The War in Ukraine and the Global Arms Market: Who Has Profited the Most?
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the global arms market. The urgent need to arm and support Ukraine triggered an unprecedented surge in military orders in both the U.S. and Europe.
At the center of this process are leading defense corporations. American companies RTX (formerly Raytheon) and Lockheed Martin, alongside European giant Rheinmetall, have been among the main beneficiaries. Ukraine, meanwhile, has become the world’s largest arms importer, receiving almost 9% of all global supplies — almost half of them from the United States, strengthening its dominance in the defense sector.
The Main Winners: RTX and Lockheed Secure Long-Term Gains
American defense giant RTX, which manufactures the famous Patriot air defense systems and Stinger man-portable air defense systems, has significantly increased its contract volume and profits thanks to massive orders both to help Ukraine and to replenish the stocks of the US Army and its allies. A significant portion of the military aid package approved by Washington is directed specifically through orders from RTX, providing the company with a stable stream of revenue.
Lockheed Martin, producer of HIMARS launchers and GMLRS precision rockets, has also capitalized heavily. Annual production of GMLRS rockets has jumped from 10,000 to over 14,000 units, while new multi-year contracts guarantee high production capacity utilization for years ahead.
Europe’s Rheinmetall: Growth Amid Structural Challenges
Among European corporations, the undisputed leader is Germany's Rheinmetall, which is actively investing in expanding its production capacity amid a sharp increase in demand. In 2024, its turnover exceeded €10 billion, and forecasts for 2025 predict even greater profits thanks to new orders for Ukraine and other Eastern European countries.
At the same time, European manufacturers face serious problems due to a lack of infrastructure, a shortage of skilled workers, and slow adaptation to high production rates. As a result, some orders are being transferred to the US, where production capacities are significantly more powerful and the response to new contracts is more rapid.
Baykar and Israel: Rising New Players
The war has created new opportunities for smaller but ambitious defense producers. Turkish company Baykar — maker of the TB2 and Akıncı strike drones — became a household name in Ukraine. Beyond direct sales, Baykar committed over $100 million to building a Ukrainian plant expected to produce about 120 drones annually once operational.
Israeli defense firms have also seen record profits, boosted by parallel demand generated by conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Precision-guided weapons and advanced defense systems have found eager buyers worldwide.
Ukraine’s Path: From Importer to Producer
Ukraine is leveraging international aid not only to buy weapons but also to build its own defense industry. Joint ventures now include Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry in Kyiv, producing ammunition and equipment, and partnerships with Czech company CZ for small arms manufacturing.
Cooperation extends to drone production with Latvian, Turkish, and American firms. These initiatives enhance Ukraine’s technological independence, create jobs, and attract foreign investment — turning defense production into a pillar of economic strategy.
A Market Transformed: Winners and Next Steps
The war has accelerated a global shift. The U.S. and its defense giants remain the main economic winners, while Europe benefits but continues to struggle with capacity limitations. Turkey’s Baykar and Israeli firms have carved out new global niches.
Ukraine itself is transitioning from consumer to producer, with government contracts currently covering only a third of its domestic industry’s capacity. Over time, Kyiv is expected to move toward an export-oriented model, joining new technological alliances with its Western partners.
Global demand for weapons will remain high for at least the next five years — even after the fighting in Ukraine subsides. NATO’s stockpiles must be replenished, and Eastern Europe’s defenses strengthened. The U.S. will remain the central player, but Rheinmetall’s rise signals growing European weight. Ukraine’s industrial expansion, meanwhile, could position it as both a security provider and an emerging exporter in the global arms market.
Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure