Russia Could Threaten NATO Sooner Than Expected, ISW Warns
Russia may become a credible military threat to NATO well before the timeline projected by Western intelligence agencies.
The Gaze reports this, referring to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The think tank says Moscow’s ongoing sabotage operations and espionage activities across Europe point to preparations for a potential confrontation with the Alliance.
ISW analysts warn that Russia’s expanding long-range strike capabilities, advanced drone production, and ongoing military mobilization suggest it is rebuilding its forces faster than many Western officials anticipate.
Despite heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine, Moscow is creating new units and assembling a strategic reserve that could be deployed not only in Ukraine but also along NATO’s eastern flank.
“Russia is developing concepts of operation and warfighting tactics that allow Russia to pursue large scale combat operations without using masses of tanks or armor, while effectively denying an adversary from using tanks or armor at scale. Russia is also learning how to achieve the effects of battlefield air interdiction in an adversary’s rear without establishing air superiority or air supremacy,” the report said.
In recent months, European authorities have reported a surge in unidentified drone flights over military and energy facilities in several countries, including Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Germany, and France. Some airports temporarily halted civilian flights following the incidents.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, many of these drones were launched from Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers, which operate under opaque ownership structures to avoid sanctions.
European governments are increasingly treating these incursions as potential acts of hybrid warfare. Germany has already begun drafting legislation that would authorize police to shoot down unidentified drones violating restricted airspace.
ISW analysts note that Russia is developing new operational tactics designed to conduct large-scale warfare with reduced reliance on tanks and heavy armored vehicles, instead emphasizing drones, precision munitions, and electronic warfare.
Such methods, they argue, could enable Moscow to sustain prolonged conflicts while limiting exposure to Western-supplied anti-armor systems.
The institute also cautions that the Kremlin is unlikely to wait for a full military recovery before escalating its aggression. Having gained substantial combat experience in Ukraine, Russian forces could create new threats soon after the current conflict ends, forcing NATO to adapt rapidly.
“There are no indications that the Russian military command would need to wait until the Russian military reconstitutes to its full strength before intensifying its attacks against NATO member states,” ISW warned. “NATO and its allies must prepare to deter and, if necessary, defeat threats that Russia will likely pose immediately following the end of active fighting in Ukraine, but also into the future.”
Read more on The Gaze: Russian Threats to NATO and Europe in 2025