Europe Shifts in Migration Policy

A few strong statements on illegal migration and one tough decision on border control signal that EU countries and the UK are returning to more rational approaches. While some consider these views somewhat selfish, the crisis of unwanted migration is a real issue in Europe. This problem was a key topic for many parties during the European Parliament elections this June and will also be at the centre of attention during the German Bundestag elections in September next year. It’s likely that European governments will begin to take a more selective approach to migrant flows and scrutinise their social programmes more closely. It’s also highly likely that officials have finally recognised uncontrolled mass migration as one of the tools in the hybrid warfare waged against the EU by the regime of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, at least since 2015.

In mid-September, Germany reinstated border controls with neighbouring countries, despite such controls not being standard practice within the EU. This occurred on 16 September, when the German government reintroduced temporary border checks, including at the borders with France and the Netherlands. Berlin explained this as a necessity in the fight against illegal migration and cross-border crime. However, this is not the first such measure. Previously, additional border controls were implemented with Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland.

The coalition government, which will lead Germany until the elections in autumn 2025, is nicknamed the "traffic light" due to the party colours of its members, and is considered centre-left. As such, it was expected to tolerate migration. But the fact remains: there has been a surge in arrivals from the Middle East and Africa, and there is growing frustration among the local population about migrant communities created by those who do not want to integrate into society. Likewise, voters are irritated by the high social costs associated with these migrants. As a result, there is growing support in German society for the opposition’s far-right and conservative factions.

The issue stems from the EU’s Dublin rules on migrants, which require asylum applications to be processed in the first EU country the applicant arrives in. Germany is usually not this first country, so these control measures seem aimed at identifying asylum seekers coming from neighbouring EU countries.

A more equitable distribution of the burden of accepting asylum seekers has been a point of contention among EU governments since at least 2015, when Europe faced an influx of refugees from the Middle East. Back then, Putin used a refugee wave from Syria, provoked by his regime, as part of a hybrid attack on NATO countries. In 2010, the number of asylum applications to Schengen area countries was 260,000, rising to 627,000 in 2014. In 2015, due to the war in Syria, the number of applications surged to 1.323 million, dropping slightly to 1.261 million in 2016. After that, the number of asylum applications somewhat decreased.

Not All Migrants Are the Same

Amid the war Russia started in Ukraine, the number of asylum applications rose to 962,000 in 2022 from 634,000 in 2021, and to 1.14 million in 2023. However, this increase is largely not a result of the war in Ukraine. The vast majority of Ukrainians who sought refuge from Russian forces in Western Europe did not apply for asylum. They are mostly residing in EU countries under temporary protection, which grants broader rights such as residency permits, access to the labour market and housing, medical care, and education for children. Crucially, these rights are immediately granted to all Ukrainian citizens who apply for them, whereas asylum applications for permanent residency are reviewed on an individual basis.

The status of temporary protection indicates that the Ukrainian citizen intends to return home eventually. More importantly, the 4.3 million people currently residing in EU countries under temporary protection are mostly women, children, and the elderly.

Nearly all Ukrainian children attend local schools, and working-age individuals with temporary protection status are seeking and finding jobs or working remotely for Ukrainian companies. Their presence in the EU is more likely to increase GDP and government tax revenues. For example, in relatively small Lithuania, Ukrainians paid €65.2 million in taxes in the first seven months of 2024, a 25% increase compared to the same period last year. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainians in Lithuania have paid €205 million in taxes.

In Poland, which probably hosts the largest number of Ukrainians under temporary protection (around one million people), the employment rate among working-age Ukrainians has exceeded 80%. By the end of 2023, the taxes paid by Ukrainians in Poland exceeded €4 billion, significantly more than the cost of social support provided by the Polish government. No wonder many EU countries are encouraging Ukrainian citizens to consider staying permanently. So much so that in Kyiv, discussions have begun about creating a ministry for the return of Ukrainians.

Photo: Far-right Giorgia Meloni and Labour’s Keir Starmer found common ground in combating illegal migration. Source: Giorgia Meloni X (formerly Twitter)

But Migration Will Be Limited

Ukrainian citizens fleeing the war are, in a sense, an exception in the larger migration flow. Overall, the situation now seems to be that European governments are deeply concerned about illegal migration from people who are unwilling to integrate into society and ignore European values.

This has certain political consequences – right-wing, far-right, and conservative parties are gaining popularity in elections.

In France, Michel Barnier, who was appointed Prime Minister in September, has already announced that the priorities of his government will be education, security, and immigration control. He will surely find a grateful partner in British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who, despite representing the Labour Party, is deeply concerned about the issue of illegal migration.

Starmer has also found common ground with the far-right leader of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, who warmly welcomed him in Rome on 16 September. Starmer's talks with Meloni are part of his plan to improve the UK’s relations with the European Union, with the focus of this visit being agreements on combating illegal migration and extraditing illegal migrants. Meloni takes an uncompromisingly hard line on illegal migration, believing that the UK and Italy must fight these illegal flows because it is "…a phenomenon that affects the entire European continent."

“We paid special attention to the fight against illegal immigration, committing to intensify cooperation in combating smuggling and human trafficking, focusing on the judicial dimension and partnership with countries of origin and transit. We will continue to cooperate under the Rome Process, including assisting with voluntary return. We also acknowledged the importance of closer coordination with international partners, making better use of tools such as Interpol and Europol,” Meloni announced on X (formerly Twitter) following her meeting with Starmer.

German conservatives presented their future candidate for chancellor on 17 September, as they began preparations for the Bundestag elections scheduled for September 2025. The leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, is known for his tough stance on illegal migration. And in his speech during the presentation, he named migration and economic policy as his two priorities, in that order. Recent polls in Germany, as well as election results in some federal states, suggest that voters welcome this stance.

Thus, Western Europe is embarking on a very tough reset of its migration policy, driven by the reality that illegal and uncontrolled migration is a serious problem, and voters are seeking safer environments amid global challenges.