Global Nuclear Safety – How to Prevent Disasters in the Digital Age

Global nuclear safety is more urgent than ever, especially in the digital age, where new tech and geopolitical tensions add more risks. Ukraine's decision to give up nuclear weapons in 1994, under the Budapest Memorandum, seems increasingly questionable given the ongoing war with Russia that escalated in 2014 and fully erupted in 2022. 

This crisis challenges the effectiveness of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, erodes trust in international security guarantees, and may lead other nations to reconsider their stance on nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the rise of modern technologies, including AI, only makes the situation more dangerous, with the potential to rapidly develop portable nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian Lesson: Rethinking Nuclear Disarmament after Russia’s 2022 invasion

Today, the basis of global efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which was opened for signature in 1968 and entered into force in 1970. As of April 2025, it unites 191 states parties, making it the most universal treaty in this area.

The NPT has three key goals:

1) preventing the spread of nuclear weapons;

2) promoting the peaceful uses of nuclear energy;

3) advancing nuclear disarmament.

Despite the success of the NPT, there are still insurmountable challenges that endanger all countries of the world without exception, as the use of nuclear weapons poses a global, not a local, threat to humanity as a whole. For example, countries such as Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea continue to jeopardize the nonproliferation regime through their nuclear programs. Experts point out that due to the limited progress in nuclear disarmament, where five nuclear powers (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France) still have 13,400 warheads in their combined arsenals, it makes no sense to talk about the success of nuclear disarmament programs.

New technologies, such as artificial intelligence, cyber technologies, and the Internet of Things, introduce new risks to nuclear safety. Studies show that nuclear facilities are becoming increasingly dependent on digital systems, making them vulnerable to cyberattacks. For example, the IAEA experts note that the use of innovative digital technologies in new reactors, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), creates new challenges for nuclear security as more countries gain access to producing their own nuclear weapons.

Lessons from the Ukrainian Case of Nuclear Disarmament

Ukraine gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world in 1994, having received from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia through the Budapest Memorandum some unclear and non-binding promises to “hold consultations if something happens” instead of security guarantees. As a result, starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and started the war against Ukraine, which is still ongoing, consultations have not started, as one of the “guarantor” countries initiated the war against Ukraine because it was sure that our country had no possibility to respond to the armed aggression by using nuclear weapons on the territory of the aggressor country.

This raises several key questions for all countries that have “safeguards” and do not have their own nuclear weapons.

Non-fulfillment of safeguards. The Budapest Memorandum, which provided for respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, did not provide adequate protection. This undermines the credibility of international security agreements, as noted in the studies.

An incentive to develop and produce nuclear weapons. Other countries that have or may have nuclear weapons are already considering this case as a reason to maintain their nuclear arsenals or even expand them. For example, Japan or South Korea have rethought their position on nuclear weapons, seeing that giving them up does not guarantee security, especially in the face of a threat from the DPRK or China.

Impact on the NPT. The case of Ukraine may weaken the nonproliferation regime, as it demonstrates that security “guarantees” are not just insufficient, but illusory. This encourages countries that feel threatened to develop their own nuclear programs, which contradicts the goals of the NPT.

How Ukraine's Nuclear Disarmament Highlights Global Security Gaps

In order to prevent situations like the one in Ukraine and ensure the stability of the nonproliferation regime, the following steps are needed:

strengthening security guarantees, in particular through the mandatory use of NATO or other military alliances to protect such countries, for example, through membership expansion or bilateral agreements;

creating mechanisms for automatic response to aggression against non-nuclear-weapon states, possibly through sanctions or UN peacekeeping operations;

increasing the role of the UN in ensuring security

In addition, economic incentives, rather than military ones, can be used. For example, countries that abandon nuclear weapons should receive economic benefits, such as simplified access to peaceful nuclear energy technologies or financial assistance for development.

Digital Age Challenges to Nuclear Security

The digital age introduces new risks to nuclear security that need to be addressed.

Cyber threats. As nuclear facilities become increasingly dependent on digital systems, they are vulnerable to cyber attacks.

Use of the Internet of Things. Let me remind you that the Internet of Things is a complex system that contains various technologies and components to ensure data exchange between devices. This creates additional entry points at nuclear facilities for hackers.

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI can be used both to create more sophisticated cyberattacks on nuclear facilities and to develop new types of nuclear weapons.

Disinformation and IPSO. In the digital era, disinformation and IPSO will be used to destabilize nuclear safety, for example, through fake reports of nuclear accidents, which can cause panic among the population and managerial chaos in the public administration system.

To counter these threats, new international security standards for nuclear facilities are needed to ensure the protection of digital systems, continuous monitoring of cyber threats and rapid response to attacks (this requires cooperation between countries), as well as regular exchange of information on cyber threats through the IAEA and other platforms.

Technological Threats Compounding the Nuclear Security Crisis

Ukraine's situation is a powerful reminder of the risks involved in giving up nuclear weapons without strong safety guarantees. It's clear that this can be a dangerous and reckless decision. And in today's digital world, the problem is made even worse by new tech-related threats. To avoid disasters and strengthen global nuclear security, we need to take a more holistic approach—one that considers both geopolitical tensions and technological risks to ensure long-term safety.

Anton Kuchukhidze, political scientist and foreign policy analyst, expert at the “United Ukraine” Think Tank