North Korean Intervention Accelerates NATO Assistance to Ukraine

Shortly after public confirmation of North Korean troops on the Russia-Ukraine front, a notable yet understated event took place. An unnamed Ukrainian defence company signed an agreement with the Belgian branch of the European high-tech and military-tech company, Thales, to produce anti-drone missiles in Ukraine. While this is not the first agreement for production or repair of Western military equipment in Ukraine, it is the first to involve sensitive missile technology. Unlike previous deals for funding arms production with foreign partners, the Thales agreement stands out by including the transfer of fundamentally new technologies to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Strategic Industries announced on 2 November that the Ukrainian defence company had signed a memorandum of understanding with Thales Belgium for the joint production of anti-drone missiles. According to Minister Herman Smetanin, the project aims to jointly produce air defence systems targeting unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs): “The signed Memorandum of Understanding lays the groundwork for joint production of C-UAS missiles. In the future, both parties look forward to deepening cooperation and enabling the transfer of technologies and equipment for the production of C-UAS components...”

Photo: During the recent Nordic Summit in Reykjavik, Ukraine has secured a new domestic arms procurement programme, funded by Northern European partners. Source: president.gov.ua.

A Vital Defence Measure

Anti-drone capabilities are crucial for Ukraine, especially against long-range, heavy drones which threaten critical infrastructure. This threat has escalated significantly in recent weeks. Russia has been deploying "Shahed" drones – kamikaze UAVs capable of carrying 50kg warheads. Moscow acquired this technology from Tehran and has since launched mass production of these systems, reflected in the surge of drone attacks this autumn.

In the first ten months of 2024, Russia deployed 6,987 "Shaheds" against Ukraine, and in October alone, 2,023 were launched. Recently, daily deployment of these drones has reached 60-100 units. However, this challenge was not entirely unexpected for Ukraine, given the scale of Russia's internationally backed aggression. The signing of this memorandum likely accelerated after increased signs of North Korean involvement in the conflict.

The Moscow-Pyongyang-Tehran “axis of evil” has become increasingly apparent over the past year, particularly after large-scale shipments of North Korean artillery shells and ballistic missiles. Iran has also supplied "Shahed" drones and components, and there are reports of possible Iranian ballistic missile shipments for use against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow has acquired microelectronics components and precision machine tools through China. The latest signal was North Korean troops’ involvement in combat against Ukrainian forces.

On 30 October, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and South Korean Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun called on North Korea to withdraw its forces from Russia, as they may be used in the conflict against Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also mentioned North Korean presence near Ukraine’s border in a briefing on 28 October. This came just weeks after Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Agency reported the presence of North Korean troops behind Russian lines. While international assessments estimated the North Korean contingent at 8-10,000 personnel, Ukrainian intelligence cited figures of at least 12,000.

Confirmation of North Korean involvement in combat came last weekend when Ukrainian troops shared photographic evidence on social media. Official statements on this are expected soon.

The Thales agreement represents a pioneering initiative for Ukraine, particularly for its inclusion of technology transfer provisions.

Details on the agreement with Thales remain limited, especially regarding the specific missiles involved. However, available information and reasonable assumptions suggest that Thales may be facilitating production of the high-speed STARStreak missile in Ukraine. These missiles can be deployed from various platforms, including handheld and vehicle-mounted systems, and are distinguished by their high speed – exceeding Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound.

Ukraine received the STARStreak system from the United Kingdom in spring 2022 and used it effectively against Russian helicopters and frontline attack aircraft. Since early this year, the system has reportedly been successful in countering drones. In July, Ukraine’s General Staff announced an additional programme for training STARStreak operators in the UK, likely focusing on anti-drone operations, as Ukrainian forces already had substantial experience in targeting large aircraft such as planes and helicopters.

Photo: The Bohdana howitzer – currently the largest project for the procurement of Ukrainian weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine funded by foreign partners. This project has been financed by Denmark. Source: wiki.

A Broader Support Network

While the Thales project is groundbreaking due to its technology transfer, two other areas of international support are also highly significant: foreign equipment production and repair at subsidiaries in Ukraine, and foreign government funding for production of Ukraine-made arms and ammunition at local defence enterprises.

Denmark led the way in external funding for Ukrainian arms production, signing an agreement on 10 July 2024 to fund production and delivery of 18 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, with deliveries completed by mid-September.

During the recent Nordic Summit in Reykjavik, the Prime Ministers of Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden collectively pledged €195 million to procure weaponry via Ukraine’s defence industry.

At the same time, foreign companies are expanding operations in Ukraine. In July, German defence contractor Rheinmetall began constructing an ammunition factory, with an announced production target of 100,000 shells of 155mm calibre. In October, Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger stated in an interview with a Ukrainian news channel that four factories are planned for Ukraine, including one expected to deliver a batch of Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicles by year-end. Rheinmetall also plans to produce shell powder, tank ammunition, and air defence systems in Ukraine.

Photo: One of Rheinmetall’s plants is set to deliver a batch of Lynx IFVs by the end of the year. Source: Rheinmetall.

Two additional projects were announced in June 2024 – one from Northrop Grumman and another from Franco-German manufacturer KNDS. KNDS is partnering with a Ukrainian company to produce 155mm artillery shells, and Northrop Grumman is preparing to manufacture medium-calibre rounds, possibly 25mm, for the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle, a favourite among Ukrainian troops.

The deployment of North Korean troops alongside Russia may prompt South Korea to reconsider its stance on lethal weapon supplies to Ukraine.

This policy shift became apparent after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met with Polish President Andrzej Duda, where Yoon stated that South Korea may "reconsider" arms supplies to Ukraine if North Korean troops are stationed in Russia for deployment against Ukraine. Following this, on 1 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS that Kyiv would formally request arms from South Korea due to North Korean involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

To date, South Korea has supported Ukraine with humanitarian projects, medical equipment, and supplies but has refrained from sending weapons. Meanwhile, Poland, which sees itself as a potential target of Russian aggression, has successfully purchased large quantities of South Korean weaponry, including missiles, armoured vehicles, and artillery systems. During Duda’s visit to Seoul, further agreements were signed, including the acquisition of additional K-2 tanks.