From America First to America Alone: How Trump's Foreign Policy is Reshaping Global Alliances

Changes in US foreign policy under the presidency of Donald Trump have led to a significant weakening of trust among Washington's traditional allies. Unpredictable decisions on trade agreements, the cessation of military aid to partners, and criticism of existing alliances have led to geopolitical changes affecting global players’ security and economy. 

The main question is: will the “America First” policy lead to a transformation into “America Alone”?

Donald Trump is once again forcing the US allies to think about whether they can rely on Washington for security and economic partnership. His decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine was not just a surprise but a wake-up call for countries that have built their strategies on America's support for decades. 

While Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are concerned about China's rising influence and how to deal with it without US support, European allies are even more worried: they not only fear the weakening of US security guarantees but also risk being hit by US trade restrictions, like Canada, for example.

A New Stage of Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Trump administration has already made it clear in practice that it is returning to a policy of economic protectionism. New trade duties on steel and aluminum from Europe, the threat of tariffs on German cars, and potential restrictions on Japanese and Korean companies in the United States are all creating an atmosphere of instability for key allies. At the same time, China, observing this situation, is only strengthening its position by offering its “disappointed” American partners more attractive economic agreements and political dialogue without ultimatums.

In parallel, China and Russia are taking advantage of the weakening of transatlantic unity. Beijing is offering economically attractive alternatives to American influence, in particular through the One Belt, One Road initiative. Russia, on the other hand, continues its hybrid warfare, influencing political processes in Europe and actively using information campaigns to split societies.

Today, the problem for U.S. allies is not only Washington's refusal to support Ukraine and its desire to engage with Russia first—while portraying Ukraine as the side unwilling to end the war—but also its unpredictability. South Korea, which until a few years ago operated primarily within the framework of American interests, is now actively cooperating with Europe and expanding its military supplies. Canada, a traditionally reliable ally of the United States, recognizes that new tariffs and trade wars could harm its economy, forcing Ottawa to seek alternatives. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has even suggested that President Donald Trump's tariffs are designed to weaken Canada's economy, making it more vulnerable to U.S. influence.

Europe: Search for an Alternative Security Model

Recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron confirm a strategic shift in European security policy. Macron has emphasized that Europe can no longer rely on the United States for defense and must consider its own capabilities to ensure stability on the continent. “In this context, who can believe that Russia will stop at Ukraine?” he said in his historic address.

This address sent an important signal to European leaders, especially as Macron openly discussed the possibility of using France's nuclear deterrent to protect European allies. Previously, such issues had not been discussed publicly, indicating a profound change in the EU's strategic thinking.

At the summit in Brussels, EU leaders are already discussing plans for rearmament and the creation of a common defense fund. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the ReArm Europe initiative, which aims to increase defense spending and stimulate the production of military equipment within the EU. The leaders of the 27 EU states supported this idea and suggest that the EU Council urgently consider the possibility of attracting 150 billion euros in loans for defense procurement.

So Europe no longer hides its disappointment with Washington's policy. France and Germany are talking even more about strategic autonomy, expanding security cooperation without the United States. Poland and the Baltic states, which have traditionally relied on American guarantees, are forced to strengthen relations with other partners in order not to be left alone with the Russian threat.

Implications for Global Geopolitics

While Europe is looking for new security mechanisms, the United States faces the risk of losing global leadership. China and Russia are using the uncertainty in Washington's policy to strengthen their own positions. Chinese diplomacy is proposing new economic alliances, particularly in Latin America and Africa, while Russia is stepping up its military and intelligence operations in an effort to destabilize European democracies.

The US turn toward protectionism also complicates economic relations with traditional partners. The imposition of new tariffs on European and Asian goods has drawn sharp criticism from Canada, Germany, and Japan. In response, China has already imposed duties on American agricultural products and launched investigations into the activities of several American corporations.

Moreover, some US allies are considering reducing the amount of intelligence they share with Washington because of the Trump administration's conciliatory approach to Russia. According to NBC News, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and members of the Five Eyes Alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom) are discussing changing information-sharing protocols, fearing that critical data could be accidentally disclosed.

And while the US allies are trying to adapt to the new reality, China is rubbing its hands together. Beijing is well aware that the weakening of transatlantic unity and the decline of US influence in the Indo-Pacific region opens up new opportunities. Chinese diplomacy is already working to strengthen ties with Europe, and in Asia, Beijing is promoting its regional security initiative, which some countries may begin to perceive as an alternative to American patronage. For example, China's Special Envoy for European Affairs Lu She said he was “shocked” by the Trump administration's attitude toward European allies and emphasized that a peace agreement on Ukraine cannot be determined by the United States and Russia alone. He emphasized that European countries should be equal participants in the negotiations.

Thus, Trump's geopolitical effect is leading to a serious restructuring of the global order. If the America First policy continues its isolationist trend, the United States risks losing the trust of its allies and influence in the international arena. At the same time, Europe gets a unique chance to strengthen its strategic autonomy, while China and Russia can take advantage of the West's weakness to expand their influence.

Ihor Petrenko, an expert at the Kyiv-based United Ukraine Think Tank