ISW: Middle East Escalation Could Benefit Russia’s War Effort in Ukraine

Russia is attempting to leverage escalating tensions in the Middle East to advance its strategic and economic interests, particularly in relation to its ongoing war against Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as The Gaze reports.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called Israel’s actions “categorically unacceptable” and warning of consequences for international efforts aimed at ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities. 

While publicly positioning itself as a neutral mediator, Russian officials were quick to assign blame to the West. Kremlin representatives, including First Deputy Chair of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev, used the moment to further criticize Western “global injustice” and implied that Russia’s closer military ties with Iran could deepen if tensions rise.

The ISW notes that rising oil prices in the wake of the Israeli-Iranian confrontation may directly aid Russia’s ability to sustain its war against Ukraine. Brent crude surged by over 5% to $74.47 per barrel following the airstrikes. 

Given that oil and gas revenues made up roughly 30% of Russia’s federal income in 2024, the Kremlin stands to benefit significantly if prices remain high.

ISW previously assessed that Russia’s economic capacity to maintain a prolonged war is under growing pressure. However, sudden spikes in energy revenue could offer the Kremlin a financial buffer to support military expenditures, including large-scale rearmament initiatives.

As The Gaze previously reported, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has voiced deep concern over the escalating conflict in the Middle East after Israeli forces launched overnight airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military facilities.