NATO Test Ahead: Germany Sounds the Alarm on Russia
As the West reassesses the stakes of Russia’s war against Ukraine, a growing chorus of warnings suggests the war may be only the beginning. When such a message comes from the head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), a figure speaking for a nation known for its caution, it is an alarming call that is difficult to ignore.
“It’s not too Late to Wake Up”
Bruno Kahl is not known for public rhetoric. His speeches are rare. But this time, he decided to speak directly: according to the BND's assessment, Russia is preparing to test the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 – the very article that guarantees that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all. These are not hypothetical threats, but real scenarios backed up by intelligence data. It is about preparations that are already underway.
Kahl stated unequivocally that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is only the first stage of Russia’s expansion. The Kremlin’s goal is to “push NATO back to the borders of the 1990s” (restoring its “sphere of influence”), “drive the U.S. out of Europe,” and expand its influence “by all means available.”
What Might a “Test” of Article 5 Look Like? Potential Russian Scenarios
The BND and other Western agents do not expect a classic “tank invasion” across the Polish or Latvian border. Instead, they are considering more covert and “deniable” operations designed to divide the Alliance.
Scenario No. 1: “Limited” military operations. This could involve an attack on isolated territories such as Norway's Svalbard archipelago under the pretext of “protecting Russian interests,” or a provoked “defense” of the Russian-speaking population in the Baltic states. These cases would be direct challenges to Article 5 that could cause disagreement within NATO over the appropriate scale of the response.
Scenario No. 2: Escalation of hybrid warfare. The BND and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) are recording a sharp increase in cyberattacks, sabotage (e.g., arson), and disinformation campaigns targeting Germany and other Western countries. The use of “low-level agents” for sabotage, such as arson attacks on logistics centers, is becoming a new reality. The aim is to undermine society, damage the economy, and erode the will to resist.
Scenario No. 3: Strategic blackmail and division of the Alliance. Russia will actively search for “weak links” within NATO, attempting to pull individual countries to its side or provoke them into uncoordinated actions. Putin will deliberately “test the West’s red lines.”
All these scenarios could unfold simultaneously. The central goal is to divide NATO from within – to prevent allies from reaching a consensus on whether a given action constitutes a casus belli, or whether it is still possible to “give diplomacy a chance.”
Why Now? Time is a Key Factor in the Threat
The central point of Kal’s statement is that Ukraine is only an intermediate goal in the Kremlin’s long-term strategy toward the West. The end of the war does not mean peace – it may, in fact, accelerate the threat to NATO. Kal directly warns that if the war in Ukraine ends (for example, is frozen) by 2029–2030 on terms favorable to the Russian Federation, this will allow the Kremlin to redirect its resources and aggression against Europe much faster. Danish intelligence confirms that Russia could deploy significant forces to the borders of other European countries within just six months after the war in Ukraine ends.
Germany’s Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer believes that Russia may be capable of a large-scale offensive against NATO as early as 2029. Finnish intelligence, meanwhile, has already recorded the large-scale construction of new barracks, headquarters, and rail infrastructure near its border.
The Kremlin sees the West as tired, divided, and preoccupied with domestic elections and economic challenges. Isn’t now the most opportune moment to “press on the West’s weak spot”?
Russia not Only Wants to – It is Preparing. Rapidly
Russia’s wartime industry is no longer a myth, but a fact. The BND’s warnings are based on specific military and economic indicators. First, unprecedented militarization. The Russian Federation’s military budget in 2025 will reach approximately €120 billion (over 6% of GDP) – nearly four times higher than in 2021. Second, massive army expansion. The number of active personnel in the Russian Armed Forces is set to increase to 1.5 million, which is double the number before the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. Third, an industrial boom. Russia is manufacturing or modernizing around 1,500 tanks annually – far exceeding the current needs of the war in Ukraine. A similar increase is seen in the production of ammunition and weapons overall.
According to estimates by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is actively rebuilding the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, aimed directly at confronting NATO, while also intensifying domestic propaganda to radicalize its society against the West.
This is not a defense. It is preparation for a new theater of operations.
Between Fear and Awakening: How Germany is Responding
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated back in 2024 that Germany must be “ready for war” by 2029. He has repeatedly emphasized that experts assess the risk of Russian aggression against NATO in the 2029–2030 period as high. Inspector General Broyer noted that Germany currently lacks around 100,000 soldiers to fulfil its NATO commitments. The goal is to expand the active army to 200,000 and increase total forces (including reserves) to approximately 460,000. Achieving this will likely require a return to some form of compulsory military service.
In March 2025, German political parties agreed on a multi-billion euro defense package financed through credit, exempting these expenditures from debt restrictions. In September 2025, the Bundeswehr will conduct large-scale exercises to practice actions in case of an attack by the Russian Federation on NATO members. Meanwhile, growing attention is being paid to countering Russian espionage, sabotage, and cyberattacks. New legislation is in development to strengthen security checks in sensitive sectors.
In general, the threat is recognized, but is there enough time?
Why This is Not Only a Threat to Europe
The Kremlin sees the weakening of NATO and the expulsion of the U.S. from Europe as a key goal. “Testing” Article 5 is one tool to achieve this. Any successful testing of Article 5, especially if it exposes division or an inadequate response from the Alliance, could trigger more aggressive actions by Russia. Even without a full-scale invasion, constant cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation are draining the economies and societies of NATO countries, undermining their resilience and unity.
Escalation in the Baltic states or other “flashpoints” could bring NATO into direct confrontation between nuclear powers with unpredictable consequences. NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Cavoli, has warned that the Russian military is expected to become even stronger after the war in Ukraine. A successful “test” of Article 5 could undermine the very foundation of NATO – the principle of collective defense, weakening trust among allies and plunging international order into chaos.
A split in NATO would be a geopolitical earthquake
China would get the message that the West is weak. Aggressive regimes around the world, from Iran to North Korea, would feel emboldened. Europe could find itself isolated and vulnerable.
As long as Ukrainian FPV drones strike strategic air bases deep inside Russia, Putin cannot fully redirect resources to a new front. As long as Ukraine holds out, NATO has time. But what if Ukraine falls?What if the war is “frozen” on the Kremlin’s terms? Then the clock will start ticking faster, and Article 5 will become not a guarantee, but a matter of time.
In fact, this is not fear – it is an opportunity. An opportunity to prevent war by preparing for it. But action must be taken not in 2029, but in 2025. We need weapons, trained personnel, and a mobilized economy. We need clear rhetoric: an attack on anyone is an attack on everyone. We need support for Ukraine – not out of altruism, but out of cold calculation. The Kremlin will not stop. It will keep pushing. And it wants to know: can the West withstand the pressure?
The world is entering the most dangerous period since the Cold War. The words of the head of Germany’s intelligence chief are a final wake-up call to Europe and North America – the time for illusions is over. We must prepare, not just to avoid war, but to win it, or better yet, to force the aggressor to abandon it through timely preparation and unity.
Ihor Petrenko, founder of the “United Ukraine” Think Tank, Doctor of Political Sciences