Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament Highlights Global Security Risks in Digital Age

Ukraine’s 1994 nuclear disarmament—once hailed as a success story—has become a cautionary tale in today’s digital and volatile geopolitical environment, argues political scientist and foreign policy analyst Anton Kuchukhidze in a new piece for The Gaze.

Kuchukhidze emphasizes that Ukraine’s surrender of the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances now appears dangerously naïve in hindsight, particularly as Russia—the very guarantor of those commitments—invaded Ukraine in 2014 and escalated to full-scale war in 2022.

“Ukraine gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world in 1994, having received from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia through the Budapest Memorandum some unclear and non-binding promises to ‘hold consultations if something happens’ instead of security guarantees,” Kuchukhidze writes.

“As a result, starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and started the war against Ukraine, which is still ongoing, consultations have not started, as one of the ‘guarantor’ countries initiated the war against Ukraine because it was sure that our country had no possibility to respond to the armed aggression by using nuclear weapons on the territory of the aggressor country.”

This breakdown, he argues, sets a dangerous precedent that may prompt other nations to reconsider non-proliferation commitments.

“This raises several key questions for all countries that have ‘safeguards’ and do not have their own nuclear weapons,” he notes.

“The Budapest Memorandum… did not provide adequate protection. This undermines the credibility of international security agreements, as noted in the studies.”

Kuchukhidze also warns of new, non-traditional threats. The rise of AI, cyber technologies, and the Internet of Things (IoT) makes nuclear systems increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. 

Even small modular reactors (SMRs), promoted as next-generation energy sources, introduce risks due to digital dependencies.

“AI can be used both to create more sophisticated cyberattacks on nuclear facilities and to develop new types of nuclear weapons,” he writes.

“To avoid disasters and strengthen global nuclear security, we need to take a more holistic approach—one that considers both geopolitical tensions and technological risks,”  Kuchukhidze urges.

Read the full article by Anton Kuchukhidze on The Gaze: Global Nuclear Safety – How to Prevent Disasters in the Digital Age