NATO Reboots
NATO is rebuilding its strength and resolve. As part of the agreed measures, the US is deploying Tomahawk missiles and hypersonic weapons in Western Europe. Countries on NATO's eastern flank are increasing their defence spending. The alliance is openly announcing the creation of a group of allies in East Asia. This follows decades of a more passive approach and unilateral disarmament. It appears that the times when NATO could ensure the inviolability of its members' borders are returning.
The picture of NATO celebrating its 75th anniversary is somewhat controversial against the backdrop of rising tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. Yes, NATO is becoming a point of attraction for South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, "The war in Ukraine demonstrates how closely Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are connected," and if Putin wins in Ukraine, it opens the way for Xi. The world is becoming tight and dangerous. NATO is trying to address this.
The sharpest debate centred around supporting Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression. What was whispered about six months ago and was feared to even think about a year ago at the NATO Summit in Vilnius, has now come to the discussion panel in Washington and is very close to being realised. In the trenches in eastern Ukraine, soldiers complain about the slow pace of support and the insufficient power of sanctions against Russia. Finally, these voices have been heard in Brussels and Washington.
Photo: "I believe the next step will be an invitation, followed by membership. It's clear that we won't be in NATO until the war in Ukraine is over. But I hope we will prevail," said Volodymyr Zelensky (left) at a press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington on 11 July. Source: president.gov.ua
At the final press conference of the summit, Jens Stoltenberg, in the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced that Ukraine has the right to use weapons supplied by allies to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory. "There is no doubt that Ukraine has the right to use the weapons they receive to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory," Stoltenberg said, adding that "Russia invaded Ukraine, and this is a blatant violation of international law. Under international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defence, and NATO allies have the right to assist Ukraine in self-defence without becoming a party to the conflict."
Indeed, this "without becoming a party to the conflict" – the fear of so-called escalation – encourages Putin to raise the stakes almost weekly. Support, arms supplies, and the introduction of sanctions, unfortunately, happen too slowly and thus belatedly. As a result, Russia manages to adapt and continues to kill Ukrainian civilians and destroy the Ukrainian economy.
For example, the situation is not so straightforward with the missiles that Ukraine receives from NATO member states.
During the NATO summit in Washington, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Ukraine has the right to use British Storm Shadow missiles against military targets on Russian territory.
However, the next day, on 11 July, The Telegraph, citing government sources, reported that Downing Street had to clarify that it had not authorised Ukraine to use Storm Shadows to strike inside Russia. This effectively retracted Starmer's statement. It is worth noting that the British government had allowed Kyiv to use British weapons to target sites in Crimea and mainland Ukraine, but prohibited their use against targets within Russia.
"There is no doubt that Ukraine has the right to use the weapons they receive to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory."
However, despite the lack of more decisive statements, there are signals that NATO is regaining the capabilities that allowed this defence bloc to guarantee the security of its members for the past 72 years. This includes the deployment of long-range non-nuclear missile weapons in Europe and the development of new missile systems. But why not 75 years, only 72? After all, NATO is 75 years old. That’s precisely because for the past two and a half years, NATO has been unable to counter the dramatic rise of the Russian threat and even hybrid attacks on European countries by Russia. But NATO's teeth and claws are growing back. This gives the world a chance for a peaceful future. They are growing back, but have not yet fully grown.
Photo: On 11 July, MEP and President of Renew Europe Valérie Hayer called for strict measures against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, stating, "His so-called peace mission is a security threat." Source: Renew Europe
Stoltenberg Speaks Louder
Key points from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s speech ahead of the NATO summit in Washington indicate that changes are underway in the organisation. Stoltenberg appeared on CBS's "Face the Nation" on 7 July 2024. Since he will remain in office until October this year, when he will be succeeded by Mark Rutte, this speech can be considered his plans for the next three months.
During the TV programme, Stoltenberg answered some uncomfortable questions about US President Joe Biden's ability to fulfil his duties. However, more interesting than Stoltenberg’s impressions of Biden in the Oval Office a few weeks ago, was the topic they discussed at that meeting. Firstly, they talked about approving important decisions made at the summit regarding Alliance programmes, and secondly, about the extent of support for Ukraine. Ultimately, the discussion also covered the distribution of the burden of financing defence programmes among NATO member countries. Finally, Stoltenberg had grounds to announce that "European allies are really stepping up and spending record sums on defence."
Stoltenberg also had to answer questions about the prospects of Ukraine joining NATO, specifically the timeline for such accession. "No one has said exactly 10 years. But it is clear that it is a very serious issue to involve Ukraine, because Ukraine is now a country at war," Stoltenberg said. This is a colossal problem for the Alliance – the reluctance to demonstrate its ability to act proactively. While the NATO Secretary General assures of his readiness to strengthen support for Ukraine to ensure its victory, membership for Ukraine is only discussed as a very distant prospect.
"We will make important decisions to strengthen support for Ukraine. NATO will take on the task of providing and coordinating security for Ukraine, as well as training. We will have a command established in Germany and logistics centres in the eastern part of the Alliance to help provide equipment, ammunition, and training for Ukrainian forces," Stoltenberg outlined the main expected outcomes of the summit.
"The only way to achieve peace is to convince President Putin that he will not win on the battlefield," Jens Stoltenberg stated.
But the problem is not just the delay in Ukraine’s accession to NATO. There are already weak points within the Alliance. Neighbours in the Euro-Atlantic community are significantly, though quietly, irritated by the recent tour of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to Moscow and Beijing with a mission he tried to present as pan-European. Stoltenberg noted that "Prime Minister Orbán... made it clear when he went to Moscow that he was not going there on behalf of NATO. So yes, Prime Minister Orbán was in Moscow, but this does not change the joint decisions we made as NATO."
However, for the rest of the world, Orbán’s mission is perceived as it appears from the outside. While Stoltenberg pretends that NATO’s position and Orbán’s position can be separated, some members of the European Parliament are speaking out loud about this and even trying to address the problem. Estonian MEP Riho Terras is collecting signatures in the European Parliament for a letter calling on the EU leadership to invoke Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union against Hungary. This article refers to suspending Hungary’s voting rights due to the recent actions of Prime Minister Orbán.
Yes, on 10 July, there were reports suggesting that the most severe political sanction, which could be imposed on an EU member state, is unlikely to be applied. However, on 11 July, Valerie Hayer, President of Renew Europe, stated that "The Prime Minister of Hungary is undermining the positions approved by the European Union and acting against our interests, and this must be stopped... It is time to curb Viktor Orbán's rogue presidency in the Council. His so-called peace mission is a threat to security, his isolated communication is merely a smokescreen for his interests, and it will fail spectacularly."
Meanwhile, Jens Stoltenberg is intensifying his rhetoric, and on the eve of the summit, he announced more focused plans: "The simplest way to end the war is to lose the war. But that is not peace. That is occupation. So, we need a strong, just peace. And the only way to achieve this is to convince President Putin that he will not win on the battlefield."
Stoltenberg believes that the only way to convince Putin that he will not win on the battlefield is by providing military support to Ukraine. "A negotiated solution, which is sustainable for Ukraine, requires military support for Ukraine," he explained.
Photo: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the most important issues of the NATO Summit: supporting Ukraine, strengthening NATO's deterrence and defence, and deepening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. Source: Jens Stoltenberg, X (formerly Twitter).
Moreover, for perhaps the first time, the NATO Secretary General has so clearly commented on the strategy concerning China: "...the war in Ukraine shows how closely connected Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are." This refers to the formation of an "axis of evil" that includes these four countries. Furthermore, Stoltenberg announced: "China is the main source of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. President Xi and President Putin, they all want NATO and the United States to be defeated in Ukraine. And if Putin wins in Ukraine, it will not only embolden President Putin. It will also embolden President Xi."
In the first week of July, the US European Command raised the threat level at bases on the continent to so-called "Charlie." This is the second highest of the five threat levels. Stoltenberg had to answer questions about the sources of information and the reasons for this decision. "We must always be vigilant and aware of the threat of terrorist actions. Therefore, it is important for US Command to be vigilant and make decisions at the levels of readiness they deem necessary," he said. According to him, the factors for this include the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza, and the Olympics.
In October, Mark Rutte, who until recently held the post of Prime Minister of the Netherlands, will replace Stoltenberg. It is expected that Rutte will even more actively and firmly than his predecessor strengthen NATO's position regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Alliance Begins Investing in Security
The increased threats from Russia and its allies have led to a gradual rise in defence spending by NATO member countries. In 2023, total expenditures by NATO members amounted to $1.341 trillion, accounting for 55% of global military spending. However, this figure is somewhat misleading, as most European governments did not meet NATO's requirement of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence in 2023.
For example, in 2022, only seven NATO members reached this target. By 2023, this number had increased to 11 out of the 31 Alliance members. According to Jens Stoltenberg, by 2024, the number of countries meeting this target will have risen to 23.
During Donald Trump's presidency, European NATO members received persistent requests from Washington to take on a greater share of the collective defence burden within the Alliance. As we can see, not everyone heeded this advice. However, after Russia invaded Ukraine, making the Russian threat a stark reality, European politicians began to find the funds for defence.
Photo: Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds (right), Lithuanian Defence Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas, and Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur (left) proposed an initiative to set a minimum level of defence spending for NATO members at 2.5%. Source: Ministry of Defence of Lithuania
Naturally, the closer a country is to the aggressor’s border, the higher its defence spending relative to GDP. For instance, Poland rapidly increased its defence spending, reaching 3.8% of GDP in 2023. And this is not the limit: Warsaw aims to raise defence spending to 4% of GDP.
Previously, we reported that Polish President Andrzej Duda had already called on NATO members to invest more in defence amidst justified fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin might attempt to attack NATO in the coming years. His concerns are understandable. In France, defence spending stands at 1.9% of GDP, and in Italy, it is only 1.5%. Moreover, Italy, along with Romania and Greece, did not increase their military spending in 2023, although other NATO countries did.
Among the “older” European NATO members, the UK had the highest relative defence spending in 2023, at 2.3% of GDP. London plans to raise this figure to 2.5%, a plan that dates back to the tenure of Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and was confirmed by the new Prime Minister, Labour’s Keir Starmer. He additionally announced that Britain would conduct a “strategic review of its defence capabilities.”
The largest economy in continental Europe, Germany, significantly increased its defence spending in 2023 – by 48% compared to 2014. However, its defence budget remains at only 1.7% of GDP.
Further east, defence budgets are even higher. For instance, in Finland, which recently joined NATO, defence spending already stands at 2.5% of GDP. Estonia's defence expenditure was 2.9% of GDP in 2023. Lithuania’s defence spending is 2.8% of GDP, while Latvia’s is 2.4%.
“All members of the Alliance should move towards defence spending levels of at least 2.5% of GDP. I am pleased that the Baltic countries are setting an example for their allies,” said Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur.
Like Poland, these countries believe that 2% of GDP on defence is insufficient. Estonia, a NATO member since 2004, has been urging other Alliance members to increase their defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP. At a meeting in Palanga (Lithuania) at the end of May, the defence ministers of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia announced the “Allied Capability Delivery Commitment” (ACDC) initiative, which was to be discussed at the NATO summit in Washington.
This initiative includes strengthening air defences and equalising defence capabilities across different NATO regions. It should be noted that the ACDC initiative also includes a proposal to increase defence funding requirements to 2.5% of GDP.
Speaking at a press conference alongside Latvia’s Andris Sprūds and Lithuania’s Laurynas Kasčiūnas, Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that the ACDC initiative is already in effect in these three countries. The ministers expressed hope that all NATO allies would adopt this initiative no later than this summer, as the minimum expenditure level of 2% is no longer “sufficient.”
However, not everyone is as concerned: on 11 July, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised that Canada would reach NATO’s defence spending target of 2% of GDP only by 2032, despite pressure from the United States to increase its contribution to the financial burden.