Five Factors Shaping Ukraine’s Harsh Winter on the Frontlines
As temperatures plunge across eastern Ukraine, the country’s military is entering one of the most demanding phases of the war, confronted by a growing set of challenges.
The Gaze reports on it, referring to an analysis published by the Delphi Global Research Center.
The first factor is the shift in the military balance along the eastern front. Russia has entered strongholds it had attacked unsuccessfully for more than a year. Chasiv Yar – a strategic height that overlooks Kramatorsk – is now fully occupied.
Pokrovsk is close to encirclement, while Kupiansk and Kostyantynivka face similar pressure. These losses coincide with severe strain on Ukrainian troops.
The second factor is Ukraine’s intensifying use of deep strikes on Russian territory, which has become its most effective tool of 2025.
Attacks on oil terminals, refineries, and energy infrastructure have rattled Russia’s economy, undermining President Vladimir Putin’s trade surpluses and worsening living standards for ordinary Russians.
Yet, as Delphi notes, these blows “add to Russia’s losses, but not to Ukraine’s takeaways.” Despite the economic impact, deep strikes have not translated into regained territory or stabilized defensive lines in Donetsk, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhzhia.
A third decisive factor is Kyiv’s growing dependence on high-visibility defense technologies as a substitute for structural reforms.
Ukraine has heavily promoted breakthrough systems – from unmanned assault operations to new long-range drones and Fire Point’s “Flamingo” cruise missile.
These programs have attracted significant European investment at a moment when U.S. support has receded. But the report notes that production claims have often been inflated.
The fourth factor is rising political friction over defense procurement and anticorruption oversight. After years of relative unity, internal tensions resurfaced in 2024–2025.
The President’s Office moved to centralize drone budgets, removed senior procurement officials, and pursued new co-production schemes that relocate Ukrainian defense manufacturing to EU territory.
The situation escalated further when the government attempted to push legislation allowing the President’s Office to halt investigations by the Western-backed anticorruption agencies.
This was followed by a high-profile report that $150 million were stolen from contracts intended to protect critical energy infrastructure ahead of winter, deepening concerns about Ukraine’s ability to safeguard its own wartime resources.
Finally, the fifth factor is the strategic fork Ukraine now faces – one that the report describes as unavoidable.
One path is a dramatic militarization of Ukrainian society: a comprehensive mobilization of fighting-age men inside the country and abroad, a full audit of exemption (“bron”) systems widely exploited since 2022, and reallocation of personnel within the military away from low-impact desk posts into combat or production roles.
The other path is accepting further territorial losses. Delphi notes that even a political deal freezing the 2024 front line without formal recognition of Russian occupation, once difficult but conceivable, is now “already a pipe dream.”
Taken together, these five factors outline a winter in which Ukraine’s resilience will depend on political will, structural reforms, and the ability to confront long-awaited decisions.
Read more on The Gaze: Ukraine’s Government Action Program 2025–2026: Building a Resilient State Through Defense, Reforms, and European Integration