Moldova’s 2025 Elections: A Decisive Moment for the Country’s European Course

Moldova’s parliamentary elections, which have already begun ahead of the official September 28 vote, are a decisive test of the country’s European path and a key factor for regional stability. Despite its compact size, Moldova is one of the critical links in the security architecture of Eastern Europe. Its political course directly affects not only its internal stability but also Ukraine, which is negotiating accession to the European Union. For Kyiv, it is crucial to have a predictable and pro-European partner at its border — one that will not become a weak link under Kremlin pressure. These elections therefore go far beyond Moldova’s domestic affairs and serve as a test of the EU’s entire regional policy.

Moldova on the European Path: Achievements and Challenges

Following Maia Sandu’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, Moldova intensified its push toward systemic reforms and integration with the EU. Over the past few years, the country has adopted a series of laws addressing anti-corruption, judicial system modernization, and increased transparency in public administration. In 2022, Brussels granted Chișinău the status of an EU candidate country, marking an unprecedented signal of support.
However, this path has been accompanied by persistent attempts by the Kremlin to derail reforms. Through energy blackmail, disinformation campaigns, and support for pro-Russian parties, Moscow is striving to pull Moldova back into its sphere of influence. In 2023–2024, Chișinău faced several waves of protests organized by political forces linked to Russian capital. At this critical juncture, the EU and the US stepped up their support, providing Moldova with financial assistance to diversify its energy supplies and combat disinformation.

Why the September 28 Elections Are Critical

The parliamentary elections in September 2025 must either confirm the pro-European course or, conversely, pave the way for a revanche of pro-Russian forces. Polls indicate that the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), backed by President Sandu, maintains a lead, but its advantage is not absolute. Pro-Russian forces, united around Igor Dodon and his “Patriotic Bloc” list, are attempting to capitalize on economic difficulties and discontent with reforms to mobilize voters.

Moscow has traditionally ramped up its efforts ahead of the vote. The media space is seeing a surge in disinformation messages about “loss of sovereignty,” “external control,” and the “threat of being dragged into war.” The Kremlin’s classic narratives are once again aimed at undermining trust in the European vector and creating the illusion that neutrality and rejection of EU integration will guarantee peace and stability.

The Ukrainian Context Is Equally Important: A Stable Neighbor as a Security Factor

For Ukraine, the outcome of Moldova’s elections carries direct significance. Both countries are moving in sync toward European integration, both have received EU candidate status, and in the coming years, they could successfully complete negotiations across all clusters. For Kyiv, it is vital that Brussels perceives a sense of regional unity: Ukraine and Moldova must act as partners, not problematic cases.

Moreover, Moldova is critically important in terms of security. Transit routes, joint energy projects, and border cooperation make it a strategic ally. Destabilization in Chișinău would automatically create risks for Ukraine’s southwestern border, and in the context of war, any weakness in a neighbor provides the Kremlin with an additional opportunity to exert pressure.

Russian Interference in Moldovan Elections: Historical Examples Exist

Russian attempts to influence Moldova’s elections are not new. In 2016, during the presidential election, Moscow actively supported Igor Dodon, covertly providing his campaign with financial and media backing. In 2019, ahead of parliamentary elections, a large-scale disinformation campaign unfolded in the country, emphasizing the alleged “corruption” of pro-European parties and the “stability” of the Russian vector.

In 2021, during the snap parliamentary elections that brought PAS to power, pro-Russian media spread fake narratives about the “threat of federalization,” the “loss of Transnistria,” and “military entanglement in the conflict with Ukraine.” The Kremlin even attempted to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic, spreading false information about “Western vaccines” while promoting Russia’s Sputnik-V as a symbol of “genuine care.”

Analysis of Interference Precedents in Romania Reveals Common Patterns

Romania, a member of the EU and NATO, has also repeatedly been a target of Russian influence campaigns. During the 2024 presidential election, the Kremlin actively used social media and pro-Russian platforms to discredit the European vector, amplifying messages about the “Brussels dictatorship,” the “decline of traditional values,” and “external control.”

In both countries – Moldova and Romania – Russian tactics were similar: funding populist parties, promoting narratives of neutrality, and creating the illusion of an alternative to European integration. However, while these attempts in Romania were met with strong institutions and EU support, Moldova’s weaker state institutions made its society significantly more vulnerable to external attacks.

The Kremlin Is Conducting Information Attacks Ahead of the September Elections

Today, Moldova is once again at the epicenter of an information war. Through a network of television channels, Telegram groups, and political lobbyists, the Kremlin is spreading messages claiming that “European integration means loss of sovereignty,” “Moldova will become a NATO military base,” and “the economy is heading toward collapse due to sanctions against Russia.” Particular emphasis is placed on socio-economic issues – inflation, high tariffs, and youth migration.

Beyond information attacks, the Transnistria factor persists. The Kremlin is using this region as a tool of pressure to force Chișinău to seek compromises with Moscow. Ahead of the elections, increased activity by pro-Russian political structures in Transnistria aims to destabilize the entire country.

The Elections Are a Test for the EU and Ukraine

The European Union is closely monitoring Moldova’s elections. If the integration course is confirmed, Brussels will gain an additional argument for accelerating negotiations with Kyiv and Chișinău as a tandem. Moldova’s success on the European path will send a signal: even small Eastern European countries can reform and withstand Russian pressure.

For Ukraine, this would mean a stable neighbor with which it can synchronize efforts in security, energy, and EU membership negotiations. A defeat of pro-European forces, however, would open the door to a Moscow revanche, automatically creating new risks for Ukraine’s southern border and undermining the European project on its eastern flank.

Igor Popov, head of United Ukraine Think Tank, expert on political and security issues