ISW: Russia Uses Istanbul Talks to Demand Ukraine’s Capitulation
Russia continues to show no interest in compromise during the Istanbul talks, instead demanding Ukraine’s de facto capitulation while rejecting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s invitation for direct negotiations, The Gaze reports referencing the report by the Institute of Study of War (ISW).
ISW noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused to engage in high-level talks and instead dispatched a delegation of junior officials, led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, replicating the 2022 negotiation team that had previously demanded Ukraine’s surrender.
According to ISW, Medinsky openly described the May 2025 talks as a continuation of the failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations, during which Russia sought to impose extreme demands on Ukraine.
These demands included Ukraine abandoning its NATO aspirations, altering its constitution to enshrine neutrality, restricting its military forces, and allowing Russia and other states to act as guarantors capable of vetoing Ukraine’s international treaties.
Despite Russia’s deteriorated military position compared to 2022, ISW said Moscow is clinging to the same demands, ignoring the fact that Ukrainian forces have since liberated significant territories and halted Russia’s advances.
Medinsky also repeated Putin’s insistence that any peace agreement must include regime change in Ukraine and restrictions on NATO, presenting these demands as addressing the “root causes” of the war.
ISW also reported that Kremlin directives to Russian state media instruct them to frame the talks as continuing under unfavorable conditions for Ukraine, despite the reality on the battlefield, while preparing the Russian population for a prolonged war.
The instructions emphasize portraying any Western response, including new sanctions, as ineffective and not impacting Russia’s development.
ISW concluded that Russia’s insistence on its 2022 demands and the composition of its delegation highlight the Kremlin’s unwillingness to negotiate in good faith and its readiness to prolong the war in pursuit of Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
As The Gaze reported, Ukraine will send a delegation headed by its Defence Minister Rustem Umerov to Istanbul, Turkey, for peace talks with Russia on 15 May.
On 14 May, Russian leader Vladimir Putin approved the list of Russian representatives to participate in talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on 15 May, which he did not join.
Read more on The Gaze: Who Are Russia and Ukraine Sending to Istanbul Talks?