Erdogan Takes a High-Stakes Gamble Amid Anniversaries
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will bring his message from the Global South to the Global North on November 17 during his visit to Germany. No more, no less. At least, that's what he fairly transparently indicated during a meeting with Turkish journalists on November 12. By doing so, Erdogan openly declared the final sprint in the race for the status of a regional superpower. In fact, the matter has been brewing for at least the last 7 years, since he sought to act as a mediator in resolving the Syrian crisis.
On the Joint Islamic-Arab Summit in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh on November 11, where leaders gathered to urge Israel to cease military operations in Gaza, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an international peace conference. The aim is to find a lasting resolution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, addressing an issue that has plagued the Middle East for at least the past 55 years.
The following day, on November 12, Erdogan was back in Turkey, meeting with a group of close journalists to present his vision for the future. It was a rather forceful and concise address, powerful and ambitious. The easiest way to explore it is through tweets on his own Erdoğan Digital Media account. So, in his words (in abbreviated form):
"Here is text containing many actions never before voiced, creating a geostrategy."
"I see Hamas as a political party that won elections in Palestine."
"Hamas is not a terrorist organization. On the contrary, these are people fighting to defend their land, protect themselves, and fight for their homeland."
"Turkey is a key country for resolving crises and problems in the region. The ability to communicate with all countries in our geography; Turkey is the only country that can bring conflicting and warring parties to the same table."
"Our region must immediately get rid of countries that have come tens of thousands of kilometers and want to take power here."
"On November 17, we have a visit to Germany. We will have some messages for the West during this visit to Germany."
"The system of permanent membership and veto power in the UN must be changed. The future of the world and people's lives cannot be left to the mercy of 5 countries with veto power."
"Israel has lost the support of the international community due to recent attacks on Gaza."
"Gaza is the land of the Palestinian people. America must accept this."
"We aspire to a Turkish world that promotes peace and stability and plays a leading role in solving global problems."
As we can see, the Turkish President, after winning this year's intense presidential race, is steadfastly building his position in the ever-changing modern world. He still leverages his role as one of the leaders of NATO but actively enhances the Islamic component of his influence.
The victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the presidential elections in May 2023 not only allowed him to retain his position but also marked the beginning of a new round in the struggle for increased influence. Now, it's not just about the scale of the country but global influence on the surrounding world. Erdogan next year marks the 10th anniversary of his presidency, preceded by 11 years of prime ministership. He is an experienced and cynical politician who manages to achieve his goals. It is quite evident that even 100 years after the proclamation of the Turkish Republic, the legacy of the Ottoman Empire influences the modus operandi of Turkey's leader.
Russia Is Not Entirely an Ally
Note that Erdogan's actions in recent months have been, at least, multi-vector. After the collapse of the grain deal in July 2023, where Turkey and the UN acted as co-sponsors and guarantors, Recep Erdogan tried to revive it, but without much success. The leaders of Russia and Turkey launched the construction of the Akkuyu NPP in a video conference format, and Erdogan even visited Putin in Sochi, trying to achieve the revival of the grain deal, but he couldn't convince the Kremlin's vis-a-vis.
Russian and Turkish presidents, in their behavior, resemble each other down to the details, demonstrating a geopolitical macho style to the surrounding world with varying success.
However, Turkey remains not only a gateway for Russian grain exports to the countries of the Persian Gulf and Africa but also a channel for the supply of sanctioned products needed by the Russian defense industry. At the same time, Erdogan refuses to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and continues to implement plans for the construction of the Bayraktar drone factory in Ukraine. The appointment of the Crimean Tatar Rustem Umerov as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine has given Ankara an additional argument for developing relations with Kyiv. However, a return to the "Quadriga" format in the Ukrainian-Turkish intergovernmental dialogue has not yet occurred. By "Quadriga," we mean political-security consultations in a 2+2 format involving the ministers of foreign affairs and defense of Ukraine and Turkey. The agreement on such consultations was reached following the working visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Turkey on October 16, 2020. On December 18 of the same year, the first such meeting took place in Kyiv in the new format. However, the transition to annual meetings in the "Quadriga" format has not been successful.
Quarrels with Washington
As known, the relations between the US and Turkey haven't been particularly warm lately. But those were relatively constructive.
Washington isn't too fond of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions and demeanor. On its part, Ankara is seeking to secure a contract for the supply of F-16 fighters, using Sweden's NATO accession as leverage. In the Scandinavian country, a series of provocative public acts, including the burning of the Quran, were interpreted by Erdogan as a signal to intensify the Islamic component of his diplomacy.
Position by the Doorstep
At the same time, Ankara faces criticism from the European Union as a whole. The EU has been dragging its feet on Turkey's accession for several decades. This is beginning to look like an indecently prolonged candidacy term and a somewhat offensive form of indirect rejection. In 2024, it will be 25 years since Turkey became a candidate for EU membership, but in recent years, the negotiating process has stalled. In this context, Brussels' call to Bosnia and Herzegovina to expedite the Eurointegration process is unlikely to find a response due to Ankara's influence on the Muslim community in this Balkan country.
Perhaps the process has been prolonged because Turkey was too brisk and successful in bargaining with the EU regarding the transit of migrants from Syria in 2015-2016? Brussels isn't complaining about a lack of memory.
PHOTO: 19 years ago, Recep Erdogan took a big step into high politics. Source: Twitter (now X) Erdoğan Digital Media
Contender for Supremacy
Recep Tayyip Erdogan perceived the Hamas attack on Israel as a signal to strengthen the Islamic vector of his policy. He demonstrated solidarity with Hamas and quickly shifted from the desire to reconcile the world and Israel to declaring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unacceptable for Middle East settlement talks. In this case, Erdogan is practically not taking any risks, as Netanyahu's positions after October 7, 2023, are extremely shaky, and only the continuation of hostilities saves him from a disgraceful resignation.
On the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of the Turkish Republic, Erdogan participated in a massive rally in support of Palestine. In this way, he signals to the countries of the Persian Gulf his readiness to play a more active role in the resolution, rhetorically attacking Israel. Erdogan deliberately calls Gaza Palestinian territory, realizing that such statements, combined with criticism of the US position on the situation in the Middle East, will attract attention to him.
The answer to the question of why Erdogan's position has split is quite simple: he perceives the turbulence on Turkey's borders as an opportunity to transform from the leader of a regional state into one of the world leaders capable of being a player for both the West and the global South. The task is not an easy one, but the result may allow the President of Turkey to look more confidently at the prospects for the end of his term. It seems like his bet lies in using the principle of "the worse, the better," amid disrupting the existing world order, and demonstrating a strong hand within the country. And this bet might pay off.