Ahead of the Elections in Slovakia, the Pro-Russian Party Lost Leadership Position for the First Time

Ahead of the upcoming elections in Slovakia on September 30, the opposition party Smer-SD, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, which opposes arms deliveries to Ukraine, has lost its lead in the polls for the first time. 

This shift was reported by Aktuality, citing the results of a survey conducted by the NMS Market Research agency.

Just days before the elections, the survey indicates that the political movement "Progressive Slovakia" could secure victory.

Smer-SD, known for its anti-Ukrainian statements, had been in the lead for an extended period. Its leader, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, seeks a return to power, promising to defend national interests, halt military support to Ukraine, and opposes any sanctions against Russia that could harm Slovakia.

"Progressive Slovakia" is currently enjoying support from 19.7% of respondents, while Smer-SD lags slightly behind with 19.4%. In third place is the "Hlas" ("Voice") party with 10.5% support.

The coalition of OĽaNO, "For the People," and the Christian Union, with 9.5% support, which requires a minimum of 7% to enter the National Council, would also make it into the parliament.

Following them are "Republika" (8.5%), SaS (5.7%), SNS (5.4%), KDH (5.4%), and "We Are Family" (5.2%).

The rest of the parties have not come close to crossing the electoral threshold.

The topic of the Russian war in Ukraine is one of the key issues in the Slovak election campaign. Currently, at least three political forces that openly espouse anti-Ukrainian slogans have a chance to enter parliament.

First and foremost is the Smer-SD party, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico. It was leading in the polls until recently, with the latest surveys giving it 19.4% of the vote.

Fico has never been a pro-Ukraine politician, but during his previous prime ministership, he concluded a significant gas deal with Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to receive reverse gas supplies. However, in the months leading up to the elections, Fico's rhetoric regarding Ukraine has significantly changed.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fico has opposed providing arms to Ukraine, including his objections to supplying S-300 air defense systems. He also threatened criminal prosecution of the previous government for the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

In recent weeks, Fico has begun speaking about Ukraine using rhetoric directly from Russian playbooks, including claiming that "Nazism is tolerated" in Ukraine.

For Fico, it is crucial to secure a place in the coalition of the new parliament, as this may protect him from legal prosecution. If Fico wins and forms his government, Slovakia's policy could become similar to that of Hungary. However, replicating Viktor Orban's course will be challenging. Fico's party will not have an absolute majority and will be forced to consider the demands of allies.