Ukraine’s Post-War Aviation: From Soviet Legacy to Next-Generation Aircraft

The destruction of Antonov’s flagship, the collapse of civilian aircraft production, and entire design bureaus forced into survival mode — at first glance, Ukraine’s aviation industry looks doomed. Yet beneath the ruins lie skills, people, and wartime innovations that could become the foundation of a post-war revival.

The full-scale war has destroyed a significant part of Ukraine’s aviation infrastructure – physically, economically, and institutionally. The destruction of the flagship of SE “Antonov,” the halt of civilian aircraft manufacturing, and the shift of several design bureaus into survival mode – all of this looks like a death sentence.

Yet, at the same time, the war has brought another truth to light: Ukraine still possesses critical competencies in the aviation sector – from design to maintenance, from upgrading old platforms to creating new unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The question is not whether Ukraine can build aircraft after the war. The question is what kind, for whom, with whom, and under what conditions.

What the Ukrainian Aviation Industry Was Like Before 2022: A Legacy Without a Future

Before the war, Ukraine’s aviation industry retained the Soviet engineering school and unique production capacities (especially in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia) but suffered from three chronic ailments: a lack of state orders, a lost market, and a broken model of cooperation with post-Soviet enterprises. The production of new aircraft was almost nonexistent; instead, the focus shifted to maintaining the fleet of An-26, An-32, and An-74 aircraft, modernizing Soviet models, and small-scale export projects.

However, the main resource was preserved – people. Ukrainian engineers, designers, and technicians with experience in civilian and military aviation remained in place or moved to Europe, retaining their expertise. It is human capital – not workshops or machinery – that is the primary factor in the potential revival of aviation manufacturing after the war.

War as a Catalyst for Transformation: From Giants to Agile Platforms

Instead of traditional large-scale aviation manufacturing, Ukraine has made a leap

 in unmanned and light aviation during the war years. Developments in FPV drones, kamikaze strike drones, reconnaissance drones, and experiments with tactical-class unmanned aerial systems have created a new ecosystem in which the pace of innovation significantly surpasses pre-war inertia.

This experience is critically important: the global war of the future is not only about fourth- and fifth-generation “warbirds” but also about swarms of UAVs, transport-logistics platforms, unmanned tiltrotors, relay aircraft, and real-time navigation solutions. This is where Ukraine has something many lack: experience in mass production under wartime conditions, deep adaptability to change, and a culture of “rapid cycles.”

Is the Restoration of Full-Fledged Aviation Manufacturing Possible—and What Will It Look Like?

Fantasies about quickly resuming production of the An-148 or An-178 should be left in the past. A realistic scenario involves abandoning a closed production cycle and betting on cooperation with international partners. This is not just about repairs and subcontracts but about designing new platforms together with NATO manufacturers. After the war, Ukraine will have a unique market: enormous demand for military transport, medical, logistics, and unmanned aviation. And with the right state policy, this opportunity can be turned into an export advantage.

The issue of localization will also be critical. Ukraine has a chance to attract manufacturers of components – engines, hydraulics, control systems – within new supply chains for Eastern European countries. This will be possible under two conditions: investor protection and a legal environment that enables rapid integration into defense-industrial cooperation with the EU and the US.

Military Aviation: What Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine Fly in the Next Decade?

After the war, the combat aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will almost entirely transit to Western technology – F-16s, possibly Gripens, or even Eurofighters. This means not only a change in the fleet but also a shift in focus from domestic production to maintenance, modernization, training, weapons adaptation, and the development of shared infrastructure. In this segment, Ukrainian aviation manufacturing should focus not on replicating models but on creating support systems: simulators, maintenance bases, interface elements, training programs, and R&D.

Nevertheless, nothing prevents Ukraine from developing its own line of light attack aircraft, unmanned fighters, or electronic warfare platforms. Here, the creation of national products is possible, especially in cooperation with Turkey, South Korea, or Poland – countries rapidly advancing toward the production of generation 4+ aircraft.

What Is Needed to Make This a Reality?

The primary resource is political will. Without state orders, coordination with allies, long-term programs, and funding, even the best designers will remain in the realm of minor repairs or leave the country for good. A systemic state strategy is needed: not the restoration of “Antonov” but the creation of an Agency for Air Defense Innovation to coordinate civilian-military aviation, hybrid platforms, unmanned systems, and cooperation with global players.

The restoration of education is also necessary: aviation departments, applied engineering, and aerodynamics laboratories. This is a long path, but it has already begun – dozens of startups created during the war show that the aviation culture in the country is alive.

Ukraine can and must build aircraft after the war. But not according to the patterns of the Soviet aviation industry or with illusions of “revival” – rather, as part of a new defense aviation landscape that is flexible, mobile, and integrated into the Western world. A world that not only provides aircraft but invites participation in their creation. If Ukraine seizes this window, it can not only fly – it can become a center of gravity for the entire Eastern European region in the sphere of next-generation military-civilian aviation.

Bohdan Popov, head of digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist, and public figure