Europe May Need a Decade to Replace U.S. Troop Presence

A potential reduction in the U.S. military presence in Europe is sending shockwaves through NATO member states, with governments scrambling to assess the consequence, The Gaze reports, citing Politico.

During his first European tour in February 2025, U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth warned that American troops would not be in Europe “forever.” Though U.S. and European officials have consistently downplayed the possibility of a major troop drawdown, behind closed doors many believe the countdown has already begun.

Currently, estimates place between 70,000 and 90,000 American troops across the continent, with more than 38,000 in Germany alone. The concern now is not just about numbers, but about deterrence, logistics, and morale.

“It’s my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,” said Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe. “We collectively require a heavy ground presence, specifically to overcome that singular Russian advantage of being able to put their forces at our border.”

The prospect of a diminished U.S. footprint has split European capitals. Germany and Finland have publicly called on Washington to clarify its future plans. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius demanded “a proper roadmap” to prepare for any changes, and Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen supported that call.

A recent report from Germany’s Economic Institute warned it could take a decade or more to replicate critical U.S. capabilities. According to Ben Harris of the Council on Foreign Relations, Poland and the Baltic states would be the “first affected” by a troop drawdown.

The logistical challenges are immense. U.S. deployments include tanks, helicopters, missile defense systems, and nuclear capabilities. Long-term rotational forces, such as those in NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program, could be the first to go—especially those deployed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Though some troops fall under agreements that require Congressional approval for withdrawal, others, like rotational forces, could be reduced at the president’s discretion.

As The Gaze reported, European countries have called on the United States to coordinate with them any plans to reduce the US military presence on the continent in order not to destabilise NATO defences.

Previously, it was reported that the Pentagon is reportedly considering a proposal to withdraw 10,000 troops from Europe.