Kosovo and Serbia: Quelling Before Balkan Flames Ignite

If anyone believes that three months after the resounding events of May 2023 regarding Kosovo, the situation in the region has calmed down, they would be gravely mistaken. Unfortunately, as we approach autumn, the Balkan knot has once again started to smoulder. Kosovo's leaders are deeply concerned about the instability and are striving to achieve some semblance of stability ahead of a series of elections in the EU and the US. This is crucial because, without it, NATO and the EU's attention may turn away from the Western Balkans, leaving the region bereft of the stability it so desperately needs.

"Those who attacked NATO troops on May 29 are known to law enforcement agencies," stated Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu to journalists at NATO headquarters in Brussels after talks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. According to Osmani, video footage shows that some "are policemen who came all the way from Serbia."

"They have not been suspended from work," Osmani added. "They face no consequences."

Photo: President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on September 7, 2023. "We stand undeterred in our commitment to long-lasting peace and security in the region," she said. Source: Twitter Vjosa Osmani

There's a Plan, but No Progress

Recall that in late May, violent clashes erupted in northern Kosovo after Serbs living in the region boycotted local elections. When newly elected ethnic Albanian mayors attempted to enter their offices, some Serbs tried to prevent them. Kosovo police used tear gas to disperse the crowd when violence erupted.

Kosovo's police are responsible for investigating the incidents, but local Serbs typically avoid contact with the authorities. Serbian authorities are also conducting their investigation.

According to Stoltenberg, 93 peacekeepers were injured, some seriously. He agreed that those responsible should be held accountable but, unlike Osmani, refrained from specifying who should be held responsible for the attacks.

A week before the Kosovo president's statement, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, insisted in another interview that Serbia and Kosovo must reach an agreement to normalise relations before attention in the United States and European Union becomes primarily focused on elections in those countries. Specifically, Kurti argued that "there is a sense of urgency in the urgent implementation of an agreement and the normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, focused on mutual de facto recognition, no later than the spring of next year."

In other words, there is an understanding of the urgent need to resolve the situation in the most volatile region of Europe, but there is a lack of political will to implement the European Union's plan aimed at resolving the disputes that have threatened Balkan stability. This plan was optimistically endorsed by the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, who acted as a mediator in the final round of negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia in the city of Ohrid, North Macedonia, in March 2023.

However, shortly after the presentation of the EU's promising plan, tensions flared up in the northern regions of Kosovo in May, and the comprehensive normalization process ground to a halt.

Photo: Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti during a meeting with the future commander of KFOR NATO, Major General Ozkan Ulutash, on September 11, 2023. Source: Twitter Albin Kurti

Tito's Legacy - a Bitter Taste in the Balkans

The process of disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is nearing its logical conclusion, but due to the peculiarities of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, it's facing notable difficulties. The stakes are quite high, Western efforts remain visible, and the scale of the Russian-Ukrainian war constantly reminds Balkan politicians to keep themselves in the spotlight so that major powers don't forget about the region.

Kosovo, Europe's youngest state, declared its independence in February 2008. While 90% of its population consists of ethnic Albanians, the Serbian minority not only enjoys Belgrade's support but also seeks to demonstrate its resistance. The reason is remarkably simple: Kosovo Field, the site of an epic medieval battle between Serbs and Ottoman Turks, which continues to have historical reflections in modern life.

Clearly, Serbia cannot regain control over Kosovo or recognise its independence, as historical memory weighs heavily in the Balkans. Russia, along with China, effectively leverages this situation, working towards destabilising the "soft underbelly of Europe," as the Balkans have been called since the 19th century. Therefore, the withdrawal of recognition of Kosovo's independence by ten countries is more a result of Moscow and Beijing's efforts than Belgrade's. Nevertheless, in the 15 years since Kosovo declared independence, it has been recognised by over 100 countries, including the United States, Germany, and France. Several European Union countries, such as Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Cyprus, have no plans to recognise Kosovo's independence.

Ukraine, which also hasn't recognised Kosovo's independence, didn't prevent Kosovo from joining the declaration regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. This declaration was signed by G-7 countries at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023. Pristina's calculation was quite clear: the accession took place just before the meeting of the Presidents of Ukraine and Serbia in Athens. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Aleksandar Vucic emphasised mutual respect for the territorial integrity of both countries. As is known, Vucic continues to balance between pro-European and nationalist forces in Serbia, where elections are scheduled for next spring. His meetings with Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti are under the patronage of the EU but have not yet allowed for a breakthrough.

Exit – Where Entry Lies

In April 2023, local elections were held in Kosovo, which were boycotted by the local Serbs. Their relatively small numbers, compared to the majority Albanian population, shouldn't be underestimated. When tensions rise, official Belgrade also flexes its muscles, and Serbia, as we know, is the most powerful state in the Western Balkans. At the same time, Serbia continues to balance positive relations with Russia while clearly declaring and, to a large extent, implementing its aspiration to join the EU (it has been a candidate since March 2012). Kosovo, by the way, together with Georgia, holds the status of a potential candidate.

Understanding the importance of normalizing the situation in the Balkans, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron proposed a plan for the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, which involves actions by Belgrade that would allow Pristina to gradually integrate into international institutions. Of course, Serbia wants concessions from Kosovo regarding the functioning of four Serbian municipalities united in an Association. Albin Kurti has already suggested the possibility of holding new elections in northern Kosovo, in which Serbs would participate. However, at the beginning of September, Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani compared Serbia's actions in the Balkans to Russia's policy towards Ukraine, and this thesis is unlikely to contribute to stabilizing the situation. Although the leaders of Kosovo can be understood: they wouldn't want to see an analog of the Republic of Serbian in Bosnia and Herzegovina, led by Milorad Dodik, the most pro-Russian politician in the Balkans, on their small territory.

Regional players and external influencers interested in a peaceful development in the Balkans are currently competing not only with each other, overcoming intrigue and mistrust. They also have to consider Russia's potential subversive activity, for which the internationalization of the war against Ukraine seems to be an acceptable scenario.

Photo: NATO supports the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia with the assistance of the EU for a political solution that seems to be the only viable one. Italian General Angelo Michele Ristuccia, commander of the NATO mission in Kosovo (KFOR), stated this on September 7 after talks in Brussels with the EU's special representative for the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, Miroslav Lajcak. Source: Agenzia Nova

For now, NATO supports the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, with the assistance of the EU, for a political solution, which appears to be the only viable one. Italian General Angelo Michele Ristuccia, commander of the NATO mission in Kosovo (KFOR), stated this on September 7 during high-level talks in Brussels: "We live in a constant crisis management mode that needs to be managed day by day." "Every time a balance is found, it risks being more fragile than the previous one, and every time the balance is disrupted, it requires enormous diplomatic and military efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table." – said the Italian general.