Western Sanctions Fuel Rapid Growth of Russia’s Shadow Oil Fleet

The shadow fleet of oil tankers continues to grow rapidly, as Western sanctions against Russia encourage the use of circumventing schemes to supply crude oil to international markets.

The Gaze reports on it, referring to Reuters.

Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim reported that the shadow fleet of oil tankers has expanded significantly since the introduction of Western sanctions.

“As there are more sanctions and restrictions, the size of the (shadow fleet) has grown even larger,” Rahim stated at the APPEC 2025 conference.

This fleet plays a key role in ensuring the supply of Russian crude oil to buyers, despite restrictions that limit Moscow's oil export revenues. Although the fleet's growth rate has slowed this year, it continues to expand as new vessels replace those on the sanctions lists.

Rahim also noted that recent US tariffs on oil have so far had a limited impact on the global economy and fuel demand.

“The key story with tariffs is that we actually haven't seen the impact yet on the demand side,” he said.

Due to companies' inventories prior to the introduction of tariffs, consumers have not yet felt the price increase, so the effect on demand will become apparent later.

In terms of production, manufacturers are forming their capital expenditure budgets based on an oil price of around $60 per barrel, which corresponds to the break-even level.

In the US, the number of drilling rigs has fallen by approximately 25%, and although the impact on production will be felt with a six- to eight-month delay, production is expected to plateau at current levels or potentially decline.

As The Gaze reported earlier, the European Union is preparing a fresh package of sanctions aimed at tightening the financial and energy noose on Moscow.