Russia Faces $30 Billion Drop in Oil and Gas Revenues in 2025
Russia is on track to lose an estimated $30 billion in oil and gas revenues this year, with total losses potentially reaching $50 billion in 2026.
The Gaze reports this, referring to assessments presented by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine at the Kyiv Sanctions Summit.
Speaking at the event, First Deputy Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service Oleh Luhovskyi emphasized that despite Moscow’s efforts to bypass restrictions, the energy sector remains the financial backbone of Russia’s war machine.
Over the past year, the international sanctions coalition has imposed measures against more than 500 entities tied to Russia’s oil and gas industry, including tanker fleets, traders, financial institutions, and companies involved in the shadow fleet logistics network.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the price of Russian oil in seaports has fallen to around $40 per barrel and the discount on Urals crude widened from $12 to nearly $20 per barrel, further reducing export profitability. Tanker freight costs have risen by roughly 15%, while November saw a notable decline in seaborne export volumes.
As a result, Russia’s domestic oil production has already dropped by 30 million tons in 2025, with new well drilling down by 20% year-on-year. “These signals show sustained pressure. The downward trend will continue,” Luhovskyi noted.
Ukraine’s intelligence services warn that shrinking export margins, production decline, and rising logistics risks are pushing the Russian federal budget into a widening deficit. Next year, the financial gap could deepen sharply if sanctions-related restrictions tighten further.
The Kyiv Sanctions Summit, attended by senior officials from Ukraine, the EU, the United Kingdom, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, Canada and multiple other partners, focused on strengthening coordinated pressure against Russia and scaling tools that undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war.
The forum is expected to produce new policy recommendations aimed at tightening enforcement, restricting logistics support for the shadow fleet, and closing export loopholes.
As The Gaze reported earlier, India’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, has completely stopped importing Russian crude to its vast Jamnagar refining hub, moving early to comply with sanctions targeting Moscow’s oil sector. The company had a long-term deal with Russia’s Rosneft to buy nearly 500,000 barrels of crude per day.
Alongside this, four Democratic U.S. senators have accused Donald Trump's administration of weak enforcement of sanctions against Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project.