NATO Members Are Uncertain About What to Propose to Ukraine at the Summit in Vilnius

Allies within NATO have not yet reached a consensus on what to offer Ukraine at the upcoming summit. Ukraine hopes to receive a "clear signal" at the summit regarding its eventual accession to NATO. 

According to The Washington Post, the United States, having the most influence among the Alliance members, has been cautious in managing expectations from Kyiv, seeking to temper Ukraine's aspirations and shift the focus towards "security guarantees" instead of immediate membership, a topic that many NATO members do not wish to discuss during Ukraine's ongoing conflict with Russia.

Many officials and analysts still believe that NATO's decision in 2008 not to provide a specific date for Ukraine and Georgia's membership in the Alliance made them vulnerable to the aggressor country. Others doubt Ukraine's readiness for accession, citing the need for military reform and the fight against corruption.

The Ukrainian government aims to receive an invitation to NATO even without a fixed date, while also hoping for security commitments from Western countries "as soon as possible." Such security guarantees could deter the country from "major acts of aggression" in the future.

"Almost any outcome of the Vilnius summit, except for an immediate invitation to join NATO, will likely leave Ukraine in a similar state of uncertainty as it found itself after the 2008 Bucharest summit," according to former Assistant Secretary-General for Defense Investment at NATO and representative of the European Council on International Relations, Camille Grand.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg previously stated that NATO members plan to approve a multi-year support package for Ukraine at the Vilnius summit, aiming to bring Ukraine closer to membership. However, he clarified that there would be no official invitation for Ukraine to join NATO at the summit.

Nevertheless, as The Gaze reported, Stoltenberg promised further assistance to Ukraine in modernizing its Armed Forces and stated that a relevant decision would be made at the summit.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously called on U.S. President Joe Biden to promptly invite Ukraine to NATO. He emphasized that Ukraine understands it cannot join the Alliance while in a state of war, but an invitation would serve as an important signal and motivation for its defenders.

Kyiv has formulated its expectations from the NATO summit in Vilnius regarding membership in the Alliance and security guarantees for Ukraine. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov expects maximum clarity from allies. He stated on Facebook that the failure of the Budapest Memorandum and the disastrous 2008 NATO Bucharest summit were consecutive steps that stimulated Russian aggression against Ukraine, warning that a third mistake could be critical.

Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov, stated that the summit should "end" with President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg standing together and declaring, "Today we have reached a historic decision. Today we have invited Ukraine to join NATO."

Earlier The Gaze reported, that Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, believes that Ukraine's invitation to join the North Atlantic Alliance should be clear. "Our position remains unchanged. We fully support Ukraine's aspirations and their position to take on commitments in such a way that the invitation is clear and cannot be revoked," the minister said.

At the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Ukraine expects clear and understandable action plans from its partners regarding its accession to the Alliance.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a joint statement has been signed with NATO member countries, expressing support for Ukraine's aspirations to join the Alliance.

Several international publications have described the contours of the so-called "Israeli formula."

According to President of Poland Andrzej Duda, the agreement does not include Ukraine's membership in NATO but promises a 10-year security partnership similar to the U.S.-Israel alliance. This cooperation does not entail mutual defense obligations but prioritizes arms supplies, deepening intelligence and military cooperation, and the transfer of unique advanced technologies.

It is also expected that this model will serve as a basis for building infrastructure that will facilitate Ukraine's rapid integration into NATO without making the Alliance a party to the conflict with Russia. This approach receives a special response from allies who want to avoid any hint of escalation at all costs.