Europe Developing Plan to Replace US in NATO Within 5–10 Years
Europe's most powerful military powers are working on a plan to reduce their dependence on US defence over the next five to ten years. The Financial Times reports this with reference to four informed European officials.
According to the article, this refers to a proposal by the administration of US President Donald Trump to transfer these responsibilities to European states over the next five to ten years.
The discussion is aimed at preventing possible chaos in the event of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, which has become a matter of concern due to Trump's repeated statements about weakening or withdrawing from the transatlantic alliance, which has been protecting Europe for almost eighty years.
According to four sources, these informal but structured talks involve the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Nordic countries.
Their goal is to develop a mechanism for transferring financial and military burdens to European countries and present it to the United States before the annual NATO leaders' summit in The Hague in June.
The plan is expected to contain specific commitments to increase defence spending in Europe and expand military capabilities to persuade Trump to agree to a gradual transfer of responsibilities, allowing the US to focus on Asia.
In addition to the nuclear deterrent that protects Europe with several European air forces that carry US nuclear weapons, the US provides military capabilities that continental allies do not, operating air, naval and military bases and maintaining 80,000 troops in Europe.
Officials estimate that it would take 5 to 10 years of intensive defence spending to reach a level that would offset most US military capabilities (with the exception of nuclear deterrence).
‘Increasing spending is the only possible strategy: sharing the burden and reducing dependence on the US. We have started these talks, but the scale of the task is so large that many feel overwhelmed,’ said one official.
While US diplomats have reassured European allies that Trump remains committed to NATO membership and its Fifth Article on collective defence, European capitals fear that Washington could quickly reduce its military presence or reduce participation in the alliance's common tasks.
‘You need to reach an agreement with the Americans, but it is not clear whether they will even want to. Can they be trusted to stick to the agreement?’ said another official.
Sources also pointed to regular talks between France and the UK on the creation of a ‘coalition of the resolute’ as a signal of strategic direction.
When asked about the possibility of a European pivot in NATO, one official said: ‘We see it happening. We are seeing it happening right now: The UK and France are taking the lead [on reassurance forces for Ukraine] without the US’.
The so-called ‘coalition of the resolute’, which lays the groundwork for a future post-war settlement, met in early March in London. In addition, on 15 March, senior military officers of the coalition gathered at the British military headquarters on the outskirts of London to discuss plans for the possible deployment of international forces in Ukraine.
As The Gaze reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with NBC News in February that NATO is the cheapest security guarantee for Europe, the United States, and Ukraine.