The Fate of the USSR and Russia in the Works of Science Fiction Writers

The Wagnerian, quite absurd, march to Moscow showed that making political predictions is, in general, a hopeless endeavor. No one seemed to anticipate a tank getting stuck in the gates of the Rostov circus, with no resistance whatsoever. Likewise nobody predicted many other things, including the embarrassment of " the second world army." Well, we may forgive political analysts , but there are people who are in fact supposed to predict the future. It's their profession, and I'm not talking about fortune tellers with crystal balls, but rather about science fiction writers. They are not bound, like political analysts, to adhere to boring facts; they enjoy complete creative freedom, which means daring visions of the future. I don't know if any political analysts foresaw the USSR's collapse happening literally overnight. But what about science fiction writers? Let's take a look.

Let's set aside the most famous works of Soviet science fiction writers from the 1950s to the 1970s, who envisioned the world as a utopian global commune. If these authors had written about the collapse of the USSR, they simply wouldn't have been understood - neither by the authorities, nor by the censors, nor even by the majority of readers. However, there were exceptions. For example, Vasily Aksyonov's famous novel "The Island of Crimea," which was published in the United States in 1979. In this alternative reality, Crimea, an independent and prosperous territory under European protection, eventually merges with the USSR in a self-destructive ecstasy. Among other things, it is indicative that the USSR and Russia are roughly the same for the author - it is nostalgia for the "deep" Russia that drives the protagonist of the story to promote a destructive agenda for the "common destiny."

Western authors also do not make much distinction between the USSR and Russia; essentially, Russia is often understood as the USSR. Moreover, they are not particularly interested in the USSR as such - but rather as a driving force on the geopolitical stage or a vague threat in the background. Many authors of the SF Golden Age (i.e., the 1950s and 1960s) view it as an alternative to the free world; it appears more frequently in such works than even China. For example, in "The Puppet Masters" (Robert A. Heinlein, 1951), the heroes discover that the USSR, like the United States, has been invaded by alien invaders through indirect signs such as epidemics that break out in the territory of the USSR. You won't get any open information from the Russians, but it is known that their public health system is well-established, so something is wrong.

"The Puppet Masters" was written during the Cold War years. Over time, attitudes towards the USSR warmed somewhat. In "2010: Odyssey Two" (Arthur C. Clarke, 1982), action is taken place in a time that is indicated by the title. A joint Soviet-American expedition is sent to mysterious Black Monolith orbits Jupiter. Evidently such a novel could only be written after the Apollo-Soyuz docking (1975), but it is noteworthy that the author cleverly outwits Soviet censorship: all the Russian characters bear names of dissidents well-known in the West. The focus here is on the space program, not on politic. A little later, in "Red Star, Winter Orbit" (1983) by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling, the entire near space is handed over to the USSR, but it also ends badly.

Source: Collage by Leonid Lukashenko

But did anyone foresee a scenario in which the USSR eventually dissolved? Surprisingly, it was not the giants of science fiction, but rather authors from the second tier, so to speak, who proved to be more insightful. For example, in Eric Frank Russell's novel "The Great Explosion" (1962), among the countries seeking opportunities to use a newly discovered method of faster-than-light space travel, a fleeting mention is made of an independent Ukraine. The USSR also happily collapses in the novel "The Avatar" (1978) by Poul Anderson, where the new dictator Makarov, the ruler of Great Russia, dreams of "reunification with Belarus, Ukraine, and Siberia." This not only demonstrates the author's foresight but also, to some extent, his geopolitical optimism - after all, even Siberia has separated.

But let's be honest, plots related to the USSR did not particularly interest Western authors - which is quite natural, as they were more concerned with their own affairs. For example, Heinlein pays far more attention to various models of the future of the United States; from a theocratic dictatorship ("If This Goes On…," 1940) to a nation that has mastered at least the near space ("Stranger in a Strange Land," 1961) and to a "patchwork quilt" of independent states in "Friday" (1982).

Once again, there are exceptions. In 1986, American author Tom Clancy (Americans seem to be more interested in their geopolitical adversaries than Europeans; mostly the authors mentioned here are Americans) wrote the novel "Red Storm Rising." In the novel, due to a terrorist attack by a radical Islamist on an oil refinery in Nizhnevartovsk, the USSR, in order to secure oil supplies, launches a Third World War and invades Germany under a fabricated pretext. After a kaleidoscope of battle scenes and covert intrigues, a peace party comes to power in the USSR, and a nuclear war is averted. In such novels, nuclear war is almost always prevented, as apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic scenarios belong to a different genre.

Source: Collage by Leonid Lukashenko

Another exception is the novel "Russian Spring" by Norman Spinrad, which was , dedicated to Mikhail Gorbachev and published simultaneously in Russia and the United States in 1991 when sympathy for the USSR was high. Here we deal with the political mocking mirror : the United States, under hypocritical pretexts, annexes Latin America, portraying Russia as an aggressive outcast state opposing the "rotten Europe." Even the quoted excerpts of American politicians and media in the novel strikingly resemble the rhetoric used by Russia today, while the Soviet Union, on the contrary, eventually joins the United Europe and prospers. However, national contradictions tear it apart. Nationalist Kronko declares the independence of Ukraine (then still part of the USSR). Other republics also express a desire to secede, and as a result of a coup, power in the USSR falls into the hands of the military, who are ready to quell the rebellious provinces. In self-defense, Ukraine deploys American-supplied missiles with nuclear warheads in major cities and, as a demonstration of its intentions, launches a missile that hits Red Square, replacing the warheads with pig manure. While there is no nuclear contamination, parts of the Kremlin and St. Basil's Cathedral are affected. Just as the world is on the brink of a global nuclear war, a new American president, who is essentially like Gorbachev but better, intervenes and saves the day. In the end, everything turns out well. Even Ukraine finds sovereignty within the global family of fraternal nations.

Source: Collage by Leonid Lukashenko

Furthermore, the coup and the dissolution of the Soviet Union occur, rendering any predictions about the future fate of the USSR irrelevant. While the Soviet Union yet had held a sinister romantic allure in the eyes of Western SF authors, Russia itself didn't pique their interest as much. It was perceived as something functioning in the far east of Europe, associated with bears, vodka, and so on. The future destiny of Russia, understandably, concerned Russians themselves.

However, if we set aside the patriotic commissioned trash, which is a separate story, there are not many key texts on this topic. It is impossible to ignore the sensational (simply because it was the first) story by Alexander Kabakov, "No Return" (1989), which depicts the collapse of Russia, chaos, anarchy, and a military coup in dark and vivid colors ("... the First Constituent Congress of Democratic Parties began its work. Delegates from all political parties of Russia participated in the congress. Foreign delegations arrived as guests at the congress - the Christian Democratic Party of Transcaucasia, the Social Fundamentalists of Turkestan, the Constitutional Party of the United Bukhara and Samarkand Emirates, the Catholic radicals of the Baltic Federation, as well as the Left Communists of Siberia (Irkutsk) <...> Yesterday, unidentified aircraft in the Persian Gulf carried out another nuclear bombardment of a convoy of peaceful ships belonging to the United States of America"). As we can see, Siberia has gained independence here, and the world has lost stability. The protagonist, who has the ability to travel through time, prefers even such a grim future to the stagnation of the late Soviet era. Just as perceptive is Vladimir Voinovich in his satirical novel "Moscow 2042" (1987). The protagonist, using a time machine, finds himself in Moscow of the future, discovering that the USSR has shrunk to become the First Moscow Communist Republic (Moskorep), which exists within the boundaries of Greater Moscow and is surrounded by three "rings of hostility": the "son republics," socialist countries, and the capitalist world. In Moskorep, where the ruling party and secret services have merged, everything is strictly regulated, extreme poverty prevails (newspapers are printed on rolls of toilet paper to save resources), the number five is sacred, and the state-religious system is based on the Five Unity of nationality, party affiliation, religious belief, vigilance, and state security. However, this seemingly stable system does not last long. As a result of a counter-coup in Russia, a monarchical form of government is established, and Russia is declared the United and Indivisible Empire, incorporating Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, effectively transitioning from a parodied military communism to feudalism.

Brought closer to our time, the disintegration of Russia no longer seems as shocking; it appears to happen on its own due to internal centrifugal forces. Vladimir Sorokin's "Telluria" (2013) portrays a Russia (as well as Europe) that has fragmented into numerous micro-states, each with its own way of life and customs, where archaism coexists with advanced biotechnology. In Dmitry Glukhovsky's novel "Outpost" (2019), after the Civil War (the Disintegration), only a small part of the once vast country remains, called the Moscow Empire, confined by a blockade from Europe on one side and an impassable Volga River on the other, with only one surviving bridge. It must be said that Sorokin's patchwork Russia appears more attractive; at least there are no zombies, although there are genetically modified dwarves and giants thanks to biotechnology. Paradoxically, Sorokin was surpassed by an outsider—American author Michael Swanwick—his novel "Dancing With Bears" depicts the same "Balkanized" Russia of the future with its archaic feudal structure, advanced biotechnology, hereditary nobility (including Baroness Lukoil-Gazprom), and the Prince of Muscovy (though genetically modified). It should be noted that Swanwick's novel is on par with "Telluria" in terms of absurdity, dark humor, cultural references, and scope, and in my opinion, even surpasses it.

Photo: Dmitry Glukhovsky's "Outpost" cover, Source: Collage by Leonid Lukashenko

And finally, the cherry on top is the British TV series "Years and Years" (written and produced by Stephen Russell Davies, who was previously the showrunner for "Doctor Who"), which takes place in Britain between 2019 and 2034. Amidst various political upheavals witnessed by the ordinary British family who are passive observers, one thing interests us: the military coup in Ukraine, inspired by Russia, which leads to an influx of refugees into Britain. The filming of the series began on October 22, 2018, and was completed on March 17, 2019. Perhaps this is the closest to our time and a prophetic prediction. At least it could have been prophetic if not for the courage of the Ukrainian people.

Note: The author thanks their friends and colleagues on Facebook for their consultations and suggestions.