Exercise “West-2025” as a Risk of Provocations Against Eastern European Countries

The large-scale Russian–Belarusian exercise “West-2025” has already begun, heightening the risk of hybrid provocations and forcing NATO and its partners to strengthen regional security.

A Large-Scale Rehearsal or a Theater for Pressure: What is “West-2025”?

In September 2025, the strategic command-and-staff exercise “West-2025” is taking place on the territory of Belarus — a joint operation of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, which, despite claims of “de-escalation,” is already causing alarm in Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The history of such exercises shows that they do not necessarily end with a salute on the training ground. This was the case in 2008 — before the war against Georgia. This was the case in 2021 — before the invasion of Ukraine. Now, it is time for a new act of hybrid demonstration of force, prepared against the backdrop of Trump’s diplomatic ultimatum and the Kremlin’s attempts to find alternative ways to influence the West.

Despite official statements from Minsk about reducing the number of troops and moving the main part of the maneuvers deeper into the country, the arrival of the first echelons of Russian troops and equipment has already been recorded. Several phases of the drills—particularly the transfer of engineering and rear units—actually started back in July, and as of mid-September the active stage of “West-2025” is already under way. According to open sources, at least two motorized rifle battalions, aviation, and logistical elements are involved.

At the same time, there is an imitation of a “de-escalatory” tone: Lukashenko has allegedly agreed to reduce the scale of the exercise, but at the same time retains the ability to suddenly redeploy troops closer to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. Under the official narrative of “repelling an attack by external forces,” the Kremlin and Minsk maintain room for maneuver — from psychological pressure to staged border provocations.

The Suwałki Corridor – The Main Risk Point for NATO

In the scenario analysis of “West-2025,” the most sensitive area remains the Suwałki Corridor — a narrow 65-kilometer strip of land between Poland and Lithuania that connects Kaliningrad with Belarus. Its capture in a hypothetical offensive would allow Russia to cut off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO by land. This is the weakest point of the Alliance’s eastern flank, and it increasingly appears in Russian training scenarios.

The “West-2025” exercise may include a scaled-down version of this scenario — practicing the logistics of force redeployment, rapid maneuvers in border zones, and the use of hybrid tools (sabotage, drones, information attacks). Military experts suggest that one of the tasks will be to model a low-intensity conflict that does not formally cross the “threshold” of NATO’s Article 5 but creates division and destabilization.

NATO’s Parallel Response – A Deterrence Attempt, But Not a Guarantee

The Alliance is not standing idly by. In response to “West-2025,” NATO countries are conducting large-scale exercises, “Defender Europe 2025,” involving American, Polish, Romanian, and Baltic contingents. However, there is a problem in this parity: the West is training for defense, while Russia is training for attack or provocations.

Moreover, NATO has no right to a full-fledged naval presence in the Black Sea due to the Montreux Convention, and in Belarus, Russia effectively controls aviation and missile infrastructure. In the event of escalation on land, the Alliance would be forced to react after the fact — which is precisely the Kremlin’s strategic advantage.

Political Pressure and Kellogg’s Visit: A “Pause” or a Smoke Screen?

Against the backdrop of the exercise, a visit by Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy, to Minsk took place. Statements about readiness to “shift the scenario to a de-escalation mode” coincided with reports of a possible redeployment of Belarusian units closer to NATO borders. This is a classic Kremlin hybrid diplomacy scheme: on one flank — peacekeeping signals, on the other — a demonstration of force.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense’s statements about the “peaceful nature of the exercise” do not eliminate the risk. On the contrary, examples from previous years demonstrate that it is precisely under the umbrella of exercises that Moscow prepares scenarios for sudden escalation. Even if a full-scale invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory is unlikely today, localized provocations — against Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania — could become a tool of pressure in negotiations with Washington.

Why a New Regional Security System is Needed Now

The situation surrounding “West-2025” is a signal for NATO: simply deploying additional units or holding routine exercises does not guarantee deterrence of the Kremlin. A new regional security system is needed, in which the Baltic states and Poland receive a permanent presence of allied troops, Ukraine is integrated into a joint air and missile defense system, intelligence and advanced observation posts are established on the Belarusian front, and diplomatic policy provides an immediate public response to every attempt at intimidation by Russia or its satellites.

This is not just about defending territories. It is about defending predictability. If a systemic response to Russian exercises is not created, every subsequent “West” could turn into the start of a new phase of hybrid warfare.

A Rehearsal of a Threat is No Less Dangerous Than the Threat Itself

“West-2025” is not just another training exercise. It is a multifaceted demonstration: Russia is capable of keeping Europe on edge even while losing 1,000 soldiers a day. This is a psychological and tactical war that the Kremlin is waging proactively. And that is precisely why the response from NATO, Eastern European countries, and Ukraine must also be proactive. Because if we do not dictate the rules of the game now, the Kremlin will write them for us.

Igor Popov, head of United Ukraine Think Tank, expert on political and security issues