Ukraine's EU Membership: A Challenging Task

The EU commenced negotiations with Ukraine regarding its accession to the bloc on 25 June. Today, 27 June, marks the beginning of a two-day EU leaders' summit to discuss the Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029, the upcoming institutional cycle, and issues related to Ukraine, the Middle East, security and defence, as well as competitiveness. It appears that the key topics will be Russia's aggression in Ukraine and enhancing competitiveness in the face of challenges from China's excess industrial capacity. Both the EU and Ukraine are facing significant challenges.

The path to EU-Ukraine negotiations was opened in December last year by a European Council decision. On 21 June 2024, the Council of Europe approved the Framework Programme for negotiations with Ukraine. As Belgium holds the rotating presidency of the EU until 30 June, the Alliance delegation is led by Hadja Lahbib, Belgium's Minister of Foreign Affairs. The negotiations also include Oliver Varhelyi, the Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement (Hungary), who will oversee this process going forward. Ukraine's delegation is headed by Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, who received the mandate for further negotiations from President Volodymyr Zelensky. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal addressed the conference online from Kyiv.

The process is unlikely to be easy for Ukraine, even considering the country’s special status due to the Russian invasion. Ukraine has rightly earned positive sentiment, which should create a favourable atmosphere for the proceedings. However, voices are already demanding that requirements for the rule of law, human rights, and investment protection be met without concessions.

Besides these understandable and objective factors, other considerations come into play. For example, Oliver Varhelyi’s position is seen as potentially biased, given Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s frequent sympathies towards Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s general obstruction of EU support for Ukraine.

So, EU officials estimate Ukraine’s accession process will take at least six years, aiming for completion by 2030. For reference, Croatia’s recent accession to the EU took about ten years, concluding in 2013.

"The future of Ukraine and its citizens is in the European Union"

Hadja Lahbib, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Belgium

" This is a historic day for Ukraine and the EU. The road to reach this point has been challenging and Ukraine’s determination to undertake the necessary reforms has been truly impressive. The accession negotiations we open today will be rigorous and demanding. With determination and commitment, we are confident that Ukraine can bring them to a successful conclusion. The future of Ukraine and its citizens lies within the European Union."

Photo: “In dark times, Ukrainians and Moldovans have made a clear choice: to reform despite the challenges, to one day become members of the European Union,” said Hadja Lahbib, Belgian Minister of Foreign Affairs. Source: X (formerly Twitter) Hadja Lahbib.

Obstacles on the Road

From 1 July, Hungary will assume the presidency of the EU. Its leader, Viktor Orban, is a Eurosceptic who regularly obstructs EU support for Ukraine. Hungary is one of the few European countries resisting the implementation of sanctions against Russia, particularly concerning the import of Russian gas via pipelines. Budapest has repeatedly opposed providing aid to Ukraine, including military assistance.

Now, a Hungarian representative is set to oversee Ukraine’s negotiation track towards EU membership. "Our role is to make sure that Ukraine will be well prepared, including on important issues such as the rule of law, fundamental rights, socio-economic policies, when it will join the EU. We will now launch the bilateral screening of the EU acquis," announced Oliver Varhelyi on 25 June.

Overall, his speech appeared balanced and amicable, except for the fact that he used the opportunity to exert additional pressure on Kyiv regarding language issues and the rights of national minorities. Both of these issues are extremely sensitive for Ukraine, as the Kremlin manipulates them to justify its aggression against the country.

“...engaging bilaterally with Member States on issues of special concern, such as the rights of persons belonging to national minorities, has facilitated largely the process.Therefore, we encourage Ukraine to maintain this approach also for the future,” declared Varhelyi in Brussels on 25 June, likely referring to the repeated demands of Hungarian leaders for special conditions for the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia, the westernmost region of Ukraine.

A year ago, in June 2023, in an updated report for EU member states, Oliver Varhelyi noted that Kyiv had completed two out of seven steps required to begin accession: the reform of two judicial bodies and the adoption of media legislation in line with EU standards. The remaining tasks were the reform of the Constitutional Court, measures to combat corruption, anti-money laundering measures, limiting the influence of oligarchs, and addressing the treatment of national minorities. As we can see, as of June, he still highlights the rights of national minorities.

Photo: “Our role is to ensure that Ukraine is well-prepared,” announced EU Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi, representing the EU in the negotiations on 25 June. Source: X (formerly Twitter) Oliver Varhelyi.

EU Intentions and Readiness

What’s next? Ahead lies a fairly long journey during which Ukraine must align its legislation with many EU standards, ranging from climate regulations to media and judicial systems. This process is expected to take approximately six years, aiming for completion by 2024. Croatia’s path to the EU serves as a relevant example for Ukraine, despite the nearly tenfold difference in population and significant economic structure disparities.

Croatia began its EU journey shortly after the end of the major war in the Western Balkans, while Ukraine is embarking on it during an ongoing war. Croatia’s delay in starting the Euro-integration process was due to the authoritarian regime of Franjo Tudjman. The Euro-integration process of Croatia only began after his death.

For the EU, Croatia's Euro-integration was generally desirable but not critically important. The situation with Ukraine is entirely different. Ukraine serves as the EU's eastern flank, currently confronting the Russian threat, which Brussels and other European capitals have begun to perceive as existential.

This is why Ukraine's closest neighbours, such as Poland and the Baltic States, generally support a swift path for Kyiv. Meanwhile, older member states, including France, Germany, and the Netherlands, were somewhat more reserved about this idea a year ago. This hesitation is partly because Ukraine's integration will require substantial expenditures from the EU's general budget, with these three states being the most significant contributors.

However, the progress Ukraine has made over the past year and the recognition of its role in countering the Russian threat have significantly changed the attitudes of the EU heavyweights towards Kyiv. During the negotiations on 25 June, the EU confirmed its readiness to "continue supporting Ukraine and its people in their fight against Russia’s ongoing war for as long as necessary and as intensely as required."

It is worth adding that on 27 June, after the publication of this article, President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to participate in the EU summit in Brussels, where he is anticipated to sign an agreement on the EU’s security commitments to Ukraine. According to European officials, the security guarantees agreement has already been approved by member states and is set to be signed on 27 June. Previously, Ukraine signed 17 bilateral security agreements with other countries (including the USA, Japan, Canada, and the UK), among them 11 EU members, including France, Germany, and the Netherlands.

The draft agreement reported by AFP states that the EU will continue funding arms supplies to Ukraine, continue training its troops, and intensify efforts to strengthen the country’s defence industry. However, this agreement, like others, is not binding.

It should also be noted that many integration steps have already been effectively implemented under the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, which came into effect in 2017 after provisional application from 2014. This agreement established a broad and deep free trade area.

Next, evaluation procedures for Ukraine's readiness in specific areas are set to begin, along with negotiations on the terms of Euro-integration. It seems that reaching an agreement on the conditions will be the most laborious part for Ukraine. Clearly, Kyiv will insist on substantial transitional periods after joining the EU concerning economic, tax, technical, and other conditions, as these periods are objectively needed due to the war and the dire financial situation.