If not NATO, What will be Effective Security Guarantees for Ukraine, and Who Can Provide Them?

Ukraine’s security cannot rely on abstract promises anymore. In the end, how the desired security guarantees should look like?

The Budapest Memorandum, which ensured Ukraine’s giving up its nuclear capabilities in exchange for security guarantees/assurances, long regarded as the basis of Ukraine’s security architecture, proved to be toothless when the very existence of the state was at stake. 

As a result, Ukraine’s focus has shifted away from symbolic guarantees toward real deterrence mechanisms that can be touched, measured, and counted.

We are talking about forms of security support that will make any future aggression practically impossible. A country at war with one of the world’s largest arsenals of weapons cannot afford to rely on diplomacy or abstract commitments alone.

Allied Troops or Peacekeepers: What Kind of Presence Works?

One such tool could be the deployment of a foreign military contingent on the territory of Ukraine.Historical examples – from U.S. forces in South Korea to NATO battalions in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – show that the presence of allied armies is not just a deterrent, but a clear signal to a potential aggressor: an attack on this territory automatically means war with the state whose contingent is on the ground.

For Ukraine, this could take the form of joint training missions, rapid response forces, joint command centers, or missile defense systems. The presence of partner troops creates not only a military advantage, but also a political burden of responsibility. The key candidates for such cooperation are the United Kingdom, Poland, France, and the Scandinavian states, which have already shown their willingness to participate in long-term security projects.

However, this model requires both military and political willingness of the partners to take on some of the risks. It can be formalized through intergovernmental agreements or by including such provisions in the structure of the Ukraine Compact. Crucially, the deployment of foreign forces must be permanent and integrated into a strategic vision of common security for decades to come.

Def-tech development is the key to security

Another no less important component of genuine security guarantees is the development of Ukraine’s defense industry. As the experiences of Israel, South Korea, and Turkey show, no ally, no matter how close, can ensure long-term security without a robust domestic arms production.

The creation of joint ventures with Western companies (BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Baykar), technology transfer, and localization of production should not be gestures of goodwill from partners, but a systemic policy, stimulated by the Ukrainian government. The legislative framework, logistics simplification, and facility security are essential tasks that must be addressed today.

The Ukrainian defense industry should become one of the centers of the European military industry. Foreign investment in this sector is not just about business, it is primarily a long-term bet on Ukraine's ability to defend itself. If foreign capital comes to the production of ammunition, air defense systems, electronics, or drones, it means trust in Ukraine’s future. For its part, Ukraine must guarantee a transparent regulatory policy, access to infrastructure, risk insurance, and technical training.

A High-Tech Army: The Third Pillar of Deterrence

The third element of effective guarantees is the technical parameters of the army that will deter future threats. We are talking about creating a new generation of armed forces. For Ukraine, the army of the future is not a million soldiers with small arms, but dozens of compact, high-tech corps capable of acting autonomously, in conditions of multi-level coordination, integrated intelligence and air superiority.

The focus is on long-range artillery, an extensive air defense system, attack drones, kamikaze combat drones, reconnaissance platforms, anti-drone systems, cyber defense, and artificial intelligence. Ukrainian forces must be digitized to a level that enables them to destroy an enemy column before it even crosses the state border. Such capabilities can only be achieved through a long-term program that includes military assistance, personnel training, rearmament, and warfare doctrine.

For Ukraine, the key priorities are to ensure interoperability with NATO forces, transition to logistics and command and control standards, and the development of strategic deterrence capabilities from intelligence gathering to advanced weaponry. Particular attention should be paid to the development of mobile strike groups that are flexible in their use, with their own supply, logistics, and air cover systems. Such a force does more than hold the front line, it sets the tempo, seizes the initiative on the battlefield, and acts asymmetrically.

This is exactly what a system of real, not nominal, security guarantees for Ukraine should look like – through a symbiosis of allied presence, technological development of the defense sector, and qualitative transformation of the Armed Forces. These guarantees are not granted in exchange for a nuclear arsenal. It is built, implemented, and defended together with those who are truly ready to invest in a secure Europe of the 21st century. Restoring and building such a system is not only a response to the challenge of war, but also a strategic vision of Ukraine’s role as a key shield and a reliable partner for the civilized world.

Security is not a matter of mercy. It is a function of strength, competence and trust. And Ukraine already has all the prerequisites to become a regional leader in this new generation security architecture.

Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure