Warsaw Aims for Leadership

Poland began its presidency of the Council of the European Union in January under extremely challenging circumstances. Its predecessor, Hungary, also faced similar difficulties: war on the EU’s doorstep, stiff competition with China, and the challenges of the green agenda. However, the situation now includes the threat of a tariff conflict between the US and the EU, as Donald Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on European imports. The distinction between Warsaw and Budapest is significant. Warsaw acknowledges the risk of a potential Russian invasion of Western Europe, while Budapest seeks to maintain warm relations with the Kremlin. The presidency of the Council does not mean that the presiding country assumes control. Instead, it focuses on coordinating and aligning positions. However, the pace and quality of the coordination across the 27 member states on key issues depend heavily on the presiding nation. These key issues include countering Russian hybrid and direct aggression, improving approaches to the “Green Transition,” and combating illegal migration.

Belgium held the presidency for the first half of 2024, followed by Hungary in the latter half. Poland will hold the position until 30 June 2025, after which Denmark will take over. Each EU member state holds the presidency once every 13 and a half years.

This role is far from ceremonial. It involves acting as an “honest broker” to moderate discussions on critical issues.

Poland’s Role as EU President

Like other countries in this position, Poland will act as an “honest broker.” Whenever new EU legislation needs to be discussed, the relevant ministers from all 27 member states convene in the Council. For example, when it comes to energy, the ministers of energy gather, chaired by the minister from the presiding country. In this case, Poland’s Minister for Climate and Environment, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, will lead the meetings, as her ministry oversees energy matters in Poland.

Under EU principles, the presidency must uphold four main values of the Alliance:

1. Upholding the EU agenda

2. Sound law-making

3. Cooperation among member states

4. Collaboration with other EU institutions

The presiding country must act as an impartial mediator, avoiding excessive promotion of national interests.

Fortunately, the EU seems to have struck gold with Poland as its Council president.

Warsaw’s stance on critical issues is rational, albeit sometimes more radical than those of Berlin or Paris. However, it aligns more closely with the positions of Rome or Helsinki.

Firstly, Warsaw takes a leading role in defence, allocating an unprecedented 4,12% of its GDP to defence spending – the highest among EU countries. Poland’s efforts to strengthen the EU’s defensive capabilities are likely to be applauded by Romania, Finland, the Baltic states, Sweden and the US, of course.

Poland’s approach to the pace of the “Green Transition” appears more pragmatic, prioritising the competitiveness of the European economy. Given that farmers hold significant political influence in Poland, the country’s environmental policies are shaped by the principle of “do no harm” to the agricultural sector. This perspective resonates with France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy.

On illegal migration, Warsaw has always adopted a much tougher stance than most EU nations. This position will win approval from Italy, Spain, Hungary, and others. Even Germany, with its traditionally moderate migration policies, is gradually shifting towards more defined and stringent positions.

Warsaw is an Ally to Budapest, But Not a Close Friend

On the occasion of its inauguration as the President of the Council of the EU, Warsaw notably did not invite Hungary’s ambassador to Poland or the country’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, to the ceremony on 3 January.

According to Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, Poland’s Deputy Minister for European Affairs, the decision stemmed from Hungary’s granting of asylum in December 2024 to Marcin Romanowski, a member of Poland’s former ruling party, Law and Justice, and a former Deputy Minister of Justice. Romanowski is currently under investigation in Poland on charges of misusing public funds.

Naturally, Warsaw was angered by this move from Budapest. Immediately after the announcement of Romanowski’s asylum, Poland labelled it a “hostile act” that contravenes the principles of the European Union. Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Hungarian ambassador to Warsaw and delivered an official note of protest.

However, the issue goes beyond this scandal involving the fugitive official. Warsaw takes a diametrically opposed stance to Budapest regarding Moscow’s actions. While Hungary’s long-serving Prime Minister Viktor Orbán openly holds pro-Russian and pro-Putin positions, successive Polish governments, regardless of their political composition, have demonstrated a firm commitment to defending their borders against the growing Russian threat.

Hungary’s OTP Bank, which maintains close ties with the state, continues to operate its subsidiary in Russia. This subsidiary is a significant player and a supporter of Putin’s regime. Orbán actively lobbies within the EU to maintain the supply of Russian oil and gas via pipelines. He even blocks some decisions of EU, demanding special exemptions to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas. As a result, the adoption of the 16th package of sanctions against Russia is being also delayed.

Moreover, Orbán courts Beijing, which is known to be a close partner of Moscow, supplying dual-use goods to Russia and offering diplomatic support.

This contrasts starkly with the Polish government’s active promotion of strengthening the EU’s defence capabilities and reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank. This flank, as is well known, includes the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Meanwhile, Slovakia and Hungary lean towards pursuing separate ties with Russia.

Indeed, Budapest has failed to fulfil its mission of acting as a neutral mediator in foreign policy matters. Instead, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has entered into a form of confrontation with Brussels, which was openly enraged by Orbán’s so-called “peace mission” and his unauthorised visits to Moscow and Beijing. Essentially, Orbán has undermined EU unity in the face of the Russian threat and created additional challenges for Ukraine, which serves as Europe’s frontier against Russian aggression.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who previously served as President of the European Council and led the centre-right European People’s Party, made a clear statement during Poland’s inauguration as the presiding nation of the Council of the EU:

“If Europe is powerless, it will not survive… Let us do everything to ensure that Europe and Poland do not have to pay the highest price for freedom, for strength, for sovereignty. Let us do everything to make Europe strong again.”

Tusk was supported by the President of the European Council, António Costa, who stated:

“This year, we must continue to support Ukraine – for as long as necessary, for as long as it takes to achieve a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace… To this end, we must continue to treat defence as a strategic priority for the European Union.”

Tusk indeed has strong and warm ties with the top leaders of EU countries and the EU establishment in Brussels. It appears that Poland’s presidency of the Council of the EU will compensate for the shortcomings of Hungary’s presidency in the previous six months.