What Will Be Ukraine's Path to the EU?

When Ukraine was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, it raised the hopes of many Ukrainians that "soon, not today or tomorrow," the country would quickly and unconditionally become a member of the European community. However, both the acquisition of candidate status and subsequent membership in the European Union are the result of long and painstaking work by diplomats, politicians, and experts. Their activities are mostly invisible to the general public, but they bring Ukraine closer to the EU. It is not possible to become a member of the EU "today or tomorrow" because there are certain procedures and steps that all candidate countries must take.

Thus, Ukraine is rightly expecting the opening of the EU membership negotiations. 

First, Ukraine is a shield of Europe. Second, Ukraine fulfills most of its obligations. Third, there is finally a political consensus in Europe on the EU enlargement to include Ukraine. Ukraine has become NATO's eastern flank and a defender of European values across the continent. It was Ukraine that deterred the Russian invasion, which could have been launched against Poland, the Baltic States, and Central and Eastern Europe. 

As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated at a briefing in Brussels, Ukraine has implemented more than 90% of the recommendations put forward by the EC along with the granting of candidate status to Ukraine. The day before her announcement, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promised that Ukraine would become a member of the European Union, pointed to the progress made in meeting the EU's accession requirements, and acknowledged that more work was needed to "adapt to EU standards."

What Are the Requirements for a Candidate Country to Fulfill?

After gaining candidate status, Ukraine received recommendations from the European Commission on the necessary steps towards full EU membership and the fulfillment of several legal, political, and economic requirements that are mandatory for candidates. 

Among the political and legal recommendations, the following are worth mentioning.

1. Adoption and implementation of legislation on the procedure for selecting judges of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, including a preliminary selection process based on the assessment of their integrity and professional skills, in line with the recommendations of the Venice Commission.
2. Completion of the integrity check of candidates for the positions of members of the High Council of Justice by the Ethics Council and selection of a candidate to form the High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine.
3. Further strengthening the fight against corruption, in particular at the highest levels, through proactive and effective investigations, as well as a strong record of prosecutions and convictions; finalizing the appointment of the new head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office by approving the selected winner of the competition, and initiating and completing the selection and appointment process for the new Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
4. Ensure compliance of anti-money laundering legislation with the standards of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF); adopt a strategic plan for reforming the entire law enforcement sector as part of Ukraine's security environment.
5. Implementation of an anti-oligarchic law to limit the excessive influence of oligarchs on economic, political and public life (this should be done in a legally sound manner, taking into account the forthcoming opinion of the Venice Commission on the relevant legislation).
6. Intensify the fight against the influence on public opinion by various unscrupulous stakeholders by adopting a law on media that harmonizes Ukrainian legislation with the EU Directive on audiovisual media services and empowers an independent media regulator.
7. Completion of the reform of the legal framework for national minorities and adoption of effective mechanisms for its implementation (in line with the recommendations of the Venice Commission).

As for the economic criteria, to become a member, Ukraine must: 

• guarantee the sustainable and unimpeded functioning of market economy mechanisms;

• demonstrate the ability to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU;

• demonstrate the full implementation of all obligations set forth in the Association Agreement with the EU and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and their implementation.

Let me remind you that in general, the possibility of a new member joining the EU is clearly defined in Article 49 of the EU Treaty and the provisions of this Article provide for only two criteria for membership in the Union.

1. Geographical - the state applying for membership must be European.

2. Values (or political) - it must respect and adhere to the values on which the EU is based (to promote throughout the Community a harmonious, balanced and stable development of economic activity, high levels of employment and social protection, equality of women and men, stable and inflation-free growth, high levels of competitiveness and convergence of economic performance, high levels of environmental protection and improvement, higher standards and quality of life, economic and social cohesion and solidarity of the Member States)

However, the same Article 49 gives the European Council the right to extend or add new conditions of membership. In this way, in particular, the so-called Copenhagen Membership Criteria were developed, and adopted by the European Council in Copenhagen in June 1993 for the candidate states from Central and Eastern Europe. They defined the need for applicants to meet the following requirements and guarantee their fulfillment:

• Stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities (political criterion);

• a market economy and the ability to withstand competitive pressures and market forces within the EU (economic criterion);

• ability to assume the obligations of membership, including commitment to the goals of political, economic, and monetary union (legal criterion).

As for the accession process itself, it takes place in four main stages:

1. application - submission of an application for accession;
2. evaluation - consideration of the application and making a positive decision;
3. negotiation - negotiations with the candidate state;
4. ratification - signing of the accession agreement and its entry into force.

Ukraine is currently at the beginning of the third stage. Therefore, before joining the EU, we have to complete the negotiation process and move on to the ratification process. It is impossible to skip or jump over a stage. We have to be patient and balanced.