Putin Returns to Aggressive Rhetoric
On December 14, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin held another "direct line" with citizens. This obviously staged show was meant to show the people a lively leader who, in addition, demonstrated confidence in his own and Russia's future. Some of the questions concerned internal Russian problems, the number of which is only growing over time. But the key issues were still related to foreign policy, where the Russian leader again turned to extremely aggressive rhetoric.
And while constant aggressive statements against Ukraine should not surprise anyone, the Russian leadership is now clearly going beyond threats to Ukraine alone. In particular, a few days after the "direct line," Putin threatened Finland, a new NATO member, claiming that they had not had interstate problems before, but now they "will". Other Russian spokespersons are also working in the context of the most aggressive rhetoric.
Such rhetoric only shows that Putin feels like a "winner" and therefore believes that he can try to dictate his will not only to Ukraine, but to the entire "West," with which he believes he is at war.
Putin's "Direct Line" and the Goals of Russian Aggression
The Institute for War Studies analyzed Putin's statements during his press conference. The willingness of the Kremlin leader to devote a significant part of his speech to the war in Ukraine indicates his growing confidence in his ability to address the Russian public on this issue. And this, in turn, may indicate his confidence in Russia's prospects in Ukraine after the relatively successful Russian defense operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region and the significant fluctuations in Western support for Ukraine.
The report also notes: "Putin did not describe exactly what changes in the Ukrainian armed forces would constitute 'demilitarization,' although Russia's goal is almost certainly to deprive Ukraine of the means to defend itself and allow Russia to impose its will on Ukraine by force whenever the Kremlin so desires." His calls for Ukrainian "neutrality" are demands that Ukraine amend its constitution, which currently commits Ukraine to seeking NATO membership, and commit not to join NATO or the European Union.
These are part of a longer list of broader Russian goals beyond Ukraine, which include a permanent moratorium on NATO expansion, a ban on Western strike weapons near Russia, and a de facto return of NATO forces to 1997 levels. Putin reiterated his unwillingness to engage in negotiations with Ukraine and stated that peace will only come when Russia achieves its maximalist goals. The ISW continues to assess that Putin's maximalist goals are tantamount to the complete surrender of Ukraine and the West and are not in their interests.
No Way to Negotiate
Not only Western experts, but also representatives of the local authorities heard Putin. In particular, the US presidential administration is urging Congress not to delay the approval of aid to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby did so, citing Putin's statements as well. Kirby quoted Putin as saying that "his aggression in Ukraine will not end, and peace will only come when his goals are achieved."
It is obvious that Putin was heard, and the most important message of the Russian leader is the following: he no longer agrees to freeze the war in Ukraine, but wants to win a complete victory, and is waiting for Ukraine's surrender. The theses of "demilitarization" and "non-aligned status" should not mislead anyone. In fact, they boil down to the demand for Ukraine's disarmament and isolation from any foreign aid, which will make it an easy prey for Putin. Accordingly, he will be able to destroy it relatively comfortably, and this is the real goal of the Russian dictator.
In this situation, numerous proposals that have been put forward in the West by diplomats, journalists, and various experts over the past year look naive. They include the possibility of freezing the war with Ukraine's "partial accession" to NATO, freezing the conflict with a "political solution" to the conflict, and "security guarantees" for Ukraine under such conditions. The Russian side does not want anything like this, as Putin himself and his subordinates at various levels have publicly stated. A war to "victory," that is, to the destruction of Ukraine, is all they want.
Therefore, there is simply no other option than the one set out in the peace plan of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Only the complete liberation of the territory of Ukraine, payment of compensation, punishment of the perpetrators, and restoration of justice will ensure peace. Anything else only fuels Putin's aggressive intentions to realize his goals of complete destruction of Ukraine. Long talks about "freezing the war" have only allowed the Kremlin dictator to reaffirm his belief that the West is weak, and therefore he can and should push it over Ukraine, and then he will be able to win the war.
In fact, Putin himself does not leave the civilized world with any special options. They must either finally unite around Ukraine and provide it with everything it needs to defeat Russia, or prepare for the extremely difficult consequences of Russia's growing imperialism and aggression. Not only against Ukraine, but also against NATO members, who are already being threatened by Putin.
There will be no agreement, because Putin himself does not want an agreement - he believes he can win. Understanding this simple fact should be the basis for Western policy in the near future.