What Awaits Ukraine and the World After Putin Era

There are three possible scenarios for Russia's development after the end of Vladimir Putin's era.

The Gaze reports on it, referring to the article “Post-Putin Russia: What Awaits Ukraine and the World”.

The first scenario involves the preservation of authoritarianism, the so-called ‘Venezuelan scenario’. In this case, power passes to a representative of the current elite who continues the policy of dictatorship, imperial ambitions and confrontation with the West. The war against Ukraine is likely to continue, although it may be frozen. Russia will remain aggressive but economically weak.

Scenario number two is partial liberalisation (‘New Perestroika’). It envisages a more pragmatic successor coming to power who tries to normalise relations with the West. There may be a cessation of active warfare and a withdrawal of troops from some of the occupied territories of Ukraine, but without a final resolution of the Crimea issue and without genuine democratisation. This scenario, despite the apparent ‘respite’, could be dangerous as it creates the illusion of a ‘normal Russia’ without changing its imperial essence.

Finally, there is the scenario of destabilisation and collapse: internal problems and defeats lead to an uncontrollable crisis that could cause Russia to break up into separate states. Although this would be a historic victory for Ukraine, Western experts consider this scenario the most dangerous due to the risk of uncontrolled proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

In any scenario, Russia is unlikely to cease to be a threat. Even in the event of liberalisation, imperialist sentiments and a large military arsenal will remain. It is therefore important for Ukraine to prepare for a prolonged confrontation, strengthen its state and continue its integration into NATO and the EU, without harbouring any illusions about future changes in Russia.

Read more: Post-Putin Russia: What Awaits Ukraine and the World