Weather Demands Money

Extreme weather events are raging across Europe: wildfires are blazing in Portugal while floods submerge Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary simultaneously. But that’s not all—over the Pacific Ocean, a global weather phenomenon, La Niña, is forming, which is expected to influence global weather patterns until at least February 2025. Surprisingly, the impact of climate change on all these events remains questionable.

The scale of the floods in Central and Western Europe has prompted the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to announce that the European Union’s emergency funds will be made available to help countries affected by floods and fires, such as Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, the Czech Republic and Portugal.

On 24 September, the Polish government declared its readiness to spend approximately €6 billion to tackle the aftermath of the floods. Around 84% of this sum is expected to be compensated by the EU Solidarity Fund, referenced by von der Leyen.

However, the adverse weather isn’t limited to Central Europe. The UK’s "Check for Flooding" service has warned of flood risks, particularly in the River Nene basin, northwest of London.

Meanwhile, on the other side of Europe, wildfires have been raging in Portugal for a second consecutive week. The fires are so intense that smoke has reached Spain's western provinces. These fires are caused by a summer drought in the region. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, fires are raging around the capital, Kyiv, but for entirely different reasons.

Fires on peatlands, especially after dry summers, are common in northern Ukraine, including the Kyiv area. However, in August and September 2024, these fires have been exacerbated by nightly attacks from Russian drones and missiles. Kyiv’s air defences have successfully intercepted most of these threats, but the debris from the intercepted missiles and drones falls in forests and peatlands, sparking fires. By mid-September, the fires had become so widespread that Kyiv’s city authorities recommended residents stay indoors and keep windows closed.

It Has Been Worse

The most severe flood in Europe in the past 100 years occurred in August 2002, when a week of rain affected countries including the Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and even the usually dry Italy, Spain, Ukraine, and Russia. The 2002 floods claimed 232 lives and caused €27.7 billion in damage.

The flood primarily affected the basins of rivers such as the Vltava, Elbe, and Danube. Meteorologists believe that the two powerful low-pressure cyclones that caused the heavy rainfall in 2002 were the result of the global weather phenomenon El Niño (not to be confused with La Niña), which occurred earlier that year.

Floods Are Expensive

According to Bloomberg, insurance losses from the recent Central European floods are estimated to reach €3 billion. This figure only accounts for damages to insured properties, meaning the total economic losses are likely much higher.

Poland has experienced the heaviest rainfall, with four of the rainiest days in mid-September bringing the equivalent of six months’ worth of rainfall. The consequences could have been far worse, but after the devastating flood of 1997, the Polish government decided to build the Lower Racibórz flood storage reservoir on the Oder River.

The construction of this reservoir took nearly 10 years and cost approximately €500 million, with financial support from the European Union and the World Bank. Today, the reservoir covers around 26 square kilometres and can hold 185 million cubic metres of floodwater. The 2024 flood was a test for the system, which seems to have passed, much to the relief of the 800,000 residents of cities like Opole and Wrocław and their suburbs.

Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Commission will provide €500 million to help Portugal deal with the wildfire damage, while countries affected by the floods can expect €10 billion in aid from EU funds.

Poland is doing its best to save what can be salvaged, as not all cities are protected by flood defences. “We are fighting for, among others, Wrocław, Głogów, and Nowa Sól, but at the same time, we are preparing a brilliant Reconstruction Plus plan. Bridges, roads, hospitals, schools, homes, sports fields, and kindergartens will not only be rebuilt but will also be better and more modern than before the floods,” announced Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on X (formerly Twitter).

Radio Prague has reported that the flood damage in the Czech Republic, based on insured property claims, currently stands at approximately €800 million. Czech insurers estimate that this flood is the second-largest natural disaster since the founding of the Czech Republic in 1993. Only the August 2002 flood caused more damage—22 years ago, even the Prague metro was flooded.

In Austria, the peak of the rains occurred on 15 September. Over the course of five days, as Storm Boris raged, Austria received between two and five times the average monthly rainfall typically seen in September. Vienna coped fairly well, thanks to its robust flood protection system built 50 years ago. However, other regions fared worse, although the damage was still less than that caused by the 2002 floods, which resulted in losses of around €3 billion.

In the Slovakian capital of Bratislava, the Danube River rose nearly 10 metres, the highest level in 30 years. Although this year’s flood was smaller than the 2002 super-flood, some areas of the city were still inundated, suffering not only from water damage but also from landslides. In the western regions of Slovakia, along the Morava River, the situation was worse, with many towns and cities affected by flooding. Local officials have already criticised the Slovak government for its slow response in compensating those affected.

However, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, alongside Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, met with Ursula von der Leyen last week. Following this meeting, EU officials confirmed that at least €10 billion could be allocated from the EU Solidarity Fund and the Cohesion Fund to deal with the flood aftermath.

Photo: While one part of Europe is flooded, another suffers from fires. Smog from fires over Lisbon. Source: Getty Images

La Niña Approaches

This year, the Pacific Ocean is witnessing the formation of a global weather phenomenon known as La Niña. This climate event is expected to fully develop by November 2024 and may last until February or even March 2025.

In fact, there are two such phenomena that occur periodically over the Pacific Ocean. The opposite of La Niña (the "little girl") is El Niño (the "little boy"). La Niña leads to colder surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and creates high-pressure systems over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific, with lower pressure over much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. In contrast, El Niño warms the surface waters of the Pacific.

What does the Pacific Ocean have to do with Europe? These phenomena have a global impact, influencing weather patterns even in Europe. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the development of La Niña to assess its potential strength and duration.

Among all continents, Europe feels the least direct impact from El Niño/La Niña events. However, during La Niña periods, the air over the Atlantic tends to be drier, reducing the likelihood of strong, moist cyclones that bring rain to Europe. Nonetheless, La Niña's influence on Europe is still smaller than local factors, such as air flows from the Atlantic, Africa, Siberia, or the Arctic.

Interestingly, La Niña affects global markets as well, creating relatively favourable conditions for agriculture in North and South America, as well as in East Asia and Australia. This typically stabilises agricultural prices during La Niña years.