US Aid Cuts to Ukraine Will Strengthen Russia, Not Bring Peace – ISW Warns
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that planned U.S. cuts to military aid for Ukraine in 2026 could embolden Russia and prolong the war, rather than push toward a peaceful settlement. The warning follows U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s June 10 statement confirming plans to scale back the Pentagon’s weapons budget for Ukraine, The Gaze reports.
While Hegseth said that “a negotiated, peaceful settlement” would benefit all sides, ISW argues that reducing support will neither lead to sustainable peace nor force Vladimir Putin to rethink his strategy, which depends on outlasting Ukraine’s defenses and the West’s political will. According to ISW, only continued large-scale U.S. support can enable decisive Ukrainian gains and pressure Putin into real negotiations.
The think tank warns that any signal of waning U.S. resolve could encourage more Russian aggression and directly undermine President Donald Trump’s stated goal of securing lasting peace in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to justify its war through historical revisionism. Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky claimed in The Wall Street Journal that the war is simply a conflict “between two brothers,” denying Ukraine’s independent identity — a narrative used to legitimize efforts to subjugate Ukraine and install a pro-Russian regime.
Russian lawmakers have also attempted to delegitimize President Zelenskyy by misrepresenting martial law provisions, despite Ukraine’s constitution clearly barring wartime elections.
At the same time, Russian officials are escalating anti-Western rhetoric. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and others have blamed NATO for prolonging the conflict, with some, like lawmaker Alexei Zhuravlev, even calling for additional missile strikes on Ukrainian territory.
As The Gaze previously reported, the Trump administration is set to reduce military aid to Ukraine in the upcoming defense budget, a move that could limit the delivery of critical air defense systems needed to counter Russia’s continued missile attacks.