammer finally buried the illusion of international law as the basis for global relations. After the world failed to respond adequately to Russia's occupation of part of Georgia in 2008 and its annexation of Crimea in 2014, international law lost its effectiveness. The US strikes on Iran, which Tehran called a “brutal violation” of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), only confirmed the transition to a policy of “might makes right,” where military power and strategic interests dominate diplomacy.

This move by the US also undermines its image as a peacemaker, which it has been trying to restore after its failed wars in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Although Trump stressed that the operation was not directed against the Iranian people or military, but only against the nuclear program, Iran has promised to defend itself “by all means,” including missile strikes against Israel and possibly US bases in the region. This creates the risk of a wider escalation, drawing other players such as China, Russia, or Iranian-backed proxy groups into the conflict.

Economic Consequences: Rising Prices and Instability

The economic consequences of Operation Midnight Hammer are already being felt. Oil prices rose 7% in the day after the strikes due to fears of disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, where Iran plays an important role, accounting for 4% of global oil exports. According to Bloomberg, China, which imports a significant portion of Iranian oil, is already looking for alternative suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which could temporarily drive up energy prices. Food markets have also reacted with rising prices for grain and other commodities, as instability in the region threatens logistics chains, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes.

These economic shocks are exacerbating the global instability that has persisted since the 2007 financial crisis. Markets, although accustomed to volatility, are reacting nervously, which could worsen the situation for countries dependent on energy and food imports, including Ukraine.

The Escalation Creates an Ambivalent Situation for Ukraine

For Ukraine, US entry into war with Iran has both risks and potential benefits. On the one hand, the concentration of American resources in the Middle East could reduce the amount of military and financial aid to Ukraine, which since 2022 has depended on US support in its war against Russia. Escalation in Iran could redirect these resources to support Israel and strengthen the US presence in the region.

On the other hand, the conflict has several positive aspects for Ukraine. First, Israeli strikes have likely destroyed some of Iran's factories producing Shahed-type drones, which Russia is actively using against Ukraine. This could weaken Russian terror against Ukrainian cities. Second, increased US control over sea lanes in the Persian Gulf complicates logistics for Russia, which depends on Iranian arms supplies. Third, Russia faces a difficult choice: either fulfill its alliance obligations to Iran by entering into war with the US and Israel, or refrain from participating, which would undermine its reputation as a reliable partner in the eyes of China, North Korea, and other allies.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry supported the US strikes, saying that the destruction of Iran's nuclear program promotes global security and weakens Russia's ally.

Is the World on the Brink of World War III?

The question of whether Operation Midnight Hammer is the beginning of World War III remains open. The multipolarity of the world that emerged after the collapse of the USSR makes global conflict less likely in the classical sense, but fragmented local wars, such as those in Iran or Ukraine, could escalate into a broader conflict. The reaction of Iran, which has already launched missile strikes against Israel, and the potential involvement of proxy groups such as Hezbollah or the Houthis increase the risk of other states becoming involved. Russia, despite its cautious support for Iran, is avoiding direct statements, fearing confrontation with the US. China, which is dependent on Iranian oil, is also limiting itself to diplomatic statements, but may increase economic pressure through trade agreements.

The economic interdependence of countries prevents the conflict from escalating into a global one. For example, Taiwan, which produces 70% of the world's microprocessors, remains untouched due to its critical role in the global economy, while Iran, whose economy is based on energy resources, is more vulnerable. However, if the conflict spreads to the Persian Gulf, where key oil routes are concentrated, economic turmoil could trigger a broader crisis.

The almost simultaneous statements by the US, Israel, and Iran on June 23-24 about the cessation of hostilities and “victory in the war/achievement of all operational objectives” put a full stop, but do not finalize the situation. Whether this conflict will be the beginning of World War III depends on the further actions of Israel, Iran, Russia, China, and other players. It is quite difficult to predict how this temporary pause will be used and for what purpose. At the moment, the world is teetering on the brink, where economic interdependence and military restraint are the last safeguards against global catastrophe.

Anton Kuchukhidze, political scientist and foreign policy analyst, expert at the “United Ukraine” Think Tank