Heat-Related Deaths in Europe Could Triple by the End of the Century
A study published in the journal Lancet Public Health has found that the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with the numbers rising disproportionately in southern European countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain.
The Guardian writes about this.
In Europe, cold kills more people than heat, and some argue that climate change will benefit society by reducing the number of deaths. But the study found that the number of deaths will be slow to respond to warming and may even increase as people age and become more vulnerable to dangerous temperatures.
The researchers concluded that if global warming reaches a catastrophic 3 or 4C, the increase in heat-related deaths will far exceed the drop in cold-related deaths.
‘Due to a warming climate and an ageing population, many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur, while cold-related deaths are only expected to decrease slightly,’ said David Garcia-Leon of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, a co-author of the study.
Warm weather deaths could kill 129,000 people a year if temperatures rise 3C above pre-industrial levels. Today, the number of heat-related deaths in Europe is 44,000. But the annual number of deaths from cold and heat in Europe could rise from 407,000 today to 450,000 in 2100, even if world leaders meet their 1.5C global warming target.
The researchers modelled data from 854 cities to estimate mortality from hot and cold temperatures across the continent. They found that the heatwave will kill more people in all parts of Europe, but that the greatest burden will fall on southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, as well as parts of France.
They predicted that the number of deaths from uncomfortable temperatures would rise by 13.5% if the planet warms to 3C - a level of climate deterioration slightly higher than expected - resulting in 55,000 additional deaths. The majority of those who die will be over 85 years old.
The study comes amid a series of heat waves that have wreaked havoc across the continent.