What are Putin's Goals in Prolonging the War?

More than three years Russia has been waging a full-scale war against Ukraine. Despite significant losses, failures on the frontline, and unprecedented sanctions, the Kremlin shows no real interest in ending the fighting. In this article, we delve into why it is still the case. 

If you ask Ukrainians, the war not only continues, but also takes on new forms: from escalation in the Kharkiv and Sumy area to diplomatic manipulations in the international arena.

One could say that Vladimir Putin pursues strategic, systemic goals, in which the war itself is not a mistake or a forced step, but a tool for achieving political, geopolitical and domestic goals.

The original goals of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022-the so-called “denazification,” “demilitarization,” and change of government in Kyiv-have not been revised.

Despite the failures in the first months of the war, the Kremlin has not abandoned the idea of getting the whole of Ukraine under control. On the contrary, these goals have evolved into an even more rigid form.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasize in their daily report of May 17, 2025 that Moscow continues to conduct offensive actions on several fronts, including the Kharkiv and Donetsk and Luhansk region, and abandons the idea of a peaceful settlement without territorial concessions from Kyiv. Putin seeks not only control over Donbas or Crimea, but over the entire political trajectory of Ukraine, either through the establishment of a loyal regime or constant military blackmail.

Russia's strategy does not involve compromise: in any negotiations, Moscow demands recognition of the annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, and its neutral status. This is unacceptable to Kyiv and destroys the very idea of international law.

Delaying the War as a long-term Strategy

One of the key tools that Putin possesses is time. Delaying the war allows him not only to create additional pressure on Ukraine, but also to split the Western coalition. The longer the war lasts, the more voices call for a “settlement” or “end of support for Kyiv.”

Putin is well aware of this and expects that sanctions fatigue, political changes in Western countries, and economic pressure will eventually do their job.

The delaying tactic allows Putin to gain time to mobilize reserves, adapt the economy to the sanctions, and re-establish the logistics of arms supplies. Russia is in no hurry because it knows that Ukraine is largely dependent on external support. And this support depends on a lot of external factors.

Russia views Donald Trump as playing a special role in these calculations

His rhetoric, which devalues the role of NATO, criticizes aid to Ukraine, and promotes the idea of a “quick peace” through negotiations with Putin, is perceived in the Kremlin as a sign of Western weakness.

In April 2025, Politico reported on a telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, during which the Russian dictator allegedly agreed to a limited ceasefire. But within an hour of this statement, Russian missiles again struck Ukrainian energy facilities, including Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih. This proved once again that no agreement with Putin is worthwhile without a real mechanism to enforce it.

The Kremlin perceives Trump's diplomatic activity not as an attempt to stop the war, but as an opportunity to influence the West and persuade Ukraine to make concessions. Putin is deploying a whole system of political manipulations aimed at achieving military goals through political and diplomatic means.

In general, the Trump situation shows fundamental differences in the understanding of the situation by Russian and American elites. Trump, offering negotiations to Putin, believes that he should be interested in their outcome, as it is a chance to earn considerable money for the Russian economy as a result of lifting or limiting anti-Russian sanctions. Accordingly, by making gestures of goodwill, Trump is extending his hand to Putin, which he should gladly grasp. However, for Putin, all these gestures of goodwill are just a sign of weakness, and therefore a signal to take more active action against the one who extends this hand.

Diplomacy is Like a Trap: Putin Senses Weakness

The Foreign Policy article points out that diplomatic initiatives by Trump or other leaders who advocate “compromise” only strengthen Putin's confidence that he can continue to exert pressure. The Russian regime is skillfully playing on Western fatigue, using the topic of negotiations not for de-escalation but for strategic deception. While the “peace initiatives” continue, Russia is regrouping, arming itself, and planning new offensives.

For the Kremlin, negotiations are not a mechanism for resolving the conflict, but part of a military campaign. Any pause at the front is used exclusively for military purposes. Therefore, the West's attempts to resolve the war through concessions only postpones its end, not brings it closer.

The war against Ukraine has become part of the internal legitimization of Putin's power. It mobilized Russian society, suppressed the remnants of the opposition, and strengthened the vertical of power. For decades, propaganda has shaped the image of the West as an enemy and Ukraine as a “traitor to the Russian world,” which means that any retreat from military goals will be perceived as a defeat.

Peace without victory is a challenge to Putin's legitimacy in the eyes of the security forces, oligarchs, and the “core people.” Ending the war without achievements makes all the sacrifices meaningless and destroys the logic of the state ideology. That is why even a partial de-escalation is impossible without an internal transformation of the Putin regime.

Putin does not aim only at a military victory; he wants to break down Ukrainian society, to impose fatigue, apathy, and doubt on it. Striking at the psyche, economy, and energy sector is part of his strategy.

The Kremlin's logic is that if you can't win on the battlefield, you can make Ukrainians lose faith in Western help, in their own army, in the meaning of resistance. To make this work, Russia launches waves of disinformation, conducts cyberattacks, and undermines the rear. Putin is not interested in an ending – he is interested in an endless process where the loser is not him, but his enemies.

Delaying the war is a key component of Putin's strategy; it is all part of a cold calculation. At the moment, Putin maintains his strategic goals, which include control over Ukraine.

He uses the ceasefire as a tool for deception and manipulation, perceives Western diplomacy as a sign of weakness rather than a challenge, and fears the end of the war as a direct threat to his regime. Additionally, he wages a war of attrition, focusing on weakening the rear rather than engaging directly at the front.

Therefore, any offer of “peace” without real deterrence of the Kremlin and without preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity is not peace, but a new phase of war. And the sooner Ukraine's allies realize this, the lower the price of victory will be.

Petro Oleshchuk, political scientist, Ph.D, expert at the United Ukraine Think Tank