Can the U.S. Win the Tech War Against China Without Its Allies?
The U.S. once believed that cutting China off from advanced technologies would shift the global balance of power. But the tech war has proven far more complex, and the United States no longer holds all the levers.
According to Ihor Petrenko, founder of the United Ukraine think tank and Doctor of Political Sciences in his article for The Gaze, the conflict over microchips and AI is not just economic. “It’s about who gets to shape the future,” he writes.
Petrenko also argues that technological leadership determines military dominance, cybersecurity capacity, and the power to influence public opinion.
This explains why Washington launched sweeping export restrictions in 2022, cutting China off from state-of-the-art chips and machinery – crucial components for AI, cyber weapons, and automated warfare.
Yet even as U.S. companies retreated from the Chinese market, many allies refused to fully comply.
“The semiconductor supply chain is global,” Petrenko notes, and the U.S. can’t police it alone.
Despite forming the so-called Chip 4 Alliance with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the U.S. has struggled to maintain unified restrictions.
The Netherlands’ ASML, which makes the world’s most advanced lithography machines, continues limited exports to China.
Tokyo Electron of Japan still services Chinese clients. Even South Korea, a close military ally, walks a fine line due to its deep business ties with Beijing.
Meanwhile, many EU nations, wary of economic retaliation, have stopped short of banning companies like Huawei outright.
In addition, countries in the Global South, including India and Brazil, often see China as a counterweight to U.S. power, not a threat.
So Petrenko outlines three potential futures for this tech war:
1. The U.S. acts alone, maximizing pressure but accelerating global fragmentation. China adapts, and allies drift away.
2. The current model – slow, inconsistent, but somewhat effective. Beijing buys time, and Washington struggles to maintain momentum.
3. The ideal scenario, where democracies coordinate tightly to deny China tech dominance, but it demands unity that remains elusive amid diverging national interests.
In Petrenko’s view, the question isn’t just whether the U.S. can slow China down, it’s whether it can still lead a coalition capable of shaping the digital future.
“Technological dominance without diplomatic cohesion is an illusion,” he concludes. “If the U.S. puts pressure on its allies in Asia, while at the same time showing fatigue in supporting Ukraine, it sends a dangerous signal of inconsistency in American policy.”
Read more on The Gaze: Can America Contain China’s Tech Rise Alone?