USDA Lowers Its Forecast for Wheat, but Is Surprised with Soybean Estimates in Ukraine

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a July report revised its forecasts for yields and exports of major crops, including wheat, corn and soybeans, for Ukraine and the world in the 2025/26 marketing year. 

The Gaze reports on this with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, citing forecast of the USDA. 

According to the document of the US department, wheat exports from Ukraine were reduced by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons, while ending stocks were increased by 0.1 million tons to 1.59 million tons. 

“The biggest surprise was Ukraine, where production sharply increased by 1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. This is not only higher than the previous forecast, but also exceeds the record of last season (7 million tons)," the report says. 

The July report indicates that global wheat supply will decrease by 0.4 million tons to 1 billion 072.1 million tons. This is due to a decline in beginning stocks in many countries amid lower production in Canada, Ukraine and Iran, which is only partially offset by increased production in Kazakhstan, the EU, Pakistan and Russia. 

According to the report, in the 2025/26 marketing year, the global wheat trade will decrease by 1.3 million tonnes to 213.1 million tonnes. The main reason is the decline in exports from the EU and Ukraine, which is only partially offset by the increase in supplies from Russia and the US.  

The Gaze previously reported that the FAO has unveiled a new two-year plan worth $150 million to support rural communities in Ukraine in rebuilding agriculture in the wake of the war.